This “Mongolia Second Assessment Report on Climate Change 2014” (MARCC 2014) has been developed and published by the Ministry of Environment and Green Development of Mongolia with financial support from the GIZ programme “Biodiversity and adaptation of key forest ecosystems to climate change”, which is being implemented in Mongolia on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development. Copyright © 2014, Ministry of Environment and Green Development of Mongolia Editors-in-chief: Damdin Dagvadorj Zamba Batjargal Luvsan Natsagdorj Disclaimers This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part in any form for educational or non-profit services without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. The Ministry of Environment and Green Development of Mongolia would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the Ministry of Environment and Green Development of Mongolia. TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures . 3 List of Tables . .. 12 Abbreviations . 14 Units . 17 Foreword . 19 Preface . 22 1. Introduction. Batjargal Z. 27 1.1 Background information about the country . 33 1.2 Introductory information on the second assessment report-MARCC 2014 . 31 2. Climate change: observed changes and future projection . 37 2.1 Global climate change and its regional and local implications. Batjargal Z. 39 2.1.1 Observed global climate change as estimated within IPCC AR5 . 40 2.1.2 Temporary slowing down of the warming . 43 2.1.3 Driving factors of the global climate change . 44 2.1.4 Future projection of global climate change as outlined within AR5 . 45 2.1.5 The regional and local consequences of the global scale climate change . 49 2.1.6 Climate of Mongolia in the last centuries . 51 2.1.7 Climate impact mechanism for the territory of Mongolia . 52 2.1.8 Recently observed and projected climate change in Asia, referring to the IPCC reports . 54 2.1.9 Potential impacts of the global climate change within Asian region, including Mongolia . 54 2.2 Climate research and observed climate change in Mongolia. Natsagdorj L., Sarantuya G. 59 2.2.1 Monitoring of the climate system . 59 2.2.2 Climate research . 63 2.2.3 Climate regime . 66 2.2.4 Observed climate variability and change . 69 2.3 Future climate change projection in Mongolia. Gomboluudev P. 72 2.3.1 Review on previous study . 73 2.3.2 Climate change projections . 73 2.4 Concluding remarks . 78 3 3. Climate change impacts and exposure . 85 3.1 Climate change impacts on the environmental components . 87 3.1.1 Soil and pasture. Erdenetsetseg B. 87 3.1.2 Forest ecosystem. Dorjsuren Ch. 94 3.1.3 Fauna. Enkhbileg D. 100 3.1.4 Water resources, glacier and permafrost. Davaa G., Jambaljav Ya. 109 3.1.5 Natural disaster. Doljinsuren M. 127 3.1.6 Land degradation and desertification. Mandakh N. 132 3.1.7 Dust/sand storm. Jugder D. 139 3.2 Climate change impact on society and economy . 143 3.2.1 Animal husbandry. Bolortsetseg B., Radnaa G. 143 3.2.2 Arable farming production. Davaadorj G., Gantsetseg B. 148 3.2.3 Poverty and human development. Battsetseg Ts. 155 3.2.4 Infrastructure. Battsetseg Ts. 160 3.2.5 Human health. Burmaajav B. 165 3.3 Vulnerability and risk assessment. Natsagdorj L. 170 4. Climate change adaptation strategy and measures. Natsagdorj L. 181 4.1 Justification for climate change adaptation . .. 183 4.2 Possible adaptation options for vulnerable sectors . 184 4.2.1 Animal husbandry . 184 4.2.2 Arable farming . 187 4.2.3 Water resource . .. 188 4.2.4 Forest resource . .. 190 4.3 Standing against climate change and achieving green development . 197 4.4 Adaptation means . 198 4.4.1 Adaptation strategy . 199 4.4.2 Possible challenges and constraints in implementing climate change adaptation measures and activities . 200 5. Greenhouse gas monitoring and inventory . 203 5.1 Greenhouse gas monitoring. Oyunchimeg D. 205 5.2 Greenhouse gas inventory . .. 