University of Dundee DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Connecting the dots A systemic approach to evaluating potential constraints to renewable electricity technology deployment to 2020 and beyond in the United Kingdom Wood, Geoffrey Craig Award date: 2013 Link to publication General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. 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Oct. 2021 Connecting the dots: A systemic approach to evaluating potential constraints to renewable electricity technology deployment to 2020 and beyond in the United Kingdom Geoffrey Craig Wood A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the Centre for Energy Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy (CEPMLP), University of Dundee September 2013 i Contents i Table of Contents iv List of Tables, Figures and Graphs vii List of Abbreviations x Acknowledgements xi Declaration xiii Abstract p.1 Part One: Introduction to the dissertation p.3 Chapter One: Introduction p.4 1.1 The PhD in context p.15 1.2 Justification for the PhD p.15 1.2.1 Government commissioned modelling p.21 1.2.2 Academic and non-academic research p.23 1.2.3 Previous research carried out by the thesis author p.24 1.2.4 Justification for the PhD p.26 1.3 Research objective p.27 1.4 Research questions p.27 1.5 Scope of the thesis p.30 1.6 Limitations p.31 1.7 Thesis structure p.44 Chapter Two: Methodology p.45 2.1 Introduction p.45 2.2 Analytical framework p.47 2.3 The internal and external failures p.50 2.4 Research Methodology p.54 2.5 Adopting approaches: A systemic approach to evaluating internal and external failures p.57 2.6 Limitations of the methodology p.60 Chapter Three: Literature review p.61 3.1 Introduction p.61 3.2 The depoliticalisation and repoliticalisation of UK energy policy p.68 3.3 The Non-Fossil Fuel Obligation p.74 3.4 The Renewables Obligation ii p.95 Part Two: Renewable energy and technologies p.97 Chapter Four: Renewable energy: definitions and contexts p.98 4.1 Introduction p.98 4.2 What is renewable energy? A question of definition p.114 4.3 Is renewable energy special? Renewable energy in the context of the energy system p.127 Chapter Five: Attributes and options for renewable Electricity technologies p.128 5.1 Introduction p.129 5.2 The electricity sector and decarbonisation p.138 5.3 Renewable energy reserves p.150 5.4 Attributes of renewable energy technologies p.171 Chapter Six: Trends in Renewable Electricity Installed Capacity and Generation Output in the United Kingdom p.172 6.1 Introduction p.173 6.2 Historical and current trends in UK renewable electricity deployment p.186 6.3 Measuring the United Kingdom sectoral targets p.200 Part Three: Applying the systemic approach p.202 Chapter Seven: Potential constraints I: internal failures p.203 7.1 Introduction p.203 7.2 Background to renewable electricity support mechanisms p.207 7.3 The internal failures of the renewables obligation p.225 7.4 An evaluation of the internal failures on renewable deployment p.226 7.4.1 Type of subsidy mechanism: The Renewables Obligation p.228 7.4.2 Subsidy levels under the Renewables Obligation p.258 Chapter Eight: Potential constraints II: external failures p.260 8.1 Introduction p.262 8.2 The planning system p.268 8.2.1 An analysis of planning data in England, Scotland and the UK p.268 8.2.1.1 Onshore wind p.276 8.2.1.2 Offshore wind p.281 8.2.1.3 Biomass conversion and dedicated biomass iii p.285 8.2.2 The planning system and renewable electricity technology deployment p.293 8.2.3 The planning system in England and Scotland p.294 8.2.3.1 The onshore planning system in England and Scotland p.314 8.2.3.2 The offshore planning system in England and Scotland p.346 8.3 Public participation and engagement p.348 8.3.1 Meso-scale deployment and community renewable projects p.351 8.3.2 Opportunities and barriers for public participation and engagement p.360 8.3.3 Community benefits: An alternative approach to securing public support p.369 8.4 The UK electricity network p.378 8.4.1 Upgrading the electricity transmission network p.379 8.4.1.1 The transmission network options p.397 8.4.2 The UK electricity transmission network: access and allocation of capacity p.410 8.5 Policy risk and uncertainty p.412 8.5.1 Policy reviews, reforms and policy risk p.412 8.5.1.1 Priorities p.419 8.5.1.2 Targets p.422 8.5.1.3 Reviews and reforms p.436 Chapter Nine: Evaluating potential