DIGITAL CHINA: POWERING THE ECONOMY TO GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS DECEMBER 2017 AboutSince itsMGI founding in 1990, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) has sought to develop a deeper understanding of the evolving global economy. As the business and economics research arm of McKinsey & Company, MGI aims to provide leaders in the commercial, public, and social sectors with the facts and insights on which to base management and policy decisions. The Lauder Institute at the University of Pennsylvania has ranked MGI the world’s number- one private-sector think tank in its Think Tank Index. MGI research combines the disciplines of economics and management, employing the analytical tools of economics with the insights of business leaders. Our “micro-to-macro” methodology examines microeconomic industry trends to better understand the broad macroeconomic forces affecting business strategy and public policy. MGI’s in-depth reports have covered more than 20 countries and 30 industries. 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Copyright © McKinsey & Company 2017 DIGITAL CHINA: POWERING THE ECONOMY TO GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS DECEMBER 2017 Jonathan Woetzel | Shanghai Jeongmin Seong | Shanghai Kevin Wei Wang | Hong Kong James Manyika | San Francisco Michael Chui | San Francisco Wendy Wong | Hong Kong PREFACE China is already a global leader in the digital economy. It is a major investor in and one of the world’s leading adopters of digital technologies in the consumer sector. Chinese consumers are proving to be enthusiastic about all things digital, powering e-commerce and mobile payments. But there is much more to come. A new wave of digitization is now unfolding in which many more businesses put digital at the heart of their operations and strategy. As they do so, there will be significant restructuring in value chains, creative destruction leading to higher efficiency, and large productivity gains. As a result, China’s economy will become more dynamic, and more Chinese businesses will be able to compete globally and even export “Made in China” digital business models and solutions. MGI has undertaken wide-ranging research on the impact of digital technologies on China’s economy. In this research, we have focused on how three digital forces—disintermediation, disaggregation, and dematerialization—are reshaping value chains and, in the process, boosting productivity. We examined in detail four very different sectors: consumer and retail, because it was one of the earliest to digitize in China; automotive and mobility, to test whether and how digitization can transform an advanced manufacturing sector; health care, because of its huge potential for digital disruption; and freight and logistics, because it is very inefficient and still relatively less digitized in China than elsewhere. This research was led by Jonathan Woetzel, a McKinsey senior partner and a director of MGI based in Shanghai, and Jeongmin Seong, an MGI senior fellow in Shanghai. Also closely involved in this effort were James Manyika, chairman of MGI based in San Francisco; Kevin Wei Wang, a senior partner in McKinsey’s Hong Kong office; and Michael Chui, an MGI partner based in San Francisco. We also thank Gordon Orr, a former McKinsey senior partner in China, for his thoughtful guidance throughout this research effort. Wendy Wong and Jonathan Kuo-Yanagawa led the research team, which comprised Karen Chen, Daniel Cheng, Yuan Hu, Tim Lin, Qu Qu, Feng Shi, Yingzi Tian, Mike Wang, Hank Yang, Qian Yao (alumnus), and George Zhao. At MGI, we would like to thank Janet Bush for her editorial support. We thank MGI’s Marisa Carder, Margo Shimasaki, and Patrick White, and Fanny Chan, a designer in Hong Kong, for their design expertise; Dennis Alexander, Cathy Gui, and Rebeca Robboy of MGI’s external communications team, and Glenn Leibowitz, Xiaoyun Li, and Lin Lin of the Greater China Office’s external relations and communications team; Lauren Meling, MGI digital editor; Julie Philpot, MGI’s production manager; and MGI knowledge operations expert Tim Beacom. Many McKinsey colleagues gave their time and expertise as we developed this report. At MGI, we are grateful to Jacques Bughin, Susan Lund, and Sree Ramaswamy. From McKinsey’s Greater China office, we would like to thank Lambert Bu, Elisa Chen, Grace Cheng, Karel Eloot, Xiyuan Fang (alumnus), Flora Feng, Paul Gao, Eric He, Martin Hirt, Sheng Hong, Forest Hou, Daniel Hui, David Jiang, Martin Joerss, Jean-Frederic Kuentz, Franck Le Deu, Martin Lehnich, Nick Leung, Yuanpeng Li, Nianling Liao, Joe Ngai, Felix Poh, Erik Rong, Steve Saxon, Sha Sha, Zhicheng Su, Florian Then, Christopher Thomas, Arthur Wang, Jin Wang, Yang Wang, Bill Wiseman, Ting Wu, Chenan Xia, David Xu, Lei Xu, Fangning Zhang, Haimeng Zhang, Lizzie Zhang, and Daniel Zipser. We are deeply indebted to our academic adviser, Martin N. Baily, Bernard L. Schwartz Chair in Economy Policy Development and senior fellow and director of the Business and Public Policy Initiative at the Brookings Institution. And we thank the many business leaders, experts, investors, and entrepreneurs who shared their insights confidentially. This report contributes to MGI’s mission to help business and policy leaders understand the forces transforming the global economy, identify strategic locations, and prepare for the next wave of growth. As with all MGI research, this work is independent and has not been commissioned or sponsored in any way by any business, government, or other institution. We welcome your comments on the research at [email protected]. Jacques Bughin Director, McKinsey Global Institute Senior partner, McKinsey & Company, Brussels James Manyika Chairman and Director, McKinsey Global Institute Senior partner, McKinsey & Company, San Francisco Jonathan Woetzel Director, McKinsey Global Institute Senior partner, McKinsey & Company, Shanghai December 2017 © BJI/Blue Jean Images/Getty Images CONTENTS HIGHLIGHTS In brief 17 Executive summary Page 1 1. China’s digital economy: A leading global force China is already a leader in Page 17 the digital economy 37 2. How digitized are China’s sectors? Page 37 3. Three digital forces are reshaping value chains Page 51 Digitization will reshape value chains 4. Implications for policy makers 51 Page 129 5. Implications for business Page 143 How to capture huge upside potential in China Bibliography Page 157 IN BRIEF DIGITAL CHINA China is already a major player in digital technologies at home and around the world, and it has enormous growth potential. As digital forces shake the status quo and restructure value chains, an even more globally competitive Chinese economy and dynamic firms can emerge. China has become a leading global force in the digital economy. The country has 42 percent of global e-commerce, processes 11 times more mobile payments than the United States, and is home to one-third of the world’s unicorns. Three factors suggest huge upside for China: a large and young Chinese market enabling rapid commercialization of digital business models; a rich digital ecosystem expanding beyond a few giants; and the government allowing space for digital companies to experiment, and being an investor in and consumer of digital technologies. The new MGI Industry Digitization Index for China reveals that a large gap vs. counterpart sectors in the United States has been closing rapidly. In 2013, the United States was 4.9 times more digitized than China; in 2016, that figure was 3.7 times. Three digital forces—disintermediation, disaggregation, and dematerialization—can potentially shift (and create) 10 to 45 percent of industry revenue pools by 2030. Disintermediation and disaggregation can have the largest impact. — Consumer and retail. Disintermediation (omnichannel, data-driven business models) is a major force for meeting evolving consumer demand. Disaggregation