THE NORTHERN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS ASSESSMENT Phase 1 Report Northern Transportation Demand Assessment June 2010 NORTHERN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS ASSESSMENT PAGE 2 PROLOG /EBA PHASE 1 REPORT : TRANSPORTATION DEMAND ASSESSMENT THE NORTHERN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS ASSESSMENT Phase 1 Report Northern Transportation Demand Assessment Submitted to Transport Canada Submitted by PROLOG Canada Inc. In Association with EBA Engineering Consultants Ltd. June 2010 PROLOG /EBA PAGE 3 NORTHERN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS ASSESSMENT PAGE 4 PROLOG /EBA PHASE 1 REPORT : TRANSPORTATION DEMAND ASSESSMENT NORTHERN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS ASSESSMENT Phase 1 Report Northern Transportation Demand Assessment Table of Contents 1. Introduction and Summary .............................................................. 7 2. Contemporary Transportation Systems Demand .................................. 11 2.1 Sealift Systems Demand .......................................................................................................... 13 2.1.1 Eastern Dry Cargo System ............................................................................................ 15 2.1.2 Eastern Fuel Supply System ......................................................................................... 20 2.1.3 Western Sealift System ................................................................................................. 24 2.2 Intermodal Systems Demand ................................................................................................. 31 2.2.1 Mackenzie Intermodal System ..................................................................................... 31 2.2.2 Hudson Bay Intermodal System.................................................................................. 37 2.2.3 Inside Passage Intermodal System.............................................................................. 43 2.3 Trucking Systems Demand ..................................................................................................... 49 2.3.1 Yukon Heavy Haul Highway System ........................................................................... 51 2.3.2 NWT Highway and Winter Road Systems .................................................................. 65 2.4 Airport Systems Demand ....................................................................................................... 77 2.4.1 Northern Air Service Network ..................................................................................... 78 2.4.2 Passenger Traffic .......................................................................................................... 79 2.4.3 Air Cargo Traffic ........................................................................................................... 82 3. Emergent Resource Development Demand ......................................... 89 3.1 Yukon Mining & Energy Overview ......................................................................................... 90 3.1.2 Yukon Producing Mines (Low Scenario) ..................................................................... 92 3.1.3 Yukon Probable Mines (Medium Scenario) ................................................................ 92 3.1.3 Yukon Possible Mines (High Scenario) ....................................................................... 93 3.1.4 Yukon Energy Development......................................................................................... 94 3.2 NWT Mining and Energy ........................................................................................................ 99 3.2.1 NWT Producing Mines (Low Scenario) ..................................................................... 100 PROLOG /EBA PAGE 5 NORTHERN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS ASSESSMENT 3.2.2 NWT Probable Mines (Medium Scenario) ............................................................... 102 3.2.3 NWT Possible Mines (High Scenario) ...................................................................... 104 3.2.4 NWT Energy Development ........................................................................................ 104 3.3 Nunavut Mining and Energy Overview ............................................................................... 108 3.3.1 Nunavut Producing Mines (Low Scenario) ............................................................... 109 3.3.2 Nunavut Probable Mines (Medium Scenario) .......................................................... 109 3.3.3 Nunavut Possible Mines (High Scenario) ...................................................................111 3.3.4 Nunavut Oil and Gas ................................................................................................... 112 3.4 Northern Strategy Developments ......................................................................................... 113 3.4.1 The Canadian Arctic Research Initiative ................................................................... 113 3.4.2 Canadian Forces Army Training Centre .................................................................... 113 3.4.3 Arctic Deep Water Port ............................................................................................... 114 4. Consolidated Commodity Forecasts ................................................ 117 4.1 Community Resupply Traffic Forecasts ................................................................................ 118 4.1.1 Nunavut Community Resupply ................................................................................... 119 4.1.2 NWT Community Resupply ....................................................................................... 120 4.1.3 Yukon Community Resupply ...................................................................................... 121 4.2 Resource Development Traffic Forecasts .............................................................................122 4.2.1 Yukon Resource Development ....................................................................................124 4.2.2 NWT Resource Development .................................................................................... 126 4.3.3 Nunavut Resource Development .............................................................................. 129 5. Future System Performance ......................................................... 131 Appendix .................................................................................... 133 Nunavut Socio-Economic Differences ........................................................................................134 Northern Marine Voyages (2009 Sailings) ................................................................................139 Resource Development Projects Detailed Demand Forecast ....................................................143 Community Resupply Traffic Forecasting Methodology .......................................................... 148 Highway Statistical Development – Yukon & NWT ................................................................. 149 Scheduled Northern Air Service and Representative Aircraft .................................................. 161 Stakeholder Interviews ............................................................................................................... 164 PAGE 6 PROLOG /EBA PHASE 1 REPORT : TRANSPORTATION DEMAND ASSESSMENT NORTHERN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS ASSESSMENT Phase 1 Report Northern Transportation Demand Assessment 1. Introduction and Summary This is the Phase 1 Report of the Northern Transportation Systems Assessment. The purpose of the Phase 1 Report is to profile current and future traffic demand for each modal system in the North. Subsequently in Phase 2, traffic allocation among modes will be reassessed in terms of emerging economic, resource development and environmental changes impacting both transportation system performance and infrastructure requirements. The scope of Phase 1 work embraces the surface and air transport systems of Nunavut, The Northwest Territories and Yukon and their extensions into southern Canada and Alaska. This Phase 1 Demand Report is based upon primary data sources obtained through interviews and surveys conducted with all major transportation system stakeholders in government and industry. The Phase 1 Report has established current traffic demand for the following modal transportation systems: Total Freight in 2009 in Tonnes Transportation Community Resupply Resource Projects Bulk Fuel Total System General Freight General Freight Supply Inbound Eastern Sealift 54,500 39,100 139,900 233,500 Western Sealift 3,750 3,850 58,900 66,500 Hudson Bay 4,300 27,300 38,500 70,100 Mackenzie River 8,900 3,900 26,200 39,000 Inside Passage * 59,400 24,100 64,000 147,500 Mackenzie Rail * 8,500 1,700 201,300 211,500 NWT Highways 163,000 48,000 300,000 511,000 Yukon Highways 371,000 143,900 121,900 636,800 Total Inbound * 605,350 266,050 685,400 1,556,900 Air Freight 20,000 Mineral Exports 54,000 Total Tonnes 1,630,900 * Mackenzie Rail and Inside Passage Tonnes included in Highway and River Tonnes, and excluded from Total Tonnes. PROLOG /EBA PAGE 7 NORTHERN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS ASSESSMENT From these current demand statistics the following traffic split shows that: • Yukon Highways carry the most northern traffic (over 40%); • Nunavut Sealift and NWT Mackenzie River traffic is about a quarter of the total; • Northwest Territories Highways carry a third of northern traffic and of that total; • Fuel is approximately 60% of the Northwest Territories Highways traffic total. Current Inbound