t The Howey Political Report ... 1·219-420-0909 ll'il10/18/94 <Sl11:18PM Cl1/8 Thursday, Oct 20, 1994 EXCLUSIVE Volume 1, Number 11 Pag 1of8 Surging Souder, Hostettler to get help The from national GOP WASHINGTON - Republican challengers Mark Souder and John Hostettler in the 4th and 8th Congressional Districts have been Bowey selected by the Republican National Congressional Campaign Committee to be fully funded in the last three weeks before election day. The two surging challengers join 2nd CD Repubfioan David Political Mcintosh as races that will receive $60,000 in ooordinated campaign aotivities and oash. ''We think Indiana is going to be a very good state for us, 11 said Dan Leonard, communications director for the RNCC. UWe are Report encouraged by recent developments." The Howey Political Report elevated both races into its Horse The weekly briermg Race "toss up" category on Sept 29. Before then, most attention in on Indiana politics Indiana, and particularly in the Indianapolis media market. centered on the 2nd and 7th CDs in central Indiana. Other analysts are following suit. Charles Cook of the Cook The Howey Political Report is PoliticaJ Report declared Hostettler's challenge to U.S. Rep. Frank published. by The Newsletter Center, MoCloskey a toss up last week Earlier this week, Stuart Rothenberg a subsidiary of Nixon Newspapers Inc. of the Rothenberg Political Report added the 4th and 8th CDs into his Brian A. Howey, editor "toss up" category, noting that "the appearance of a wave in Indiana 1707 N. Anthony Blvd. has suddenly placed two Democrats, Frank MoCloskey'ancl Jill Long, Fort Wayne, IN 46805 in considerable jeopardy." 219-420-0909 Two recent polle give Souder and Hostettler identical 46-43 219-426-0909 percent leads over MoCloskey and Long. Another poll conducted by the Indiana Republican State Committee gave Hostettler a 41-40 per­ Fax: 219-420-0909 cent lead Said one high-placed Democratic insider who requested CompuSeJVe: 75141,51 anonymity. "Frank is in big trouble." The Huwey Politica.C Rllporl is an in.dtlpmdllnl, Sources tell HPR that two weeks ago, U.S. Sen. Dan Coats non-partisan n~slallt!r analyzing the polil.ic:al oontaoted the RNCC and implored funding for l::oth races. proc:ess in Indiana. It neither endor:ses candidala Particularly startling is Long's erosion of support Going into nor advocates positions ofpublic: paliq. the faJI sequence, the three-term Demoorat appeared to be withstand­ ing the national trends after she parted ways with President Clinton copyright, The Howey Politic:al Report, 1994 on sooh key issues as NAFTA and the first Clinton budget Even more CONTINUED ON PAGE 2 Quote Of The Week: Inside Features: "Let's face it: Americans • Horse Race: It's still ''To8s Up City," page 3 are lousy followers. We admire • Phillips/Garton upsefs "at 1irst blush"? page 3 power, yet fear it. We like to • Senate Watch: Bradbury/Wyss update, page 4 unload responsibilities on our leaders, yet we dislike being •Perhaps We Wander: Jeffers and dumge, page S bossed around." • Columnists: Royko, Mareus, Pulliam, page 6 • Thomas E. Cronin • Musings: Daley and Hudnut chat, page 7 New York Times • Humor Mill: Bjg Dog Political Report? page 8 • The Howeir Polltieal Report ll'l110/18/94 Page 2 ·~------1'._h_e_li_"q_w_e:::..tv..::.P...:o:.:...:!E:.:...:.t!iic:.:...:a::~l:....:J.:.:...:·~e:!:p:..:o:.:.r~::..' __________::::.0~11:.20, 1994 Souder-HostEf~i:I 1r. trom page 1 i; ntil"e oampaign on conneoting Democrat ,J '>1~ Hogsett 't,o Pr~1id1ent Clintcin His latest ad, taken on r.· .1~ from last noteworthy is that at the Sept 30 finaroial reporting peri­ 1 od, Souder held a S::!C'2,267 to $174,479 money advan­ spri11g s speoial eleotion in K ntuoky, "me r1. I· S' Hogse1tllns tage over the inoumbe1nt f.ace1 into Clinton's. It's a risk because as lh3L!, ad hit the air, 0 a pcnll Brian ltJar~ijlUS conducted for the lno'if.i!niiJPOlis . "You weren~t €iS a.:atounded as we were, s~uder • said of his oeimpangn funding lead His oampaign I.Aili StaJMnSH-TV revealed that Clinton's job mrnoval rating in reoeive a further bocet when former Vice President Dan tlhe 2nd CD haicl risen from the low 30s tl1 1 ·1· ~ mid to upper Quayle comes to !Fort Wayne to campaign on Oct. 31. t!IOs in the last month. That is a signficant development Souder said in an HPR "Glimo1111 hae bcon on a two-we1ik ·~print," said interview in early Se1p1ember that he was reluctant to aslk Democra,1:ic strategist Bill Schreiber. "If I 1~1 ' r ~ a Republic:i.n, I'd be wary of that.