MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook June 2020 to January 2021 Crisis (IPC Phase 3) likely to persist in Mozambique through early 2021 KEY MESSAGES • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in the semiarid areas of Current food security outcomes, June 2020 southern Mozambique following crop failure and/or significantly below-average main season production. As the conflict intensifies in Cabo Delgado, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes also persist in this area, as an increasing number of people are displaced and lose access to their typical food and income sources. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are mostly present in areas where poor households are still recovering from previous shocks (cyclones, floods, and drought). In all other areas of the country, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected due to favorable food availability and access. Beginning in October 2020, food security is likely to deteriorate across southern Tete and other southern and central areas as poor households will have exhausted their below-average food stocks much earlier than usual and be employing unsustainable coping strategies driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. • As of June 29, Mozambique has 883 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Measures to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 have resulted in thousands of poor households in urban and peri-urban areas losing sources of income. A recent IPC analysis carried out by the Technical Secretariat for Food Security and Nutrition (SETSAN) and partners estimated that approximately 15 percent of the population of Source: FEWS NET Maputo and Matola are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. • In May, the price of maize grain in central and northern markets decreased or remained stable. In the south, the price of maize grain has started to decrease due to increased supply of maize grain from the central region. However, the price of maize grain in these areas remains 20-60 percent above the five-year average. The price of maize meal and rice remained stable in May, except in Maputo, where the price of rice rose by 40 percent likely due to some temporary supply constraints. SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET Mozambique FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not [email protected] necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International www.fews.net/mozambique Development or the United States Government. MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook June 2020 to January 2021 NATIONAL OVERVIEW Current Situation Projected food security outcomes, June to September 2020 Most rural households in central and northern Mozambique are relatively food secure and consuming their recently harvested crops from the 2019/20 agricultural season. However, in the southern semiarid areas of Gaza, Inhambane, northern Maputo, and the southern portions of Manica and Sofala provinces, poor rural households are facing food gaps driven by the third consecutive year of drought and resulting poor production and higher food prices. In Cabo Delgado, poor households are also facing food consumption gaps as a result of the impacts of ongoing conflict. In urban and peri-urban areas, poor households who have lost the ability to engage in their basic livelihood activities due to COVID-19 control measures are also struggling to meet their food needs. According to the May 10, 2020 Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) and field reports, estimates for grain maize production in southern Mozambique indicate crop ‘failure’ or significantly below-average production at more than 70 percent below average (Figure 1). In these areas, very poor and poor households without own production to consume or sell have insufficient income for market food purchases and are unable to meet their Source: FEWS NET minimum food needs. The most vulnerable households, have prematurely Projected food security outcomes, October begun engaging in unsustainable strategies including reducing the frequency 2020 to January 2021 and quantity of meals, withdrawing children from school, consuming seeds, and eating wild foods up to five months earlier than usual, driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Many poor households in these areas lost livelihood assets during the 2016 El Niño drought and have had little chance to fully recover, as the most recent drought is the third consecutive poor season. Furthermore, due to a lack of infrastructure and poor market access, only a small percentage of poor households are able to earn extra income through the sale of livestock (primarily chickens) or charcoal. In northeastern Cabo Delgado Province, more intense and expanded conflict has led to the displacement of thousands of poor households who have lost access to their typical livelihood activities. The most affected districts include Mocímboa da Praia, Palma, Nangade, Quissanga, Macomia, and Muidumbe. Thousands of people from these and neighboring districts are fleeing attacks and seeking safe shelter in Pemba (the provincial capital) and its surrounding areas. Some displaced households are seeking shelter in the neighboring province of Nampula. Due to a lack of information about the situation on the ground, the magnitude of displacement and additional impacts remain unclear, though it is anticipated the conflict and resulting displacement is preventing Source: FEWS NET many from engaging in agricultural production and labor activities. Preliminary FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC- compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not estimates suggest close to 200,000 people in Cabo Delgado have been necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security displaced and are likely in need of humanitarian assistance as they are facing partners. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Households that have fled the violence are staying in IDP camps, neighboring villages, or in the homes of their relatives. The total number of people facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes and in need of humanitarian assistance could increase to over 200,000 as the number people unable to access their fields or engage in livelihood activities for fear of sustained conflict and an escalation in attacks. In the semi-arid zone of southern Tete Province, and Guro and Tambara districts in northern Manica Province, households who planted maize in November/early December had to replant in mid-January following a prolonged dry spell with abnormally high temperatures. The mid-January maize planting was impacted by the early cessation of rains in February, resulting in maize yields at least 60 percent below average. Most poor households have already exhausted their own food stocks and are dependent on market purchases. The poorest households in this zone are likely Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and will continue expanding their livelihood coping strategies, such as consuming less preferred foods, producing and selling charcoal Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook June 2020 to January 2021 in more remote markets, selling more animals than usual, spending savings if available, or purchasing food on credit or borrowing food, in order to meet their basic food needs. According to the Ministry of Health, as of June 29, 2020, Mozambique has 883 Figure 1. Water Requirements Satisfaction confirmed cases of COVID-19 from 29,343 tests, and six deaths directly related Index, as of May 10, 2020 (WRSI) with COVID-19. On April 1, 2020, the government of Mozambique first declared a State of Emergency for 30 days and has since extended it by 90 days, until July 29, 2020. From June 30 to July 29 some restrictions will be relaxed including a phased re-opening of schools, the re-opening of museums and galleries, and 50 percent of the workforce can be present in the workplace, with staff turnover every 15 days. The COVID-19 containment measures (including border closures except for essential goods and cargo, and restrictions on non-essential trade and work, among others) are primarily impacting poor urban and peri-urban households who are likely Stressed (IPC Phase 2) after having lost access to their usual sources of income and are relying on alternative work, petty trade, and assistance from better off friends, family, and neighbors in order to purchase food. However, the poorest and most vulnerable households are facing difficulties finding alternative sources of income or support. An IPC analysis conducted by the Technical Secretariat of Food Security and Nutrition (SETSAN) and partners, carried out in May, estimated that approximately 15 percent of the population (365,000 people) in urban and peri-urban areas of Maputo and Matola are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. In rural areas, the impacts of COVID-19 on food access for the poorest households is currently limited as the agricultural marketing systems are functioning at near normal levels, with constraints primarily related to roads and bridges damaged during the last rainy season, particularly in the north. 2019/20 Agricultural Season Progress Source: FEWS NET/USGS While the main harvest has ended in much of the country, it is still ongoing in high production areas in the central and northern regions. Preliminary estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADER), indicate Mozambique will produce 2.8 million MT of cereals (maize grain, rice, sorghum, millet), a 7.8 percent increase compared to last year and above the five-year average. An estimated 2.1 million MT of maize was produced, followed by rice, sorghum, and millet at 376,000 MT, 287,000 MT, and 38,000 MT, respectively. Pulses and tubers are expected to yield 883,000 MT and 19 million MT, respectively, a 7 and 13 percent increase compared to last year. It is anticipated that cereal imports, particularly maize, will be lower than last year; however, almost all national wheat and nearly 50 percent of national rice needs will likely be imported.