INDEPENDENT RESEARCH Optical & Eyewear Sector 24th June 2015 Confluence of favourable factors in the optical sector! Optical & Eyewear Sector ESSILOR BUY FV EUR124 We maintain our ‘buy’ rating and our FV for EI (EUR124) and LUX Bloomberg EF FP Reuters ESSI.PA (EUR63), although with a slight preference for EI given its upside Price EUR106,25 High/Low 114,9/71,49 potential (+17%). We upgrade SFL from ‘neutral’ to ‘buy’ with an FV of Market cap. EUR22,825m Enterprise Val EUR24,419m PE (2015e) 28.0x EV/EBIT (2015e) 19.8x EUR15 as we expect a gradual improvement in the momentum. Of note, 2016e PEG ratios for EI (1.6x) and LUX (1.7x) are more LUXOTTICA BUY FV EUR63 Bloomberg LUX IM Reuters LUX.MI attractive than in June 2014 thanks to accelerated organic growth and, Price EUR60,15 High/Low 61,85/35,7 more importantly, currency impact! Despite the impact from Gucci in Market Cap. EUR28,827m Enterprise Val EUR29,860m 2017, SFL exhibits a 2016e PEG ratio of 1.2x. PE (2015e) 32.8x EV/EBIT (2015e) 20.6x An exceptionally favourable combination of positive factors in the BUY vs. SAFILO FV EUR15 optical sector! While the companies in our coverage universe already NEUTRAL Bloomberg SFL IM Reuters SFLG.MI enjoyed excellent fundamentals and the optical sector showed strong Price EUR12,91 High/Low 16,35/9,13 structural catalysts, it is now among the major beneficiaries of a weaker Market Cap. EUR810m Enterprise Val EUR946m PE (2015e) 17.9x EV/EBIT (2015e) 10.1x euro, as demonstrated by the impact on Q1 sales (LUX: +14.6%, EI: +12.7% and SFL: +9.8%). Price and data as at close of 19th June 2015-2017: almost all the signals are on green for EI and LUX. They intend to step up growth during the period 2014-17 (CAGR: 11.1%e, EI+LUX average) as they own industry leading brands (Ray-Ban, Varilux…), increase marketing expenses to stimulate demand in mature countries, and expand quickly in emerging markets. This growth will be profitable as we expect a 14.8% CAGR (EI+LUX average) over the period, fuelled by operating leverage, productivity gains and by the rising 23/06/15 127 contribution of the sunglasses and online segments for EI. 122 Safilo: towards more enabling conditions in the coming quarters: 117 112 Although some projects from the strategic plan for 2020 are painful to 107 implement (e.g. Q1 Asian sales: -23% due to a change in the distribution 102 model), they are key to achieving accelerated sales and margin growth. Q1 97 negative factors will gradually wear off and the relaunch of Carrera 92 (March 2015) will be a major catalyst. Excluding the impact from Gucci in 87 2017, our estimates imply 14-17 CAGRs of 8% and 18%, for sales and Source Thomson Reuters EBIT, respectively. STOXX EUROPE 600 CONSUMER GDS E STOXX EUROPE 600 M&A: no large transactions ahead in our opinion. Following the failed merger talks between EI and LUX in 2013, we believe the same obstacles still exist (leadership conflicts, great operational complexity, and governance issues at Luxottica), especially as both groups have other significant, less risky medium-term growth drivers. In addition, we do not believe in the acquisition of SFL by EI since the licencing business does not seem to be of interest to EI and since this move would be a declaration of war on LUX. Therefore, we expect smaller acquisitions. Analyst: Consumer Analyst Team: Cédric Rossi Nikolaas Faes 33(0) 1 70 36 57 25 Loïc Morvan [email protected] Antoine Parison Virginie Roumage r r Optical & Eyewear Sector Table of contents 1. State of the global optical market in 2014 .............................................................................. 3 1.1. A market growing at a 4% rate ........................................................................................................ 3 1.2. The sunglasses market is still enjoying strong momentum! ....................................................... 4 1.2.1. The “Made in Italy” label is in good shape! .................................................................... 4 1.2.2. Solid medium-/long-term catalysts .................................................................................. 6 1.2.3. Essilor is also contributing to the premiumisation of the sunglasses segment ....... 10 1.3. Prescription lenses: a slightly more enabling environment ...................................................... 11 1.3.1. Economic conditions are gradually improving ............................................................. 12 1.3.2. Significant increase in marketing expenses to reinvigorate the high-end segment…13 1.3.3. … and the business in mature markets .......................................................................... 13 2. Lessons learned in Q1 15 ........................................................................................................ 15 2.1. US: still the main driver of the sector .......................................................................................... 15 2.2. Europe: the improvement that started in 2014 is taking hold ................................................. 16 2.3. Emerging countries: surprise in Latin America! ......................................................................... 17 3. Our estimates for 2015-17 ...................................................................................................... 19 3.1. Towards solid organic growth in 2015-17 ................................................................................... 19 3.1.1. Essilor’s strategy is firmly in place! ................................................................................. 19 3.1.2. Luxottica: the virtues of vertical integration ................................................................. 21 3.1.3. Safilo: towards profitable and, more importantly, sustainable growth! .................... 24 3.2. Higher profitability for everyone! ................................................................................................. 25 3.2.1. Essilor still has potential for margin improvement ..................................................... 25 3.2.2. Luxottica: operational leverage is still there! ................................................................. 26 3.2.3. Safilo: towards a gradual recovery of profitability........................................................ 27 3.3. A stimulating positive currency impact! ....................................................................................... 29 3.3.1. Revenues: the sector benefits from USD exposure ..................................................... 29 3.3.2. Profitability: transactional impact is an advantage for Luxottica .............................. 30 4. A combination of positive factors propping up stock prices ............................................ 31 4.1. Positive trend in stock prices in H1 15 ........................................................................................ 31 4.2. Current topics ................................................................................................................................... 32 4.2.1. Concerns over the French optical market? ................................................................... 32 4.2.2. M&A: small deals…? ......................................................................................................... 33 4.2.3. M&A: … or large mergers? .............................................................................................. 34 4.3. Valuation-to-growth profile ........................................................................................................... 38 4.4. DCF valuation .................................................................................................................................. 39 Essilor (BUY, FV EUR124) ......................................................................................................... 43 A wider playing field for new opportunities! .......................................................................................... 43 Luxottica (Buy, FV EUR63) ........................................................................................................ 45 All-Star Game Winner ................................................................................................................................ 45 Safilo (BUY vs. Neutral, FV EUR15) ........................................................................................ 46 Towards a more positive momentum ...................................................................................................... 46 Price Chart and Rating History ................................................................................................... 49 Bryan Garnier stock rating system .............................................................................................. 51 2 Optical & Eyewear Sector 1. State of the global optical market in 2014 1.1. A market growing at a 4% rate Euromonitor estimates that the global optical market grew by 4.2% in 2014 to EUR29.1bn (wholesale value excluding eye surgery equipment). Although this performance is similar to that of 2013, we observed an acceleration in the growth trend of the sunglasses & frame segment, which more than offset the slowdown of the reading glasses segment: (i) Corrective lenses: in 2014, this segment was up 3% to EUR11.2bn (+2% in 2013). According to our estimates, Essilor continued to gain market share (~44% in value terms vs. 42% in 2013 and ~39% in volume terms vs. 37% in 2013), whereas its two main rivals Hoya (Japan) and