Document of the Fernand Braudel Institute of World Economics Associated with the Fundação Armando Alvares Penteado - N. 45 2011 Will offshore discoveries change the course of Brazil’s development? Oil in Deep Waters Norman Gall Ricardo Stuckert/Presidência da República Stuckert/Presidência Ricardo Celebration at the São Paulo Stock Exchange - September 2010 1. “A lottery prize” After Petrobras, Brazil’s state-controlled oil London, nor in New York,” Lula proclaimed. “It company, found giant fields of oil and gas in the was in São Paulo, in our green and gold Bovespa, Santos Basin, at great ocean depths in the South that we consecrated the greatest capital-raising in Atlantic, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva called the history of world capitalism.” the discoveries a bilhete premiado, a winning lottery There have been cascading announcements of ticket. In September 2010, concluding a $70 discoveries since Petrobras and its private partners, billion stock promotion to finance a $225 billion British Gas (BG), Repsol of Spain and GALP of investment program announced by Petrobras, Lula Portugal, began reporting in 2006 that they found a and a clutch of high officials mounted the podium cluster of giant fields up to 300 km. offshore, some at São Paulo’s Bovespa stock exchange in a blizzard 7,000 meters beneath the ocean’s surface, trapped of confetti, wearing bright orange jackets and white safety helmets adorned with Petrobras insignia as Continued on page 2 they posed for photos in the style of a victorious Norman Gall is executive director of the Fernand Braudel Institute of football team. “It was not in Frankfurt, nor in World Economics and editor of Braudel Papers. This issue of Braudel Papers is sponsored by Revenue Watch Institute. 2 BRAUDEL PAPERS in the pores of limestone beneath salt market with government support beds more than 2,000 meters thick. and with privileged access to huge When the first supergiant discovery, reserves in deep waters of the originally called Tupi, was declared Campos and Santos basins. Brazil ready for commercial development is now the world’s biggest market at the end of 2010, the field was for equipment and services in the renamed Lula in homage to the offshore oil industry and Petrobras Fernand Braudel Institute president who was retiring after eight the biggest single buyer. Petrobras is of World Economics years in office with an 80% approval now a conglomerate, with interests Associated with Fundação Armando Alvares Penteado (FAAP) rating in opinion polls. in gas pipelines, supertankers, Rua Ceará, 2 – 01243-010 Seven of the 10 biggest oilfields petrochemicals, electricity São Paulo, SP – Brazil Tel.: 55 11 3824-9633 discovered in the world since generation, fertilizers, ethanol and e-mail: [email protected] 2001 are in the presalt beds biodiesel. Yet in deep waters it www.braudel.org.br of the Santos Basin, according still must overcome problems of Board of directors: to the oil consultancy Wood geology, technology, logistics, safety, Chairman: Antônio Carlos Pereira Mackenzie. “Brazil is the world’s finance, politics, human resources, Vice-chairman: Eduardo José Bernin largest exploratory opportunity,” corporate governance and strategies the investment bank Credit Suisse of economic development. Members: Antonio Carlos Barbosa de Oliveira, Beno Suchodolski, Bianca reported, adding that “the presalt’s This special issue of Braudel Papers Rinzler, Cesar Hirata, Charles B. Neilson, full resource volumes are likely to attempts to analyze the scope and Claudia Maria Costin, Fernão Carlos Botelho Bracher, Gilberto Natalini, Idel be much higher than the volumes depth of these challenges. Metzger, Janet Ortega, Joaquim Elói currently disclosed for licensed Cirne de Toledo, José Luiz Pereira da Costa Dias, Joseana Requejo do Amaral areas.” After partnering in 29 * * * Marcicano, Lourival Sant’Anna, Luiz wells drilled there, BG doubled its Alberto Machado, Mailson da Nóbrega, Maria Helena Guimarães de Castro, estimate of oil and gas reserves for its These great oil discoveries came Maridite Oliveira and Paulo Tenani. 