constraints to renewable electricity deployment: A systemic approach perspective p.437 9.1 Introduction p.437 9.2 An evaluation of internal and external failures from a systemic approach perspective p.446 Part IV: Conclusions p.447 Chapter Ten: Conclusions p.448 10.1 Introduction p.448 10.2 Answering the research questions p.453 10.3 Original contribution to knowledge p.455 10.3 Future research work iv Figures and tables p.46 Figure 2.1 Graphical representation of the research issue (analytical framework) p.49 Table 2.1 The internal and external failures p.55 Table 2.2 Categorisation of the major renewable electricity technologies p.73 Table 3.1 The capacity of contracted projects contra commissioned projects for the NFFO by 2004 p.85 Table 3.2 RES-E generation output as a percentage under the RO p.87 Figure 3.1 The key internal and external failures of the NFFO and RO (1990- 2009) p.107 Table 4.1 GHG emissions from fossil, low carbon and renewable energy technologies p.140 Table 5.1 Estimates of terrestrial and marine renewable energy resource availability in the UK p.146- Figure 5.1 Terrestrial renewable energy resources in the UK for onshore 147 wind power (A), solar radiation (B) and biomass in Scotland (C) and the UK (D) p.148 Figure 5.2 Marine renewable energy resources in the UK for offshore 149 wind power (A), wave power (B), tidal stream (C) and tidal range (D) p.152- Table 5.2 Attributes of key renewable, low carbon and conventional p.153 electricity technologies p.174 Table 6.1 Capacity of, and electricity generated from renewable sources in the UK from 2002 to 2011 p.178 Figure 6.1 Annual growth of key individual technologies as a percentage of total renewable energy technology growth (2001-11) p.179 Figure 6.2 Annual installed capacity growth in MW for key individual renewable energy technologies (2001-11) p.181 Figure 6.3 Sub-national renewable energy installed capacity (A) and generation output (B) in 2011 p.183 Table 6.2 Capacity of, and electricity generated from renewable sources from 2002 to 2011 in Scotland p.185 Table 6.3 Overall renewables percentage for the period 2003 to 2011 v p.187 Table 6.4 Renewable and sectoral targets at the UK and sub-national level for 2020 p.190 Table 6.5 Average annual deployment rates for key renewable energy technologies at the UK and Scottish level p.209- Table 7.1 Subsidy support levels for renewable electricity technologies p.211 under the Renewables Obligation (RO) and Renewables Obligation Scotland (ROS) (2012-2017) p.218 Table 7.2 The major structural components of the reformed Renewables Obligation (rRO) and the reformed Renewables Obligation Scotland (rROS) p.266 Table 8.1 Legislative and policy basis for onshore and offshore planning in England and Scotland p.269- Table 8.2 Status of onshore wind planning data in the United Kingdom, 270 England and Scotland p.275 Figure 8.1 Approval rates of >50 MW and <50 MW for onshore wind farms in the United Kingdom, England and Scotland – 2007 to 2012 p.277 Figure 8.2 Average size of >50 MW and <50 MW for onshore wind farms in the United Kingdom, England and Scotland – 2001 to 2012 p.278 Table 8.3 Status of offshore wind planning data in the United Kingdom, England and Scotland – 2000 to 2012 p.282- Table 8.4 Status of dedicated biomass. Biomass conversion and co-firing 283 biomass planning data in the UK p.288 Table 8.5 Key issues for renewable electricity technologies and the planning system in the United Kingdom p.295- Table 8.6 Key planning legislation and policy documents for onshore p.297 renewable energy installations and associated infrastructure in England and Scotland p.315 Table 8.7 Key planning legislation and policy documents for offshore renewable energy installations and associated infrastructure in England and Scotland p.349 Figure 8.3 Size distribution of onshore wind farms in the UK as of August 2013 as a percentage of installed capacity (MW) p.380- Table 8.8 Key electricity transmission network options for Scotland and p.381 England (interconnector only) p.386 Table 8.9 The Crown Estate offshore wind leasing agreements – Rounds 1 and 2 p.392 Figure 8.4 Average development timeframe for a 50 MW onshore wind farm (A) and average duration for the delivery of a transmission line or new substation (B) p.393 Table 8.10 Average time (months) from consent to decommissioning in the United Kingdom, Scotland and England – 2007 to 2012 vi p.413- Table 8.11 Key policy