2011 RN V E ME O N G T E O – H F T 12 GOVERNMENT MID-YEAR FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS STATEMENT 12 GOVERNMENT MID-YEAR FINANCIAL W A E I S L T A ER R N A U S T 2011-12 Government Mid-year Financial Projections Statement December 2011 cover_MYR2011.indd 1 14/12/2011 9:21:49 AM RN V E ME O N G T E O H F T W A E I S L T A ER R N A U S T 2011–12 Government Mid-year Financial Projections Statement DECEMBER 2011 2011-12 Government Mid-year Financial Projections Statement © Government of Western Australia 2011 Further information or enquiries related to this report may be obtained by emailing [email protected] An electronic copy of this report may be obtained at http://www.treasury.wa.gov.au ISSN 1444-9110 (print) ISSN 1839-9002 (on-line) 2011-12 GOVERNMENT MID-YEAR FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS STATEMENT TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD ..................................................................................................................... i CHAPTER 1: FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS ...............................................................1 Overview ......................................................................................................................................1 General Government Sector .........................................................................................................9 Total Public Sector .....................................................................................................................21 Net Debt and Other Liabilities ...................................................................................................25 Statement of Risks......................................................................................................................28 CHAPTER 2: FINANCIAL STRATEGY....................................................................33 Overview ....................................................................................................................................33 Financial Targets ........................................................................................................................35 CHAPTER 3: THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY .................................43 Overview ....................................................................................................................................43 International Conditions.............................................................................................................46 Domestic Economic Activity .....................................................................................................47 International Trade .....................................................................................................................52 Labour Market............................................................................................................................53 Inflation ......................................................................................................................................54 Risks...........................................................................................................................................54 APPENDIX 1: DETAILED FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS .....................................57 APPENDIX 2: GENERAL GOVERNMENT OPERATING REVENUE ..............83 APPENDIX 3: MAJOR SPENDING CHANGES SINCE BUDGET .....................87 APPENDIX 4: THE TREASURER’S ADVANCE...................................................115 APPENDIX 5: GOVERNMENT TRADING ENTERPRISE EFFICIENCY DIVIDEND...............................................................................................................121 APPENDIX 6: ROYALTIES FOR REGIONS..........................................................127 Foreword This Government Mid-year Financial Projections Statement (mid-year review) outlines developments in Western Australia’s economic and financial outlook since finalisation of the 2011-12 State Budget, which was presented to Parliament on 19 May 2011. It has been prepared under my instruction, and is based upon Government decisions I was aware of, or that were made available to me by the Treasurer, by close of business on the mid-year review cut-off date of 1 December 2011. The mid-year review does not include the impact of any decisions that may have been taken, or other issues arising, after the cut-off date. The financial projections are informed by the economic assumptions outlined in Chapter 3: The Western Australian Economy, which were also finalised on 1 December 2011. The mid-year review financial projections comply with external reporting standards including Australian Accounting Standards Board AASB 1049: Whole of Government and General Government Sector Financial Reporting and, where appropriate, Government Finance Statistics standards, promulgated in Australia by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. They are compiled using financial estimates provided by State public sector agencies that are consistent with Australian Accounting Standards. The disclosures in this publication meet the mid-year review requirements of both the Uniform Presentation Framework, agreed by the Australian Loan Council, and the Government Financial Responsibility Act 2000. Unless otherwise stated, financial data for 2010-11 included in this publication (for comparative purposes) are consistent with final audited data contained in the 2010-11 Annual Report on State Finances, released on 22 September 2011. Timothy Marney UNDER TREASURER December 2011 i CHAPTER 1 Financial Projections Overview Risks to the global economic outlook have intensified significantly since the 2011-12 Budget. International financial markets have fallen on the back of ongoing concerns with the European sovereign debt crisis and a slower than expected recovery in the United States economy. This has led to significant volatility in recent months in the $US/$A exchange rate and commodity prices. Royalty revenue has subsequently been revised downwards since budget-time due to the impact of lower iron ore, oil and base metal prices. Moreover, a higher $US/$A exchange rate (projected to average US101.6 cents for 2011-12, compared with US97.5 cents at budget-time) has resulted in a downward revision in royalty revenue of more than $970 million over the budget and forward estimates period. Nevertheless, Western Australia’s domestic economic outlook remains strong and positive, with economic growth projections broadly consistent with expectations at budget-time. The substantial pipeline of investment in the resources sector continues to underpin healthy levels of economic activity and the prospect of strong export growth in the future. According to Deloitte Access Economics’ Investment Monitor September quarter 2011, the total value of expected business investment has increased to $268.4 billion. Projects ‘under construction’ valued at $84.8 billion represent more than a quarter of the national total. The ‘pipeline’ of projects (those listed as ‘committed’ or ‘under construction’) total $137.4 billion, representing over a third of the national total. As a consequence, demand for labour in the State has been strong, resulting in solid employment and earnings growth, and an unemployment rate that is the lowest in the nation (apart from the two Territories). Gross State Product has been revised up to 4.75%, the second highest in the nation (up from 4.5% at budget-time), and 4.25% in both 2012-13 and 2013-14 (up from 4.0% at budget-time). Payroll tax collections have also been better than forecast, which has led to a $105 million upward revision to the 2011-12 estimate. 1 2011-12 Government Mid-year Financial Projections Statement Despite the strong labour market, the State’s housing market remains weak, with both house prices and sales volumes trending lower than the budget-time forecasts. This weakness in the housing market has resulted in significant downward revisions to transfer duty1 forecasts, of $103 million in 2011-12 and a total of $775 million over the four years to 2014-15. The weaker projections for royalty revenue and transfer duty have led to a lower general government sector operating surplus of $209 million in 2011-12 (compared with $442 million projected at budget-time). However, Western Australia’s surplus is one of only two surpluses forecast by States across the country (Victoria is projecting a $148 million surplus for 2011-12). New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania are all forecasting deficits, as is the Commonwealth. A lower cash position as a result of the revised surplus outlook means that additional borrowings are required to fund the Government’s record Asset Investment Program which totals $27.5 billion over the forward estimates period. When combined with some significant post-budget decisions on major infrastructure projects such as expansion of the Southern Seawater Desalination Plant, initial spending on Perth’s New Major Stadium, and non-clinical services at the new Fiona Stanley Hospital, this has seen projected net debt levels reach $23.9 billion by 30 June 2015. Nonetheless, projected net debt levels continue to remain very affordable and consistent with a triple-A credit rating. In this regard, total non-financial public sector net interest costs as a share of revenue are projected to reach 2.7% by 2014-15, well below the Government’s target limit of 4.5%, and the net financial liabilities to revenue ratio is projected to peak at 73.3% in 2012-13, well below a credit rating review ‘trigger’ ratio of 90% identified by