UK £2 Issue 206, Year 5 May 19, 2019 EU €2.50 www.thearabweekly.com Uncertainties Election in Turkey over stakes Istanbul rerun in Algeria Page 15 Page 11 Ramadan in the West Page 17 Iran engages in high-risk game of brinkmanship that could lead to war ► Suspicion regarding the responsibility for recent incidents in the Gulf has centred on Iran and its proxies while infighting in Washington seems to muddy US reactions towards Iran. Thomas Seibert tors include the Houthis in Yemen and Iran-backed Shia militias in Iraq but Washington said it had no hard Istanbul evidence. Ali Fathollah-Nejad, a visiting fel- ith its economy wither- low at the Brookings Doha Centre, ing under US sanctions said the oil tanker attacks could and its support in Eu- have been the work of groups linked W rope dwindling after to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary threats to leave the international Guard Corps that wanted to escalate nuclear deal, Iran is playing a high- the situation for their own gains. risk game of brinkmanship in the “They could be provocations by Gulf. elements close to [the] Revolution- The leadership in Tehran vacil- ary Guards to get a war going with lates between tough talk of defeat- the aim of cementing their own ing the United States and claims power in Iran and secure access to that no player in the region wants a financial means for years,” Fathol- war. lah-Nejad said via e-mail. A senior Iranian official told Reu- Saudi Deputy Defence Minister ters that Tehran was ready for all Prince Khalid bin Salman posted scenarios from “confrontation to on Twitter that the drone attack diplomacy.” However, attacks such on two Saudi Aramco pumping sta- as the ones on four oil tankers near tions along the East-West pipeline Fujairah and drone attacks by Iran- was “ordered by the regime in Teh- Dangers ahead. An Emirati man looks on at the port of Fujairah in the Gulf Emirate, May 13. (AFP) backed Houthi rebels in Saudi Ara- ran and carried out by the Houthis.” bia could provoke a war, even if the A state-aligned Saudi newspaper, intention could have been to deter Arab News, published an editorial pare for a military conflict in the “We fundamentally do not seek a cited about it if one looks at official adversaries from a full-scale con- calling for “surgical” US strikes on region even if some of its allies ex- war with Iran,” Pompeo said. “We’re Iranian media’s reaction and that frontation. Iran in retaliation. pressed doubts about Washington’s looking for Iran to behave like a nor- alone will be viewed in Riyadh as Ali Shihabi, CEO of the Arabia assertion that there is an immedi- mal country.” an Iranian admission of culpability,” Foundation in Washington, said if ate threat of Iranian attacks in the Some experts said the May 12 at- Vatanka said. Alex Vatanka senior fellow at the the Iranians can get away with tar- Middle East. Media reports said in- tacks on two Saudi, one UAE and Only days before the attacks on Middle East Institute geting Saudi oil infrastructure then fighting within the administration one Norwegian tankers near the the oil tankers, Iran announced that in Washington “the whole security infrastructure is muddling US reactions towards Strait of Hormuz in the Arabian Gulf it would resume uranium enrich- in the Gulf will be called into ques- Iran. could have been designed by Iran to ment beyond the limits of the 2015 “Limited Iranian operations tion and security premiums on oil The Trump administration or- test the resolve of the United States nuclear deal if European countries against the UAE and Saudi will rise.” dered all non-emergency staff to and its Sunni Muslim allies while are unable to work out a plan within Arabia” might be designed to He said Riyadh was likely to co- leave its embassy in Baghdad and maintaining deniability about its in- 60 days to keep their trade with Iran “signal that war with Iran will ordinate reactions with Washington consulate in Erbil in response to volvement. alive despite crippling US sanctions. not be limited to Iranian soil.” but “eventually what may happen is what the US military called immi- Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at The announcement was met with that just Saudi Arabia and the UAE nent threats to US troops in Iraq. the Middle East Institute in Wash- criticism in Europe at a time when Suspicion has centred on Iran or may have to do something.” Germany suspended a military ington, said Iran appeared to be try- EU support is vital for Iran. its regional proxies. US officials, Quoting informed Gulf sources, training programme in the country. ing to signal to its adversaries that Fathollah-Nejad pointed out speaking to the Associated Press Saudi newspaper Asharq