Modelling and Simulation for Fisheries Management Sigríður Sigurðardóttir Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of a Philosophiae Doctor degree in Industrial Engineering Advisor Dr. Gunnar Stefánsson Ph.D. Committee Sigurjón Arason Dr. Sveinn Margeirsson Dr. Birgir Hrafnkelsson Dr. Páll Jensson Opponents Dr. Villy Christensen Dr. Ronald Pelot Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Computer Science School of Engineering and Natural Sciences University of Iceland Reykjavik, May 2016 Modelling and Simulation for Fisheries Management Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of a Philosophiae Doctor degree in Industrial Engineering Copyright © 2016 Sigríður Sigurðardóttir All rights reserved Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Computer Science School of Engineering and Natural Sciences University of Iceland Hjardarhaga 2-6 107, Reykjavik Iceland Telephone: (354) 525 4000 Bibliographic information: Sigríður Sigurðardóttir, 2016, Modelling and Simulation for Fisheries Management, Ph.D. dissertation, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Iceland, 92 pp. ISBN 978-9935-9307-5-0 Printing: Háskólaprent Reykjavik, Iceland, May 2016 Abstract Fishing is central to the livelihood and food security of millions of people throughout the globe. Fisheries managers of the world are faced with various challenges including overcapacity, discarding of catches and unprofitable fishing fleets. Fisheries can be seen as a combination of a biophysical and a human system and simulation models can help develop an understanding of systems and support managerial decision making. Models can be developed to evaluate the impact of management decisions on different parts in the system, such as the health of fish stocks, employment and profits. Different management decisions include changes in effort restrictions, quota allocation or a landing obligation. The aim of this Ph.D. research was to contribute to improved fisheries management. The overall purpose was to select applicable modelling techniques, develop models and simulate the dynamics of fisheries management with the aim of comparing different management strategies by looking at their impact on selected indicators. The indicators are biological, economic or social. The main contribution of the research is the introduction of methods which have either not previously been applied in fisheries management or only to a limited extent. The research is interdisciplinary as it combines modelling and simulation methods from engineering with fisheries science which is multidisciplinary and builds on ecology, economics and sociology. Three models were developed; a hybrid system dynamics-discrete event simulation model, a system dynamics model and a model from a new simulation method inspired by agent flocking. A special study was dedicated to the issue of discarding of fish where the strengths and weaknesses of different mitigation measures were systematically evaluated along with any opportunities and threats that they might entail. Útdráttur Milljónir manna um allan heim byggja afkomu sína á fiskveiðum og gegna þær mikilvægu hlutverki í fæðuöryggi jarðarbúa. Fiskveiðistjórnun er vandasamt verkefni sem tekst á við fjölda áskorana, þ.m.t. of stóran flota, brottkast og óarðbærar veiðar. Líta má á fiskveiðar sem kerfi sem einkennast af samspili manna við náttúruauðlindir. Tölvuvædd hermilíkön eru gagnleg til þess að auka skilning á þeim sem og styðja við ákvarðanir tengdar stjórnun veiða. Líkön gagnast til þess að meta áhrif breytinga á stjórnun veiða á ólíka þætti, svo sem fiskistofna, atvinnu og afkomu. Breytingarnar eru til dæmis sóknartakmarkanir, breyting á úthlutun kvóta eða krafa um að allur afli komi að landi. Markmið rannsóknarinnar var að stuðla að bættri fiskveiðistjórnun. Tilgangurinn var að þróa líkön og herma fiskveiðistjórnunarkerfi með það að markmiði að bera saman ólíkar nálganir í stjórnun veiða. Það er gert með því að líta á áhrif þeirra á valdar breytur sem eru ýmist hagrænar, líffræðilegar eða félagslegar. Meginframlag rannsóknarinnar felst í að kynna aðferðir sem hingað til hafa lítið eða ekki verið nýttar á þessum vettvangi. Rannsóknin er þverfagleg og sameinar líkangerð og hermun sem á rætur að rekja til verkfræði og sjávarútvegsfræði sem byggir á vistfræði, hagfræði og félagsfræði. Þrjú líkön voru þróuð, blendings (e. hybrid) hermilíkan sem samanstendur af kviku kerfislíkani (e. system dynamics model) og strjálu-atburða hermilíkani (e. discrete-event simulation model) og nýrri tegund líkana sem er í ætt við einingalíkön (e. agent-based models). Einn angi