207 5.2.1 Energy sector. Tegshjargal B. 207 5.2.2 Industrial sector. Tegshjargal B. 212 5.2.3 Agricultural sector. Sanaa E. .. 215 5.2.4 Waste sector. Sanaa E.. 217 5.2.5 Net greenhouse gas emissions in Mongolia . 220 4 6. Climate change mitigation strategy and measures. 225 6.1 Projections of GHG emissions. Dorjpurev J. 227 6.2 Mitigating GHG emissions in mid-term period. Dorjpurev J. 228 6.3 Policies and measures to reduce GHG emissions. Dorjpurev J. 235 6.4 Nationally appropriate mitigation action (NAMA). Saruul D. 240 6.5 International mechanism and opportunities to implement GHG mitigation measures. Dorjpurev J. .. 244 6.6 Green development and GHG emission reduction. Dorjpurev J. 247 6.7 Enhanced carbon sequestration by land ecosystems. Sanaa E. 248 7. Technology needs assessment . 255 7.1 Mitigation technology assessment. Namkhainyam B. .. 257 7.1.1 Technology needs assessment of energy sector . 257 7.1. 2 Technology assessments of transportation sector . 264 7.1. 3 Technology assessments of industrial sector . 265 7.1. 4 Technology assessment of livestock sector . 266 7.1. 5 Technology assessment of land use and forestry . 267 7.1. 6 Technology assessment in the waste management sector . 268 7.2 Adaptation technology assessment. Bolortsetseg B. 270 7.2.1 Potential adaptation technologies in vulnerable sectors . 271 7.2. 2 Barrier analysis and enabling framework . 274 7.2. 3 Technology action plan . 279 7.2. 4 Project ideas . 281 8 Policy framework, institutional arrangements, international cooperation and public awareness . 283 8.1 Legal and policy framework. Gerelt-Od Ts., Dagvadorj D. 285 8.2 Other climate change policies and strategies. Gerelt-Od Ts., Dagvadorj D. 287 8.3 Institutional arrangements. Gerelt-Od Ts., Dagvadorj D. 288 8.4 Green development policy and its climate change aspect. Dagvadorj D.. 289 8.5 International cooperation on climate change. Saruul D., Dagvadorj D. 293 8.5.1 Cooperation with international organizations and partner countries . 293 8.5.2 Barriers to cooperation and an outlook for the future . 297 8.6 Climate change public awareness and education. Gerelmaa Sh. 297 8.6.1 Improving public awareness and forming a smart lifestyle . 299 8.6.2 Good practices of activities, training, projects and programs . 300 8.7 Way forward. Dagvadorj D. 302 5 List of Figures 2.1 Observed global mean combined land and ocean surface temperature anomalies, from 1850 to 2012 2.2 Map of the observed surface temperature change from 1901 to 2012 2.3 Maps of observed precipitation change from 1901-2010 and from 1951 to 2010 2.4 Multiple observed indicators of a changing global climate 2.5 The effects of large scale volcanic eruption on the global temperature trend 2.6 Maps of CMIP5 multi*model mean results for the scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 in 2081-2100 of a) annual mean surface temperature change and b) average percent change in annual mean precipitation 2.7 a) Global average surface temperature change relative to 1986-2005 b) Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent c) Global ocean surface pH 2.8 Global mean sea level rise 2.9 Temperature increase and cumulative carbon emissions 2.10 Holocene climate and landscape evolution of UgiiNuur basin, Orkhon Valley, Central Mongolia 2.11 Mean temperature trend in different distinct ecological zones 2.12 Annual precipitation trend in different distinct ecological zones 2.13 Moisture supply scheme for the territory of Mongolia through atmospheric circulation 2.14 Observed and projected changes in annual average temperature and precipitation in Asia 2.15 Meteorological observation land network of Mongolia 2.16 Location of the new network of dust monitoring stations 2.17 Location of river and lake monitoring stations 2.18 Permafrost monitoring network 2.19 Geographical distribution of annual mean air temperature 2.20 Geographic distribution of mean air temperature in January 2.21 Geographic distribution of July mean average temperature 0 2.22 Growing Degree.