The Morning Call/ Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion SURVEY OF LEHIGH VALLEY RESIDENTS ON THE 2004 PRESIDENTIAL, PENNSYLVANIA SENATE, AND 15th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT ELECTION RACES KEY FINDINGS REPORT October 3, 2004 KEY FINDINGS: 1. John Kerry leads George W. Bush in a survey of Lehigh Valley voters by six points – 47% - 41%. 2. Kerry is pulling on traditionally Democratic bases, such as female voters, people under the age of 35 and people over the age of 65 3. In general, people in the Lehigh Valley believe the country is safer from terrorism than it was prior to September of 2001, but do not believe that going to war with Iraq has made the country safer from terrorism. 4. Local opinion on the worth of the War in Iraq continues to have a large impact on preferences for the candidates seeking the White House, with individuals viewing the value of the war negatively overwhelmingly supporting John Kerry and those viewing the war’s worth positively supporting the president in large numbers 5. It appears likely that there will be significant ticket splitting occurring in the Lehigh Valley this fall, with more local voters leaning towards Senator Kerry in his election bid in comparison with support for other Democrats seeking seats in Congress. 6. Senator Arlen Specter maintains a strong lead over Congressmen Joe Hoeffel among Lehigh valley voters in the race to represent Pennsylvania in the United States Senate. 7. In the race for the 15th Congressional Seat being vacated by Pat Toomey, State Senator Charlie Dent is holding a considerable lead over his Democratic opponent Joe Driscoll. METHODOLOGY: The following key findings report summarizes data collected in a telephone survey of 440 registered voters in the Lehigh Valley of Pennsylvania between Septemberl 27 and Oct 3, 2004. The sample of phone numbers used in the survey was generated by Genesys Sampling Systems of Ft. Washington, PA. Interviewing was conducted by the staff of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion. The number of completions results in a margin of error of +/- 4.7% at the 95% confidence interval. However the margin of errors for sub groups such as registered Democrats and Republicans is larger due to smaller sample size. Percentages throughout the survey have been rounded upward at the .5 mark, thus many totals in the results will not equal 100%. The survey questionnaire was designed by Christopher Borick, Ph.D. of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in consultation with staff members of the Morning Call. Analysis and report writing were completed by the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion under the direction of Dr. Borick. THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY With election day just under a month away, John Kerry leads President George W. Bush by six points in the Lehigh Valley. Among registered voters in Lehigh and Northampton counties, 47% say they will be voting for Kerry on November 2, while 41% say they will be voting for Bush, with just 6% of registered voters still undecided who to vote for. When voters are asked to choose among Bush, Kerry, or independent candidate Ralph Nader, Kerry remains in the lead, by a slightly slimmer margin. When Nader is in the race, Kerry leads 44% to Bush’s 39%, with Nader receiving 5% of the vote. These are among the key findings in the most recent Morning Call/Muhlenberg College survey of voters in the Lehigh Valley. Since we began tracking this race in late December of 2003, we have seen a gradual decline in President Bush’s favorability within the Lehigh Valley, and a steady increase in unfavorable ratings. As can be seen in Table One below, Bush’s favorability in the Valley has declined by 10% since last December, while conversely his level of unfavorable ratings has risen 13%. As for Senator Kerry, there has been an expected Increase in his name recognition since last year, yet his ratio of favorable to unfavorable rating has remained very constant. TABLE ONE What is your impression of the following candidates…George W. Bush? September 2004 May 2004 March 2004 December 2003 Favorable 44% 50% 51% 54% Unfavorable 50% 43% 44% 37% Neutral/Not sure 6% 6% 5% 9% Have not heard of him 0% 1% <1% <1% John Kerry? September 2004 May 2004 March 2004 December 2003 Favorable 46% 40% 45% 31% Unfavorable 44% 40% 39% 28% Neutral/Not sure 9% 17% 14% 17% Have not heard of him 0% 3% 2% 24% Looking closely at the characteristics of the people voting for John Kerry, we see that Kerry is pulling on traditional Democratic bases. Kerry leads in the Lehigh Valley among women, by a ten-point