27% share in five exploration blocks at a climax in what has been called to 6 billion barrels of oil equivalent the best phase of Brazil’s history. The Executive director: Norman Gall Coordinator: Nilson Vieira Oliveira (BOE), which would raise the total decades since the end of military Manager: Margarida Osório Guimarães for these projects to roughly 22 rule in 1985 have seen consolidation billion barrels, in only part of what of democracy, curbing decades of Sponsors: now is seen as a vast oil province. chronic inflation and major gains in Armínio Fraga Neto Petrobras is a state-controlled social justice. Democracy, stability BASF company whose shares are publicly with rising consumption gave BM&FBOVESPA traded in São Paulo and New York. Brazilians a benign view of their Bradesco Despite its huge discoveries, the prospects. The Global Attitudes Fundação Itaú Social Fundação Odebrecht stock of Petrobras has languished Survey of Washington’s Pew Research Futurebrand below the price at its $70 billion Center found Brazilians more Instituto Natura stock flotation and even below satisfied with economic conditions Instituto Unibanco levels prevailing before discovery in than the citizens of any of 22 Itaú 2006 of the first giant field in the countries except the Chinese. Some Klabin O Estado de S. Paulo Santos Basin. Brazilian and foreign 77% think Brazil will become, or Unilever investors voiced concern over what already is, a world power, although Worldfund they see as political interference that concept remains vague. Braudel Papers is published by the that has distorted the company’s The past quarter-century in Brazil Fernand Braudel Institute of World priorities and limited its operational coincides with what may be a high Economics capacities as it pursues complex and point of human development that ISSN: 1981-6499 costly efforts to produce oil and gas accelerated during the six decades in the ultra-deep waters of the South after World War II. Prodigious Editor: Norman Gall Deputy editor: Nilson Oliveira Atlantic. advances occurred on a planetary With its offshore discoveries scale in longevity, nutrition, Designer: Givanilson L. Góes since the 1970s, Petrobras is now productivity, communications, among the world’s most highly logistics, science, public health, integrated major oil companies, scholarship and many other fields Copyright 2011 Fernand Braudel Institute of World Economics dominating its large national of endeavor. Middle-class patterns BRAUDEL PAPERS 3 of consumption have been through partnerships with state “our passport to the future” proliferating throughout the companies. The share of state but warned against “hasty world. The challenge today is to companies in world oil industry spending that leaves for future sustain these advances. Brazil has revenues rose from 22% to 33% generations only debts and much to gain or lose from these since 2002. desperation.” Nevertheless, contingencies. Second, the surge of the new production-sharing Brazil indeed may be a special speculative trading of oil on regime fortifies a politically- case. Visiting Brasília in 1976, financial markets since the protected state capitalism with Takeo Fukuda, soon to become early 1980s exaggerated price broad discretionary powers prime minister of Japan, told fluctuations. Prices doubled in and little transparency. A his hosts: “After the oil crisis, it the 12 months to May 2008 reinforced Petrobras monopoly has become clear that resources as traders held hundreds of would reduce chances for are limited. This is a big event thousands of contracts for 849 competition and for spreading in the history of mankind. Your million barrels, or 10 times daily risk among several companies. country is a power in the 21st world production, before prices The new laws oblige Petrobras Century, a resources power.” peaked at $147 a barrel a few to become the operator, with This kind of talk became woven months later. a 30% minimum stake, of all into protocol in other countries’ Third, the financial fragility exploration blocks in “strategic” diplomacy with Brazil. Yet the of global oil companies and deep-water areas embracing talk is coming true. Brazil’s contractors, coupled with the 149,000 km2, an obligation that cornucopia of resources has come growing expense and difficulty would strain Petrobras’s already to life as booming commodity of finding new reserves, led to stretched manpower, financial exports as a world leader in, for mega-mergers over the past two and technical capacities. All example, iron ore, soybeans, decades that created super-majors operating decisions, including beef, poultry, cellulose, sugar and like Exxon-Mobil, Chevron, contracting of personnel, oranges. Guided by Embrapa, Conoco-Phillips and BP-Amoco, suppliers and service providers, the government agricultural as well as super-service providers would be subject to veto by research institute, application of such as Transocean, Halliburton political appointees in a new new techniques transformed the and Schlumberger. state company, PetroSal Petróleo, rolling cerrado scrub forests of Fourth, these new discoveries supervising these ventures. Brazil’s Central Plateau, an area are driven by a revolution in The idea of Brazil as a the size of the Great Plains of geophysics, enabling exploration “resources power” was reinforced the United States, into one of the beneath the massive salt beds by a new frontier in petroleum world’s