al-Awsat US President Donald Trump the cost of a major confrontation Iran’s threat to violate the bounda- on condition of anonymity, said reported May 18 that “a number of warned Iran that a military confron- would be high. ries of the nuclear deal by boosting investigators sent to the United Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, tation would be devastating for the “In an environment of rising re- uranium enrichment was an effort Arab Emirates reported large holes have approved Washington’s re- country. “It’s going to be a bad prob- gional tensions, limited Iranian to build up bargaining power that in ships anchored offshore were quest to redeploy US forces in Ara- lem for Iran if something happens,” operations against the UAE and could be used later in direct or in- caused by explosive charges that bian Gulf waters and territories to Trump said. “They’re not going to Saudi Arabia” might be designed to direct negotiations with the United they believed were planted by Ira- thwart possible Iranian attacks in be happy.” “signal that war with Iran will not States. nian military divers. the region.” US Secretary of State Mike be limited to Iranian soil,” Vatanka US security agencies said proxies “Such measures would protect Pompeo insisted that despite boost- said. Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly sympathetic to or working for Iran the energy supply and prevent Iran ing US military capability in the Gulf He added that there was no clear correspondent. Kelly Kennedy in may have been behind the attacks. from disrupting maritime traffic in region with B-52 bombers and war- evidence of the Iranian involve- Washington contributed to this Reuters quoted two US government that region,” they added. ships, Washington was not on a col- ment in the drone attacks in Saudi report. sources as saying possible perpetra- Washington continued to pre- lision course with Tehran. Arabia. “But they seem to be ex- P2-7 Tunisia celebrates Sufi female music in Ramadan festival Saber Ben Amer Karoui, were chosen from Tunis, having the praise piece recited by in popular songs. She was sancti- ululations of approval from wom- Djerba, Bizerte and Sousse. an all-female choir accompanied fied after her death and a mauso- en in the audience. “’Lella’ was a show by women by an all-female orchestra. Hence, leum was built around her tomb in “Lella” included a savvy mix- Tunis for women, that is to say, from to- the ‘Lella’ show in the praise of northern Tunis. ture of Sufi music and a variety of day’s Tunisian women to yester- Tunisia’s Sufi female saints from Between choreographed dances other Tunisian celebratory styles, unisian maestro Amina day’s Tunisian female Sufi saints,” north to south,” she said. and scenes, actress Leila Chebbi such as popular bagpipe music, Srarfi and her musical en- Srarfi said. “It’s a celebration of read highly stylised texts detail- the African stambali and the An- semble El’Azifat opened the virtues of Lella Saida Man- ing the history and stories of dalusian Malouf. There were per- More than 20 musicians, the 37th Medina Festival oubia, Lella Arbia, Oum Ezzine Saida Manoubia and other female formances by the El’Azifat choir as T singers and dancers in Tunis with “Lella.” al-Jammalia and other venerated saints. well as individual singing perfor- More than 20 musicians, singers female Sufi saints whose legacies participated in the first Tunisian singer Nabiha Karaouli mances by Chahnaz Dhaoui, Nis- and dancers participated in the have been preserved in the popu- all-female Sufi performed an original rendition of reen al-Frei and Soumaya Mersni. first all-female Sufi programme in lar poetic tradition in Tunisia.” programme in the Arab “Hadhrat al-Shdala,” a hymn dedi- Srarfi said she hoped “Lella” be- the Arab world, which celebrated Srarfi said the idea of the show world, which celebrated cated to Saint Sidi Abdelkader al- comes the nucleus for more am- Tunisia’s female saints from north came when she “found in the ar- Tunisia’s female saints Shadly and usually performed by bitious and more comprehensive to south. chives of my late father a prayer in from north to south. male singers. projects celebrating Tunisia’s Sufi “Lella” (“My Lady”) was di- the praise of the Prophet Moham- Karaouli’s performance was far saints, including male ones, by rected by Hafedh Khalifa and cho- mad that included 43 names of Lella Saida Manoubia is per- removed from the typical male female artists that help preserve reographed by Khira Oubeidallah. the Prophet and which was put to haps the most famous female Sufi style in hymns to male saints. She Tunisian heritage. Srarfi arranged and supervised the music by my late husband, Faisal saint in Tunisia.