• for a Quayle appeanitnce because ~ he lost the former vice president's district arte:r such a visit. it would reflect poorly Leonard counters that foreign rel a 1. •: ns victories don't hav:! the onough positive impact 1o ic:1,11 !rcome ov~~r­ on Quayle. While Long will likely receive a significant cam­ seas blunde s. "If President Clinton goes 111 he Middle paign funding b:>o,st a1'ter the reporling period, the iact that !:a.st a week oefore the election, that me.:11·11; their cancli­ daks don't want him. He'd be safer in Jof1r;la11n. 11 ii noma:3 E Cronin of the New Yorilr: rimes sumTied ..lncumb 111ts '~Ei ry o·ften have not had rr,ucf1 111 up part c '.Clinton's problems witll voters. 1-le lacks dlisci­ to fear. In the la:s~ two elections that's !begun plin-e sLnd focrus He vaoillates and prooras1lli1i1ates. He ti·nes to shift anid It may be that we"ll'e at the most to please ev,eryone and he is a relentlesli :1:~pinmaster. 11-!is acut stage o~ th at shift.•• " • Mlichael Dcwrm advisera don't i1nspire much confidence." · But Cremin adds this about u5: 11 L1Rl'~ 1 ~:> face it Souder was leadfrig lier at such a late date is remari.table Americans are lousy followers. We admil"e power, yet tl'ear given that he had onll' $10,000 at 1Jhe June 30 reportirg rt. VVe like to unload all our responsibiliti~r~' on our leaders, period. In early Augus:t, Rothenberg was calling Long 11a ~1ret we dislik1e being bossed around We c r= ·11 !brate the indi­ clear favorite" and said that Souder would need ua big vidual and the idea that one person can maL!te a differeroe, Republican wave" k• become competrtive. 11et we inher,ently suspect those who ha•vie1 11 iade it to t~1e Republican::: apparently are preparing their surf nop - especially those at the top of large 1r1 ;1 itutions.a boards. A Times-Mirror poll la.sit week gave Repub.ic-ans an Tha:it, eocplaine Downe, is not lirn 'ei :::t to the presi­ astounding 62-40 p:\r.;ent lead in a generic national coo­ dency w: all instrtutions in general. "The I• ic t that in::IJ!m­ gressional vote. In 1 :~92, with a mere 3 percent lead in the ber~s are eH:her !behind or locked in tigh~ 1 '1c es is not as same poll, 'the GOP won 1O House seats. An Associated surrprising as it is remarkable, 11 Downs sai1,;. "\f\Aien yon.i Press poll conducte,:l by ICR Survey Research Group tak•:l a look at the record in the past deca· , e1 incumbents • revealed tlla:t 35 perc 1:int said their current representative ha11ie very ofte·1 not had mt.eh to fear. Tl'IE1 i had name deserved :re-election and 64 percern said it was time for reo1ognition, mciney and the ease of free p1J! ~icity. In the someone new. last two E·lections that's begun to shift and it may be tha~ 1 "If tho new lil'nC'.e-MitTOr poll is an actual reflec­ 1Ne re at 1the most aoute stage of that shHt"" tion of the electio1n, 1tlhen the Republicans are going to take Downs added, 0 11 there were a t.·111 d well-organized over the House," Rothenberg said. "We are reiterating our 1Party, both Demoorats and Republicans 1~,1,:11.~d be hurt by estimate of House IFle~publican gains of at least 30 sea.ts it. tf Roos P ~rot lhta.d been running third 1)1Slrt:ir oandidatas, 0 and we believe that Democratic control of 1he House is in !lhe outcomes WOIUld be very different. j opardy. 11 The reas1::in Indiana Democrats are in tro1.b e C~uay~e enters 2nd C~l::ll fray seems to be Bill Cliriton. I MUMGIE -A TV ad by Secreta1)1' m: State Joe ''The Repul ·li1:xim have suooeed in nationalizing · H<>gseU all :.g~::s that while serving on 1hei this election, 0 Roth~. nlberg explained. rrhe DNC · Compe1:tiv~m1-.99 Council, David Molntos.h r:·ried to "repeal (Democratic Nati<:>ml Cornmitte~.lhas acknowledged that rules ti" :1t pro1ect Indiana workers and c:n ·1 rurners from it's worked. Now Cl. n on ijs trying to cast the contract the ce.ncer-.:::aLsing ohemioals." Republicans. signed c!.S a Reagan versus Clinton, and a Ille ad also said that Mcintosh "11:111'en tried toi Bush versus. Clinton.'" blii::>ck W<~mirg labels designed to protet~t 1::hildren." Said Sou1cfor of Long, "If slhe wants to ma<e it Laite Tuesday night, former Vic 1ei President 0;8111 Clinton veisius Rea;~an.