margin. Forty-nine percent of women indicate they will be voting for Kerry, while 39% say they will be voting for Bush. Among men, Kerry and Bush are in a dead heat, with Bush receiving 44% of men’s votes and Kerry receiving 45%. Worth noting is the percentage of women who remain undecided as to whom to vote for in the Presidential Election. Among registered voters, 9% of women remain undecided, while 3% of men are undecided as to whom to vote for. In the spring of 2004, Kerry led among female voters, but Bush commanded a substantial lead among male voters, which is traditionally the gender gap in recent presidential elections. Since the spring, however, women’s votes remain relatively unchanged, but male voters have shifted in favor of Kerry. A full breakdown of voter preferences by gender is listed in Table One below. TABLE TWO Presidential Preference by Gender (Spring and Fall 2004) Male Female Spring Fall Spring Fall 2004 2004 2004 2004 John Kerry 35% 45% 49% 49% George W. Bush 54% 44% 37% 39% Unsure 5% 3% 7% 9% Kerry also leads among voters who are under 35 years of age, and over 65 years old. Fifty-three percent of registered voters between the ages of 18 and 34 say they will be voting for Kerry, while 34% of 18-34 year-olds indicate they will be voting for the President. Among senior citizens, a traditionally Democratic group, Kerry leads in the Lehigh Valley by a margin of 52% to 42%. The war in Iraq continues to divide the preferences of Lehigh Valley voters. Of the people who report that the war in Iraq was worth fighting, 86% of them support President Bush in the November election, while only 8% of them support Senator Kerry. Conversely, only 9% of the people who say the war in Iraq was not worth fighting are supporting the President in his bid for re-election and 80% of them are supporting Kerry. Even more significant is the relationship between a voter’s candidate preference and his/her rating of whether or not going to war with Iraq has made the United States safer from terrorism. Of those who believe that the U.S. is safer since it has gone to war with Iraq, 91% are planning to vote for President Bush, while just 6% are planning to vote for Senator Kerry. Of those who believe that going to war with Iraq has not made the United States safer from terrorism, 12% say they will be voting for Bush and 74% say they will be voting for Kerry. TABLE THREE Voter’s Candidate Preference by Whether Going to War with Iraq has made the United States Safer from Terrorism Vote for Bush Vote for Kerry Undecided Going to war with Iraq has 91% 6% 1% made U.S. safer from terrorism Going to war with Iraq has not 12% 74% 10% made U.S. safer from terrorism A significant relationship also exists between a voter’s candidate preference and his/her belief as to whether the United States has found clear evidence that Iraq supported al-Qaeda. Of those who believe that the U.S. has found a link between Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda, 76% report that they will vote for Bush, while 18% say they will vote for Kerry. During the race for the presidency much has been made of the effect of religious affiliation on voter preference. Most notably, the Catholic vote has received considerable attention because of the contrast between John Kerry’s status as a practicing Catholic, and his differences with church teachings on issues such as abortion. Among Lehigh Valley Catholics we find Kerry to be leading Bush by a margin of 52% to 42%. Conversely, The president maintains a 50% to 44% lead among Valley Protestants. Given Kerry’s lead among Catholics and Bush’s lead among protestants (the largest religious group within the valley), the vote of individuals from faiths outside Christianity and from individuals who are not affiliated with a religion are quite important. More specifically, Kerry leads Bush by a margin of to 56% to 27% among Lehigh Valley residents who are non-Christian or not religious. As may be expected, one’s area of residence appears to impact their preference for president. Within the Valley’s urban core of Allentown, Easton and Bethlehem, the Massachusetts Senator maintains a strong 54%-37% margin over the current chief executive of the nation. Conversely, Bush is doing best in the Valley’s more rural communities, holding a slight 52% to 47% lead over Kerry. With the urban rural split in place, the Valley’s growing suburbs appear to be an exceptionally key battleground. The findings from this study show a dead heat, with both candidates receiving 44% of local voter support. THE WAR IN IRAQ Lehigh Valley voters continue to be critical of the war in Iraq and the ongoing war on terror.