rannsóknarinnar fjallaði um brottkast en þar voru tólf aðferðir til að draga úr brottkasti metnar kerfisbundið með svokallaðri SVÓT greiningu sem felur í sér að greina styrkleika, veikleika, tækifæri og ógnanir. List of appended papers The thesis is based on the work contained in the following papers: Paper I Sigríður Sigurðardóttir, Björn Johansson, Sveinn Margeirsson, and Jónas R. Viðarsson, “Assessing the Impact of Policy Changes in the Icelandic Cod Fishery Using a Hybrid Simulation Model,” The Scientific World Journal, vol. 2014, Article ID 707943, 8 pages, 2014. doi:10.1155/2014/707943 An earlier version of this paper was presented at Simultech, 3rd international conference on simulation and modelling methodologies, technologies and applications 2013 in Reykjavík, July 2013. The paper was nominated as the best student paper. Paper II Sigríður Sigurðardóttir, Sveinn Agnarsson, Gunnar Stefánsson, Jónas R. Viðarsson, Sveinn Margeirsson. (2015). A system dynamics model for analysing and managing the lumpsucker fishery in Iceland. Submitted to Marine Policy. Paper III Sigríður Sigurðardóttir, Lee Schruben. (2014) A new approach to simulating fisheries data for policy making. Natural Resource Modeling, vol. 2, no.3, 411-428. Paper IV Sigríður Sigurðardóttir, Jónas R. Viðarsson, Sveinn Margeirsson. (2013). A system dynamics approach to assess the impact of policy changes in the Icelandic demersal fishery. In conference proceedings for the 31st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. Paper V Sigríður Sigurðardóttir, Elísabet Kemp Stefánsdóttir, Harriet Condie, Sveinn Margeirsson, Thomas L. Catchpole, Jose M. Bellido, Søren Qvist Eliasen, Raquel Goñi, Niels Madsen, Andreas Palialexis, Sebastian S. Uhlmann, Vassiliki Vassilopoulou, Jordan Feekings, Marie-Joëlle Rochet, How can discards in European fisheries be mitigated? Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of potential mitigation methods, Marine Policy, vol 51, no. 1, Pages 366-374 Paper VI Sigríður Sigurðardóttir, Sveinn Margeirsson, Sigurjón Arason, Birgir Hrafnkelsson, Páll Jensson, Gunnar Stefánsson. Modelling fisheries management; Exploration of novel methods. Submitted to Marine Policy. vi Table of Contents List of appended papers ..................................................................................................... vi List of Figures ..................................................................................................................... ix List of Tables ........................................................................................................................ x Abbreviations ...................................................................................................................... xi Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................... xiii 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Purpose and research questions ............................................................................... 3 1.3 Scope and delimitation ............................................................................................ 4 1.4 Thesis outline .......................................................................................................... 5 1.4.1 The covering paper ........................................................................................ 5 1.4.2 Appended papers ............................................................................................ 6 2 Frame of reference .......................................................................................................... 9 2.1 Simulation methods and fisheries management ...................................................... 9 2.1.1 Bio-economic models .................................................................................. 10 2.1.2 Management strategy evaluation framework ............................................... 10 2.1.3 Flocking algorithm ....................................................................................... 11 2.1.4 System dynamics ......................................................................................... 11 2.1.5 Discrete event simulation ............................................................................. 12 2.1.6 Agent-based simulation ............................................................................... 12 2.2 Discarding of fish .................................................................................................. 13 3 Research methodology .................................................................................................