DECEMBER 2020 Air Pollution in Delhi: Filling the Policy Gaps Arpan Chatterji Air Pollution in Delhi: Filling the Policy Gaps Arpan Chatterji ABOUT THE AUTHOR Arpan Chatterji is a Research Intern at ORF. He is a student of Resource Economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. ©2020 Observer Research Foundation. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permisson in writing from ORF. Air Pollution in Delhi: Filling the Policy Gaps ABSTRACT Delhi, a Union Territory that is home to India’s capital, New Delhi, is among the world’s urban agglomerations with the most toxic air. The sheer magnitude of air pollution is massive, causing devastating impacts on people’s health, and the city’s environmental and economic well-being. Despite overwhelming evidence of the severity of air pollution and its negative consequences, however, India’s policy measures remain weak. This paper identifies the most crucial gaps in policies and outlines a framework for creating more focused targets that will improve air quality in Delhi. Attribution: Arpan Chatterji, “Air Pollution in Delhi: Filling the Policy Gaps,” ORF Occasional Paper No. 291, December 2020, Observer Research Foundation. ORF OCCASIONAL PAPER # 291 DECEMBER 2020 5 Air Pollution in Delhi: Filling the Policy Gaps NTRODUCTION Twenty-one of the world's 30 cities with the worst levels of air pollution are in India, according to data compiled in IQAir AirVisual's 2019 World Air Quality Report; six Indian cities are in the top ten.1 Indeed, air pollution is pervasive in many parts of India, causing massive public health and environmental crises. The economic cost of fossil fuel air pollution alone is estimated at INR 10,700 billion, or 5.4 percent of the country’s annual GDP. An estimated one million deaths each year, and 980,000 pre-term births, are attributed to air pollution from fossil fuel in India.2 Among all the cities in India, some of the worst levels of air pollution are seen in its capital territory, Delhi. The impacts are devastating, including in the degree of particulate matter concentrations in the air (environmental), reduction in life expectancy (health), and high costs that the state is incurring to resolve the crisis (economic). The main sources of air pollution in Delhi include vehicle exhaust, heavy industry such as power generation, small-scale industries like brick kilns, suspended dust on the roads due to vehicle movement and construction activities, open waste burning, combustion of fuels for cooking, lighting, and heating, and in-situ power generation via diesel generator sets.3 Compounding the problem are seasonal emissions from dust storms, forest fires, and open field fires during harvest season. Extreme air pollution from these sources affects millions of people in densely populated regions who are exposed to thick, toxic smog for long periods of time.4 As the state government starts organising more policy measures to combat this recurring problem, this paper seeks to provide 6 ORF OCCASIONAL PAPER # 291 DECEMBER 2020 Air Pollution in Delhi: Filling the Policy Gaps an analysis of the situation in Delhi to explain how air pollution impacts public health and the economy, and what the government has done so far to mitigate the problem. The paper analyses the Union government’s flagship National Clean Air Program (NCAP), as well as the initiatives taken by the Delhi government, to combat air pollution. AIR POLLUTION TRENDS India has been particularly vulnerable to air pollution over the last two decades, owing to population growth, increasing numbers of vehicles, use of fuels, inefficient transportation systems, poor land use patterns, industrialisation, and ineffective environmental regulations.5 Among Indian cities, the capital, New Delhi, is one of the worst-affected. New Delhi has the highest ambient particulate matter pollution exposure in the country. As of 2019, the average annual PM 2.5 concentration across India was 58.1 micrograms per cubic meter; Delhi’s average PM 2.5 concentration for the year 2019 was 98.6 micrograms per cubic meter. The startling aspect of that statistic is that the recorded level is not just the highest for any capital city in India, but for any capital city in the world.6 ORF OCCASIONAL PAPER # 291 DECEMBER 2020 7 Air Pollution in Delhi: Filling the Policy Gaps Figure 1. Satellite Image showing Haze across Delhi in November 2019 In 2019, NASA Earth-observing satellites began to detect significant numbers of fires in mid-October. By the end of the month, large numbers of fires were detected across much of the state of Punjab, as well as parts of northeastern Pakistan. