Energiewende 2030: The Big Picture Megatrends, Targets, Strategies and a 10-Point Agenda for the Second Phase of Germany’s Energy Transition IMPULSE Denmark Norway Sweden Power System in 2030 1 4 3 11 3 8 New underground cables and long-distance transmission lines Existing high-voltage lines Schleswig- Gross power Holstein generation* O shore wind Mecklenburg- Vorpommern Onshore wind Photovoltaic Biomass Hamburg Poland Hydropower Netherlands Nuclear 10 6 14 4 Bremen Lignite Berlin Hard coal Natural gas Pumped storage Lower Branden- Saxony burg Power demand* North Rhine- Industry Westphalia Saxony- Transport Belgium Anhalt Buildings 5 1 International electricity trading** Saxony Gross power production TWh Power imports (TWh) Nuclear 0 Power exports (TWh) Lignite ~ 60 Hesse Thuringia * Each symbol generally Hard coal ~ 80 represents 5 terawatt-hours of Luxembourg Natural gas ~ 70 generation and consumption. In 4 0 the case of smaller German states, ~ 10 the symbols may represent a little Czech Republic Pumped storage less than this amount for depictive Misc. ~ 20 reasons. 7 4 Onshore wind ~ 170 ** International electricity trade flows have been estimated using Rhineland- O shore wind ~ 80 a scenario that models a Palatinate European-wide transition to Photovoltaic ~ 70 renewables (assumptions: ~ 30 European/national renewable France Biomass expansion targets are met, share of renewables > 50 %, stable Hydropower ~ 20 power demand despite integration 12 6 Saarland of energy sectors, expansion of Total ~ 610 international grid connections). Power demand TWh Bavaria Industry ~ 210 Baden- Austria Transport ~ 60 Württemberg Buildings ~ 270 Transformation losses, Switzerland 15 network losses etc. ~ 70 11 Total ~ 610 4 11 Balance of cross-border physical load flows ~ 0 Source: Authors' calculations Denmark Sweden Power System in 2015 1 2 2 1 Existing high-voltage lines Gross power generation* Oshore wind Schleswig- Onshore wind Holstein Photovoltaic Mecklenburg- Vorpommern Biomass Hydropower Nuclear Hamburg Lignite Netherlands Poland Hard coal 1 0 7 1 Bremen Natural gas Berlin Pumped storage Power demand* Industry Lower Branden- Transport Saxony burg North Rhine- Buildings Westphalia Saxony- Anhalt International electricity trading** Power imports (TWh) Power exports (TWh) Saxony Gross power production TWh * Each symbol generally Nuclear 92 represents 5 terawatt-hours of Lignite 155 generation and consumption. In Hesse the case of smaller German states, Thuringia Hard coal 118 the symbols may represent a little Luxembourg less than this amount for depictive Natural gas 62 reasons. 5 0 Pumped storage 9 ** The balance of international Czech Republic electricity trading slightly diverges Misc. 24 from the balance of international 2 1 physical load flows. Onshore wind 71 Rhineland- Oshore wind 8 Palatinate Photovoltaic 39 Biomass 50 France Hydropower 19 9 4 Saarland Total 647 Power demand TWh Bavaria Industry 228 Baden- Transport 12 Württemberg Buildings 281 Austria Transformation losses, Switzerland 2 network losses, etc 74 31 Total 595 3 8 Balance of cross-border physical load flows 52 Source: Authors' calculations Denmark Norway Sweden Power System in 2030 1 Lignite mining regions Rural areas 4 3 11 3 Lignite mining regions 8 New underground cables and long-distance transmission lines Existing high-voltage lines Schleswig- Gross power Holstein generation* O shore wind Mecklenburg- Vorpommern Onshore wind Photovoltaic Biomass Hamburg Poland Hydropower Netherlands Nuclear 10 6 14 4 Bremen Lignite Berlin Hard coal Natural gas Pumped storage Regions that used to be dominated by mining of The energy transition will especially benefit the rural Lower Branden- Regionslignite coal, that will used benefit to be from dominated an encompassing by mining of areas. Wind and solar power plants will generate Saxony Power demand* burg transformation. In 2030, Germany will have reduced revenues for municipal budgets, local firms will benefit North Rhine- lignite coal, will benefit from an encompassing both mining as well as generation of coal-fired by providing operational and maintenance services. Industry Westphalia transformation. In 2030, Germany will have reduced bothelectricity mining by as50%. well New as generation infrastructure of coal-firedwill make such Half of all buildings will be heat insulated, many Saxony- Transport Anhalt electricityregions attractive by 50%. forNew investment. infrastructure At the will same make time, such households will generate and/ or consume solar Belgium regionsrenewable attractive energy, for e ciency investment. technologies, At the same cutting- time, power on-site to power their heat pumps and electric Buildings 5 1 renewableedge research energy, and e ciencytourism will technologies, create jobs andcutting- have vehicles. However, most cars will still run using edgelocal economicresearch andbenefits. tourism will create jobs and have conventional combustion engines. International local economic benefits. electricity trading** Saxony Gross power production TWh Power imports (TWh) Nuclear 0 Power exports (TWh) Cities Lignite ~ 60 Industry Hesse Thuringia Cities * Each symbol generally Hard coal ~ 80 represents 5 terawatt-hours of Luxembourg Natural gas ~ 70 generation and consumption. In 4 0 the case of smaller German states, ~ 10 the symbols may represent a little Czech Republic Pumped storage less than this amount for depictive Misc. ~ 20 reasons. 