OCTOBER 2017 PKU–Lincoln Center’s 10th Anniversary GIS-Assisted Mass Appraisal, Shenzhen-Style Sponge Cities, Panda Habitat, and the Nature Conservancy Contents OCTOBER 2017 | VOL 29 | NO 4 EDITOR Maureen Clarke FEATURES DEPARTMENTS PRESIDENT & CEO George W. McCarthy 8 Virtual Valuation 2 Message from the President CHAIR & CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER Kathryn J. Lincoln GIS-Assisted Mass Appraisal in Shenzhen The Future of the PKU–Lincoln Center DESIGN & PRODUCTION One of the few countries without a property tax, George W. McCarthy Sarah Rainwater Design www.srainwater.com China has developed what many consider the world’s most advanced valuation system. Marrying 5 Message from the PRODUCTION EDITOR Susan Pace computer-assisted mass appraisal with GIS tools, President Emeritus the Shenzhen Assessment Center can calculate the The PKU–Lincoln Center in Retrospect market value of a property’s view, natural light, and THE LINCOLN INSTITUTE OF LAND POLICY other transient features from a desktop computer. Gregory K. Ingram is an independent, nonpartisan organization whose mission is to help solve global economic, By Tom Nunlist social, and environmental challenges to improve 8 29 City Tech the quality of life through creative approaches WeChat Pay Shapes Street Life in China to the use, taxation, and stewardship of land. As a private operating foundation whose origins Rob Walker date to 1946, the Lincoln Institute seeks to inform public dialogue and decisions about 14 The Drone Revolution land policy through research, training, and UAV-Generated Geodata Sharpens 32 New Policy Focus Report effective communication. By bringing together scholars, practitioners, public officials, policy Land Policy from Latin America to China Revitalizing America’s Smaller Legacy makers, journalists, and involved citizens, the Lincoln Institute integrates theory and practice From Latin America to China, drones are creating Cities: Strategies for Postindustrial and provides a forum for multidisciplinary high-resolution photographs and 3-D models Success from Gary to Lowell perspectives on public policy concerning land, that help update territorial cadastres, document both in the United States and internationally. By Torey Hollingsworth and Alison Goebel informal development, recover from natural disasters, inform GIS-assisted mass appraisal of Land Lines is published quarterly in January/ property, and address other land use challenges. February, April, July, and October to report on Policy can barely keep pace as UAVs revolutionize Institute-sponsored programs. 14 and democratize data collection. By John Wihbey Lincoln Institute of Land Policy 113 Brattle St, Cambridge, MA 02138 T (617) 661-3016 or (800) 526-3873 F (617) 661-7235 or (800) 526-3944 22 Sponge Cities and Panda Habitat EMAIL FOR EDITORIAL CONTENT The Nature Conservancy’s Foray into China [email protected] EMAIL FOR INFORMATION SERVICES The Nature Conservancy China is partnering with the [email protected] PKU–Lincoln Center on two major land-based green initiatives: Shenzhen’s sponge city project will www.lincolninst.edu mitigate floods by absorbing rainfall with bioswales, rain gardens, and other green infrastructure. And the Laohegou Reserve in Sichuan province will be China’s first land trust, preserving 27,000 acres of giant Shenzhen city in China. Credit: pa_YON/ 22 panda habitat. Getty Images By James N. Levitt and Emily Myron 2 LAND LINES OCTOBER 2017 1 MESSAGE FROM THE PRESIDENT GEORGE W. McCARTHY implications for land and housing policies in both People’s Congress, Ministry of Finance, the the megacities and the second- and third-tier Ministry of Land and Resources, Ministry of The Future of the cities that are receiving new migrants. Housing and Urban and Rural Development, State The housing market, a significant tailwind for Administration of Taxation, Development PKU–Lincoln Center economic development over the last decade, Research Center of the State Council, China has become a major impediment to growth in Center for International Economic Exchange, and recent years. China’s fast-rising house prices China Land Survey and Planning Institute in are an artifact of widespread speculation by a topical areas such as property taxation, munici- fast-growing middle class looking for good yields pal finance, land policy, housing policy, and land on long-term investments. In past years, this conservation. investment was encouraged by the national ON OCTOBER 14, WE WILL CELEBRATE THE 10TH grew by leaps and bounds using land-based government, which recognized that property It is hard to imagine a more extraordinary ANNIVERSARY OF THE PEKING UNIVERSITY–LINCOLN financing. China now has more than 100 cities with development would significantly drive up GDP. decade in China’s remarkable economic INSTITUTE CENTER FOR URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND over 1 million residents and some 15 “megacities” However, increasing shortages of affordable LAND POLICY, MORE AFFECTIONATELY KNOWN AS THE or urban agglomerations with