TRAFIKPROGNOS FÖR SVENSKA FLYGPLATSER 2030 Rapport till TEN-T Publikation 2014:096 Ersätter publikation 2013:107 Trafikprognos för svenska flygplatser till 2030 – rapport till TEN-T TRV 2013:107 INNEHÅLL 1 BAKGRUND ................................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 METOD OCH BAKGRUNDSPROGNOSER ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 Inrikesprognos ............................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1.2 Utrikesprognoser ........................................................................................................................................ 5 1.1.3 Nya flygplatser och övriga antaganden ..................................................................................................... 6 1.1.4 Inrikes linjenät ............................................................................................................................................ 7 1.2 SAMMANFATTNING OCH DISKUSSION AV FLYGPLATSEGENSKAPER ........................................................................................ 9 1.2.1 Inrikesflygplatser ........................................................................................................................................ 9 1.2.2 Utrikesflygplatser ..................................................................................................................................... 11 1.2.3 Arlanda och Bromma ................................................................................................................................ 11 1.2.4 Sammanfattning ....................................................................................................................................... 14 2 FLYGPLATSVISA BEDÖMNINGAR .............................................................................................................. 15 2.1 SWEDAVIA AB:S FLYGPLATSER ................................................................................................................................... 15 2.1.1 Stockholm/Bromma och Stockholm/Arlanda ........................................................................................... 15 2.1.2 Göteborg/Landvetter ................................................................................................................................ 16 2.1.3 Kiruna ....................................................................................................................................................... 17 2.1.4 Luleå ......................................................................................................................................................... 19 2.1.5 Malmö/Sturup .......................................................................................................................................... 19 2.1.6 Ronneby .................................................................................................................................................... 20 2.1.7 Sundsvall-Härnösand (Sundsvall-Timrå) ................................................................................................... 21 2.1.8 Umeå ........................................................................................................................................................ 22 2.1.9 Visby ......................................................................................................................................................... 23 2.1.10 Åre-Östersund ...................................................................................................................................... 24 2.2 UPPHANDLINGSFLYGPLATSER ..................................................................................................................................... 24 2.2.1 Trafikavtal 2011-2015 och prognosförutsättningar ................................................................................. 24 2.2.2 Arvidsjaur och Lycksele ............................................................................................................................. 25 2.2.3 Gällivare ................................................................................................................................................... 27 2.2.4 Hemavan-Tärnaby och Vilhelmina ........................................................................................................... 27 2.2.5 Pajala-Ylläs ............................................................................................................................................... 29 2.2.6 Torsby och Hagfors ................................................................................................................................... 30 2.2.7 Sveg och Mora .......................................................................................................................................... 31 2.2.8 Storuman .................................................................................................................................................. 32 2.3 UTRIKESFLYGPLATSER ............................................................................................................................................... 33 2.3.1 Göteborg/Säve ......................................................................................................................................... 33 2.3.2 Norrköping och Linköping ......................................................................................................................... 34 2.3.3 Stockholm-Skavsta ................................................................................................................................... 35 2.3.4 Stockholm-Västerås .................................................................................................................................. 36 2.4 ÖVRIGA FLYGPLATSER .............................................................................................................................................. 36 2.4.1 Borlänge ................................................................................................................................................... 36 2.4.2 Halmstad .................................................................................................................................................. 37 2.4.3 Jönköping.................................................................................................................................................. 37 2.4.4 Kalmar ...................................................................................................................................................... 38 2.4.5 Karlstad .................................................................................................................................................... 38 2.4.6 Kramfors-Sollefteå .................................................................................................................................... 39 2.4.7 Kristianstad ............................................................................................................................................... 40 2.4.8 Oskarshamn .............................................................................................................................................. 41 2.4.9 Skellefteå .................................................................................................................................................. 41 2.4.10 Trollhättan-Vänersborg ....................................................................................................................... 42 2.4.11 Växjö .................................................................................................................................................... 43 2.4.12 Ängelholm-Helsingborg ....................................................................................................................... 43 2.4.13 Örebro .................................................................................................................................................. 44 2.4.14 Örnsköldsvik ......................................................................................................................................... 44 3 SAMMANFATTANDE RESULTAT ................................................................................................................ 46 4 BILAGA 1: TRANSEUROPEISKT TRANSPORTNÄT........................................................................................ 48 5 BILAGA 2: JÄMFÖRANDE TRAFIKSTATISTIK 2012 ...................................................................................... 49 i Trafikprognos för svenska flygplatser till 2030 – rapport till TEN-T TRV 2013:107 6 BILAGA 3: TRAFIKFLYGPLATSER 2013........................................................................................................ 50 7 BILAGA 4: TRAFIKFLYGPLATSERNAS DRIFTSORGANISATION ..................................................................... 51 8 BILAGA 5: DRIFTRESULTAT STATLIGA FLYGPLATSER ................................................................................. 52 9 BILAGA 6: DRIFTRESULTAT ICKE-STATLIGA FLYGPLATSER ......................................................................... 53 10 BILAGA 7: UTBETALDA DRIFTBIDRAG