7 4 Onshore wind ~ 170 ** International electricity trade flows have been estimated using Rhineland- O shore wind ~ 80 a scenario that models a Palatinate European-wide transition to Photovoltaic ~ 70 renewables (assumptions: ~ 30 European/national renewable France Biomass expansion targets are met, share of renewables > 50 %, stable Hydropower ~ 20 power demand despite integration 12 6 Saarland of energy sectors, expansion of Total ~ 610 international grid connections). Power demand TWh Bavaria Industry ~ 210 Baden- Austria Transport ~ 60 Württemberg Buildings ~ 270 Transformation losses, Switzerland 15 network losses etc. ~ 70 Thanks to the transport transformation, city dwellers 11 Total ~ 610 Thankswill enjoy to quieterthe transport and cleaner transformation, cities. People city willdwellers get Industry will benefit from inexpensive solar and wind 4 willaround enjoy using quieter bicycles, and cleanerpublic transport cities. People and electricwill get vehicles (either privately owned or shared). By 2030, power, whether generated on-site or procured from 11 around using bicycles, public transport and electric much of the housing stock will be heat insulated and the power market. An increasing number of Balance of cross-border vehicles (either privately owned or shared). By 2030, supplied renewable heat. Most apartment building manufacturers will dynamically steer their energy physical load flows ~ 0 much of the housing stock will be heat insulated and suppliedroofs will renewable be equipped heat. with Most solar apartment panels. building demand based on intermittent power supply levels. Source: Authors' calculations roofs will be equipped with solar panels. Wind and solar electricity will also be used to a greater extent to cover heat demand. In line with the eciency first principle, industrial companies will become ever more ecient. Energiewende 2030: The Big Picture IMPRINT IMPULSE Energiewende 2030: The Big Picture Megatrends, Targets, Strategies and a 10-Point Agenda for the Second Phase of Germany’s Energy Transition WRITTEN BY: Agora Energiewende Anna-Louisa-Karsch-Straße 2 10178 Berlin | Germany P +49 (0)30 700 14 35-000 F +49 (0)30 700 14 35-129 www.agora-energiewende.de [email protected] Translation: WordSolid, Berlin Layout: UKEX GRAPHIC, Germany Urs Karcher Illustration: Erfurth Kluger Infografik GbR Elbestraße 35 | 12045 Berlin | Germany Please cite as: Agora Energiewende (2018): Energiewende 2030: The Big Picture. Megatrends, 134/04-I-2018/EN Targets, Strategies and a 10-Point Agenda for the Publication: April 2018 Second Phase of Germany’s Energy Transition. Preface Dear readers, tunities that this transition holds for the 4th largest economy in the world. While this report is focused on Germany has been an early adopter and significant Germany, it also offers insights that stand to benefit driver of what has now become a global trend towards the rest of the world: among other things, it spotlights energy transitions. Today, international competition strategies for integrating the power, transport and and cooperation have drastically driven down the heating sectors, and illuminates crucial principles costs of wind turbines, photovoltaics and batteries, that should inform energy policy, such as promoting kick-starting renewable generation worldwide. energy efficiency and creating reliability and pre- dictability through the means of legal frameworks. These and other developments are dissolving the longstanding antagonism between economic and Of course, Germany still has much to learn from other climate interests. In every year since 2013, more countries, too. I therefore encourage you to send capacity has been added from renewables than from us your comments and criticisms so that together all other energy sources combined, as investors shift we can usher in renewable, affordable and reliable their focus from fossil fuels to renewable energy. energy systems across the globe. This report proposes specific steps Germany should I wish you an enjoyable read! take to reach its climate target of at least minus 55 % greenhouse gas emissions compared