populations over housing are now becoming a big problem in history than the last one. Ten years ago, PKU–LINCOLN CENTER, OR PLC. To commemorate 10 million. In 2007, only Shanghai and Beijing many cities, locking out first-time home buyers. China’s annual GDP growth was 14.2 percent, the occasion, we are dedicating this issue of were home to this many people, according to the This trend has been accompanied by a decline in a near-peak in the post-reform era, culminat- Land Lines to illustrate some of the PLC’s land United Nations Department of Economic and land-based financing for municipalities as land policy work in contemporary China. While it is Social Affairs. reforms have curtailed the practice. Recently, the ing a 25-year run of double-digit average impossible to cover the broad set of activities During the decade, the economy lost some central government signaled a new policy direction increases in real GDP. Importantly, this growth and issues addressed by the PLC, we hope that momentum, and policy makers adjusted to a when President Xi Jinping stated that “Houses are was fueled by land. the stories presented here will represent the “new normal” of roughly 7 percent annual real GDP built for living, not for speculation.” At the same relevance and rigor of our work. Since its growth—but this is still twice the rate of global time, lenders have begun rationing credit to cool founding, the PLC has both observed and GDP growth, positioning China to double the size housing demand. The PLC will continue to track participated in land policy formation in China. In of its economy in the next decade. The dizzying the housing sector to see whether it can help this message, I will reflect on the future of the performance of the last few decades drove major craft a “soft landing” for it. PLC in light of our experiences over the last population migrations from rural to urban areas. Urbanization in China, as in other countries, decade and the current trends we’ve observed. When the PLC launched in 2007, China was was accompanied by a dramatic decline in poverty In addition, we’ve asked Lincoln Institute urbanizing at an unprecedented pace, adding more as well as increased inequality in the early years. President Emeritus Gregory K. Ingram to provide than 20 million urban residents annually. In 2007, But in this regard, China departed from some a retrospective reflection on the Lincoln 45 percent of China’s population was urban, up international patterns: Although inequality, as Institute’s program in China. Dr. Ingram and from 20 percent in 1980. Today, the population is 57 measured by the Gini coefficient, rose steadily Peking University President Lin Jianhua were percent urban and is expected to reach 60 percent from the 1980s until 2010, it has been declining the PLC’s principal architects, bringing the by 2020. A significant share of new urban growth since 2012. We expect that this is not the only way center to fruition in October 2007. occurred in the increasing number of megacities that China’s transformation will break from It is hard to imagine a more extraordinary such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. common development patterns. The habit of decade in China’s remarkable economic history China’s unprecedented growth and mass urban breaking from common, historic development At the Beijing Forum 2016 Panel Session II: Global Megacities, and than the last one. Ten years ago, China’s annual migration generated both intended and unintend- patterns is testament to China’s ability to study Regional Coordinated Development, Kate Austermiller, Zhi Liu, George GDP growth was 14.2 percent, a near-peak in the ed consequences. For example, the rapid expan- and learn from the experiences of other countries, W. McCarthy, Canfei He, Tao Jin, and Xinrui Shi. Credit: PLC post-reform era, culminating a 25-year run of sion of megacities is beginning to level off. Many a process in which the PLC has played a role. double-digit average increases in real GDP. This young professionals have begun gravitating toward In the last decade, the PLC contributed to growth rate, more than double that of global second- and third-tier cities instead. When policy debates by nimbly and quickly mobilizing A hallmark contribution of the PLC over the GDP, propelled the nation’s global economic surveyed, recent migrants indicated four main international experts connected to global Lincoln last decade has been knowledge dissemination stature so that China now challenges the United reasons for their moves: high housing costs in Institute networks. In the coming decade, we and policy advice on the property tax law, States for worldwide economic dominance. megacities, stress from the frenetic pace of life, expect to respond similarly to requests for property value assessment, and local tax Importantly, this growth was fueled by land. difficulty managing the care of aging parents, and high-level international exchange from govern- administration. While the National Property Tax Huge infrastructure investments facilitated air pollution.