Travel Behavior Study of Route 9 and Route 116 Commuters: Before Coolidge Bridge Reconstruction. Project No. UMAR12-10 UTC Year 12 Emily Parkany University of Massachusetts/Amherst [email protected] (610) 519-4957 October 2004 Submitted to New England (Region One) UTC Technical Report Documentation Page 1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No. 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date Travel Behavior Study of Route 9 and Route 116 Commuters: Before Coolidge October 2004 Bridge Reconstruction 6. Performing Organization Code 7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No. Emily Parkany 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) University of Massachusetts/Amherst, Transportation Center, Marston Hall, Amherst, MA 01003 11. Contract or Grant No. DTRS99-G-0001 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered New England (Region One) UTC Final Report for UTC Year 12 Massachusetts Institute of Technology 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Room E40-278 Cambridge, MA 02139 14. Sponsoring Agency Code 15. Supplementary Notes Supported by a grant from the US Department of Transportation, University Transportation Centers Program 16. Abstract There is a huge body of literature in social psychology describing seventy years of theory and experimentation relating attitudes to behavior. Much of it suggests a stronger causal link between choices and attitudes than between attitudes and choices— attitude models conditioned on revealed choice explain more than knowing peoples’ attitudes and determining what choice they will make. Alternate analyses suggest that we need to use attitudinal and other data to determine respondents’ intentions rather than desires in order to better predict behavior. Attitude studies are becoming more prevalent in studying transportation behavior, but researchers vary in what kinds of attitudes are considered and how attitudes influence the transportation decision process. In this paper we briefly highlight the social psychology literature, review transportation applications, and present a case study. Cognitive, affective, and behavioral attitudes help explain the intentions of those surveyed for the case study. Our results and the literature suggest that attitudes are very important, but they recommend caution regarding survey wording and capturing behavior intentions. Additionally, the results suggest that a circular behavior process including attitudes is better at explaining choices compared to using only cognitive and affective attitudes to explain behavior. 17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement Traveler Attitudes, Traveler Perceptions, Traveler Intentions, Travel Choice, Mode Choice, Decision Making, and Stated Preference 19. Security Classif. (of this report) 20. Security Classif. (of this page) 21. No. of Pages 22. Price insert no. of pages $15,000 Form DOT F 1700.7 Reproduction of form and completed page is authorized ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES............................................................................................................. vi LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... viii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION AND PROBLEM STATEMENT.................................................1 2. BACKGROUND .........................................................................................................2 2.1 Coolidge Bridge Reconstruction..............................................................................2 2.2 Case Study – San Francisco.....................................................................................5 2.3 Choice Modeling Methodologies.............................................................................6 2.3.1 Multinomial Logit (MNL) ...............................................................................7 2.3.2 Additional Models ...........................................................................................7 2.4 Stated Preference/Revealed Preference Effects.......................................................7 3. SURVEY METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS .......................................................10 3.1 Survey Description.................................................................................................10 3.1.1 Bridge Reconstruction ...................................................................................10 3.1.2 General Travel Behavior................................................................................10 3.1.3 Current Travel Behavior ................................................................................11 3.1.4 Demographics ................................................................................................11 3.2 Survey Logistics.....................................................................................................11 3.3 Potential Sources of Sample Bias ..........................................................................12 3.4 Sample Sets for Choice Models.............................................................................13 3.5 Demographic Data Variables.................................................................................13 4. DESCRIPTION AND INFLUENCE OF VARIABLES ...........................................17 4.1 Travel Data Variables ............................................................................................17 4.2 Attitudinal Data Variables .....................................................................................22 4.3 Expected Influence of Variables............................................................................29 4.3.1 Demographic Data Variables.........................................................................29 4.3.2 Travel Data Variables ....................................................................................29 4.3.3 Attitudinal Data Variables .............................................................................30 5. MODEL ESTIMATION RESULTS..........................................................................32 5.1 Route Choice Breakdown ......................................................................................32 5.2 Route Choice Model Estimation Results ...............................................................33 5.2.1 Route Choice Model Results with All Users .................................................34 5.2.2 Route Choice Model Results with All Users – Hypothesis Test 39 5.2.3 Route Choice Model Results with All Users – Influential Variables 40 5.2.4 Route Choice Model Results with Peak Users ..............................................41 5.2.5 Route Choice Model Results with Peak Users – Hypothesis Test 45 5.2.6 Route Choice Model Results with Peak Users – Influential Variables 45 5.3 Mode Choice Breakdown ......................................................................................45 iii 5.4 Mode Choice Model Estimation Results ...............................................................47 5.4.1 Mode Choice Model Results with All Users .................................................47 5.4.2 Mode Choice Model Results with All Users – Hypothesis Test 50 5.4.3 Mode Choice Model Results with All Users – Influential Variables 51 5.4.4 Mode Choice Model Results with Peak Users...............................................51 5.4.5 Mode Choice Model Results with Peak Users – Hypothesis Test 54 5.4.6 Mode Choice Model Results with Peak Users – Influential Variables 55 6. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH .......................................................56 APPENDIX: COOLIDGE BRIDGE SURVEY ...............................................................58 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................66 iv LIST OF TABLES TABLE Page 1. Demographic Data Summary for Coolidge Bridge Sample ..................................26 2. Travel Data Summary for Coolidge Bridge Sample – Statistical Summary of Coolidge Bridge Use ........................................................33 3. Travel Data Summary for Coolidge Bridge Sample – Breakdown of Current Use of Alternatives ...........................................................34 4 Attitudinal Data Summary for Coolidge Bridge Sample.......................................43 5. Future Route Choice Breakdown Among Respondents ........................................54 6. Route Choice Models with All Users: One-Category Models..............................57 7. Route Choice Models with All Users: Two-Category Models.............................58 8. Route Choice Models with All Users: Three-Category Models...........................61 9. Route Choice Models with All Users: Likelihood Ratio χ2 Tests .......................63 10. Route Choice Models with Peak Users: One-Category Models...........................65 11. Route Choice Models with Peak Users: Two-Category Models ..........................66 12. Route Choice Models with Peak Users: Three-Category Models ........................67 13. Route Choice Models with Peak Users: Likelihood Ratio χ2 Tests ....................68 14. Future Mode Choices Among Respondents ..........................................................70 15. Mode Choice Models with All Users: One-Category Models..............................74 16. Mode Choice Models with All Users: Two-Category Models .............................75 17. Mode Choice Models with All Users: Three-Category Models ...........................76