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this natural-color image on the afternoon of November 4, 2019, when a plume of smoke that had been emitted a few days earlier was sweeping through Delhi. The haze had pushed levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) to hazardous levels in Delhi.7 After Delhi went into lockdown in the wake of the pandemic, the pollution levels decreased drastically, and the air quality index returned to the ‘satisfactory’ level.8 Before this, Delhi’s air was 8 ORF OCCASIONAL PAPER # 291 DECEMBER 2020 Air Pollution in Delhi: Filling the Policy Gaps cleanest on 29 September 2019, when the AQI measured 60, which is ‘satisfactory’. As shown on the Real-Time Air Quality Index, in Delhi, particulate matter (PM2.5) dropped from 165µg/m3 on 21 March 2020, a level considered unhealthy to everyone, to 64µg/m3 on 29 March 2020, ‘moderate’ or ‘acceptable’.9 This is a sharp drop in air pollution for Delhi which usually records ‘poor’ to ‘severe’ levels of air quality with the AQI ranging from 100 to 300, and even higher in colder months.10 Table 1: Levels of PM10 and Air Quality Index during and after Lockdown Phase of Lockdown PM10 levels and AQI The first three phases of the national lockdown, which started on March 25, led to large declines in air pollution First Three Phases (March-May in Delhi. In April 2020, the concentration of PM 10 fell to 2020) 71.7 μg/m3, less than half the concentration observed during the same month over the previous three years.11 The concentration of PM 10 rose to 96.4 μg/m3 during the fourth phase of the lockdown, which expanded exemptions and permitted interstate movement starting May 18.12 But, shortly after lockdown restrictions were Fourth Phase (May-October eased after May 18, a spike was recorded, and records 2020) indicated that Delhi’s pollution patterns started climbing again.13 Delhi’s air pollution levels increased by 43 percent in comparison to its best levels of air quality during the lockdown.14 To make matters worse, air quality in the Indian capital plummeted to an eight-month low on October Post-Lockdown (October 2020 17, 2020.15 The air quality index (AQI) crossed 350 onwards) at various places, hovering between “very poor” and “severe” since then.16 The city experienced relatively cleaner air during the COVID-19 lockdown as industrial activity came to a halt. However, a drop in temperatures, coupled with the resumption of industrial operations and stubble burning by farmers after the harvest season, have raised pollution levels back up to dangerous levels. As Delhi has reopened, vehicles are back on the road, construction is restarting, ORF OCCASIONAL PAPER # 291 DECEMBER 2020 9 Air Pollution in Delhi: Filling the Policy Gaps and factories are reopening—air pollution, which had fallen to half the usual levels at this time of the year, is again rising.17 Fig 2. Change in NAQI in the NCT Delhi (3 March to 14 April 2020)18 AIR QUALITY IN DELHI: KEY FACTORS The most crucial reasons for the alarming levels of air pollution in Delhi include the city’s landlocked geographical location, crop burning in neighbouring states (Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan), vehicular emissions, industrial pollution, and large-scale construction activities. 10 ORF OCCASIONAL PAPER # 291 DECEMBER 2020 Air Pollution in Delhi: Filling the Policy Gaps Figure 3: Climatic Conditions, Sources of Air Pollution, and Air Quality Index (AQI) in NCR Cities (June 2017 to May 2018)19 Crop Burning The national capital territory of Delhi is landlocked between the states of Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, and the Himalayas in the north. Much of the air pollution in Delhi is blamed on crop- burning—especially in the states of Punjab and Haryana, where rice and wheat are widely grown. Burning typically peaks during the first week of November, a time when many farmers set fire to leftover rice stalks and straw after harvest, a practice known as stubble or paddy burning, a cost-effective measure for clearing out fields.20 As the new harvest season starts, paddy is burnt on a large scale, resulting in a dense layer of smog over the Northern Plains, including Delhi NCR. Farmers in the states of Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh grow rice on 10.5 million hectares (26 million acres), producing about 48 million tonnes of ORF OCCASIONAL PAPER # 291 DECEMBER 2020 11 Air Pollution in Delhi: Filling the Policy Gaps straw a year of which about 39 million tonnes are burnt.21 The problem has become more acute due to various reasons including types of seeds used and government policies that encourage late harvesting to save groundwater.22 The burning often coincides with falling temperatures and slow wind speeds—meteorological conditions that can lead to temperature inversions, which trap smoke in place.23 There is also a mistaken belief among farmers in neighbouring states that burning the stubble will take the nutrients back to the soil.