Volume 5, Issue 6 • June 2009 Obama in Motion Views about how President Barack Obama is handling his responsibilities as president are generally positive, although negative impressions about his handling of the economy have risen. Favorable impressions of Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have dropped, but Michelle Obama is more popular than four months ago and more popular than her husband. Nearly six in ten view the Democratic Party favorably; four in ten give that response about the GOP. Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling . ? ——His job as president—— ———Foreign affairs——— ———The economy——— Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove February 2009 63% 26% 54% 22% 59% 30% May 2009 61 34 59 32 55 42 Note: In the late May poll, 55 percent approved of the job the president was doing handling terrorism, while 37 percent disapproved. Forty- six percent approved of his handling the budget deficit (48 percent disapproved). Forty-five percent approved of his efforts to control federal spending, while 51 percent disapproved. Source: Gallup/USA Today. Q: As I read some names, please tell me if you have a . ? ———Barack Obama——— ————Joe Biden———— ———Michelle Obama——— Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable January 2009 78% 18% 63% 20% 68% 18% May 2009 67 32 April 51 28 76 13 Source: Gallup/USA Today. Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center. Q: I’d like to get your opinion of some groups and organizations. Is your overall opinion of . ? Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable The Democratic Party The Republican Party January 2009 62% 32% January 2009 40% 55% April 2009 59 34 April 2009 40 51 Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center. AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; John Fortier, Research Fel- Research Assistants: Adam Foster, Editor; Jennifer Marsico. low; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Michael Barone, Interns: Helen Moser; Andrew Rugg. Resident Fellow. 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org Party Profiles In May, Gallup reported that movement away from the GOP between 2001 and 2009 occurred among virtually all major age, racial, regional, educational, income subgroups, and among men and women and married and unmarried individ- uals. The party lost only a little ground among conservatives and held steady among frequent churchgoers. The data below, from Gallup and Pew, provide some perspective on the strength of the parties. In Pew’s poll, GOP identification is at its lowest point in two decades; just 23 percent identify as Republicans. Pew tells us that the GOP has lost a quarter of its adherents over the past five years. There may be a ray of hope for the GOP in these polls: Thus far in 2009, Republican losses haven’t translated into Democratic gains. In the Reagan years, according to Pew, Democratic losses did translate into GOP gains. More recently, Republican defectors have moved into the independent camp. The proportion of inde- pendents is at its highest point in seventy years. AGE: Democrats enjoy an advantage over Republicans among every age group in recent Gallup and Pew polling. That advantage is especially pronounced among the young. It remains to be seen whether Barack Obama will be able to cement a generational allegiance among them. The average age of those who identify as Republicans has been getting older: twenty years ago, it was 44, now it is 48. The average age of self-identified Democrats is unchanged. Average age (Pew) Percentage age 50 and older today 2009 1990 Republican 48.3 years 44.1 Republican 46% Democrat 46.6 46.8 Democrat 44 Independent 43.8 41 Independent 37 REGION: Republican strength in party identification in all four regions has declined since 2001 in Pew and Gallup data. Turning to actual votes, according to a recent analysis by the National Journal, the Republican Electoral College and popular vote tally outside the South since 1992 is “the party’s worst performance for any five-election sequence” since 1854. The South has provided “at least 59 percent of the Electoral College vote by the GOP nominee since the 1992 elec- tion.” The GOP’s reliance on the South and erosion elsewhere are signs of significant problems. Party identification by region (Pew) In the… ——Northeast—— ——Midwest—— ———South——— ——West—— 2009 1990 2009 1990 2009 1990 2009 1990 Republican 20% 31% 24% 30% 25% 32% 23% 34% Democrat 38 34 31 31 35 36 34 31 Independent 37 30 38 32 34 27 36 29 GENDER: In Gallup’s polling from the first quarter of 2009, Democrats had a double-digit advantage over Republicans among women. Among men in the Pew and Gallup data, the two parties remain competitive. In recent years, many men have moved from the GOP camp into the independent camp. Party identification by gender (Gallup) Men Women Republican 24% 22% Democrat 28 41 Independent 42 31 (continued on the next page) 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 2 EDUCATION: Here we show Gallup data on party identification and those who lean to the party among college graduates. The parties were closely matched in 2001. Today, the Democrats have a substantial advantage. The Republicans have lost more ground among those with a postgraduate education (13 percentage points) than those with a college education (10 points) in the 2001 to 2009 period. A recent analysis by the National Journal shows that Democrats carried 78 of the 100 counties with the highest percentage of college graduates today. In 1988, the Republicans won two-thirds of those same counties. Party identification among college graduates (Gallup) 2001 2009 Democrat or lean to the Democratic Party 46% 52% Republican or lean to the Republican Party 47 37 RACE and ETHNICITY: Whites were 90 percent of the electorate in the 1976 election; in 2008, they were 74 percent. In Pew’s data from 2009, 88 percent of self-identified Republicans are white, 2 percent black, and 6 percent Hispanic. Among Democrats, 56 percent are white, 22 percent black, and 15 percent Hispanic. Republicans Democrats Independents White 88% 56% 72% Black 2 22 7 Hispanic 6 15 12 Note: Sixty-eight percent of adults in Pew’s survey said they were white, 12 percent black, and 14 percent Hispanic. THE BOTTOM LINE: Democrats enjoy substantial advantages today. Q: In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent? Gallup Pew Republican and those who lean to the party 39% 36% Democrat and those who lean to the party 53 53 Source: Data for the Party Profiles section come from Gallup and Pew, 2009. The Next Republican Captain: TBA Save the Date—Continuity of Government Commission Q: Next, I’m going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in 2012. After I read all the Issues New Report names, please tell me which candidate you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the On July 2nd, the AEI-Brookings Continuity of year 2012, or if you would support someone else. Government Commission will release a new report on presidential succession. A catastrophic Republicans attack could render the current line of succes- Would support for sion useless, leaving America in an especially Republican nomination vulnerable position. The latest report from this in 2012 blue-ribbon bipartisan commission offers seven Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 22% specific recommendations for fixing the flaws Alaska Governor Sarah Palin 21 in the current presidential succession process. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 21 AEI will host a panel discussion on July 2nd to Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich 13 discuss problems with the existing system of Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush 6 succession and potential reforms to improve Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, May 2009. the process. More details to come; please see www.aei.org. 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 3 Ideological Identification: A Clear Case of Consistency Despite dramatic changes in the fortunes of the political parties and in party affiliation in the past thirty-five years, ideo- logical identification nationally has remained remarkably stable. Among young people, there has been some movement. In recent years, there has been an uptick in the proportion of college freshmen calling themselves liberal and, separately, conservative, but most of them say they are somewhere in between. Pew notes that although Barack Obama is taking the nation in a very different direction from his predecessor on economic, domestic, and foreign policy issues, “there is no commensurate sea-change in public values.” Q: Do you think of yourself as . ? 50 National Response 40 Moderate 30 Conservative Liberal 20 10 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: National Opinion Research Center. On June 15, Gallup released the results of polling conducted thus far in 2009 and found that 40 percent identified them- selves as conservative, 35 percent as moderate, and 21 percent as liberal. For 2008, those responses were 37 percent con- servative, 37 percent moderate, and 22 percent liberal. Gallup notes that these figures “have shown little change over the past decade.” Seventy-three percent of Republicans called themselves conservative, 24 percent moderate, and 3 percent liberal. Twenty-two percent of Democrats described themselves as conservative, 40 percent as moderate, and 38 percent liberal. Thirty-four percent of independents called themselves conservative, 45 percent moderate, and 20 percent liberal.