ISSN: 2560-1601 Vol. 23, No. 1 (BH) November 2019 Bosnia-Herzegovina political briefing: BIH- Government formation negotiations, a year after Ivica Bakota 1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11. +36 1 5858 690 Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. [email protected] Szerkesztésért felelős személy: Chen Xin Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping china-cee.eu 2017/01 BIH- Government formation negotiations, a year after 13 months after the last general elections (October 2018) new central government (Council of Ministers) is finally starting to be formed. On November 19, BIH Presidency decided to nominate Zoran Tegeltija for new COM Chairman, opening path for government formation and unlocking defense reform, much needed for future cooperation with NATO. After long 13 months of non performing negotiations between three main political parties, premature agreements (“Troyka agreement” in August) and some false hopes for early settlement, Serb MOP Milorad Dodik, Bosniak MOP Sefik Dzaferovic and Croat MOP Zeljko Komsic finally agreed to put forward SNSD nominee Zoran Tegeltija for a government caretaker. Indications on possible breakthrough was announced by mid-November when HDZ BIH and SNSD leaders Dragan Covic and Milorad Dodik met in Mostar and “agreed on all disagreements” regarding the formation of the Council of Ministers. The third party, Bosniak SDA came to terms a week later. Among many issues that stood as hurdles in year-long negotiations, from realization of Membership Activation Plan (MAP) to Annual National Program (ANP), a compromise was reached by making official agreement to send a defense reform program to NATO Headquarters in Brussels, which will be done by the NATO Permanent Mission in BIH. However, to pre-empt any suspicions on whether this means a ‘green light’ for NATO integration, Serb MOP Milorad Dodik, soon after the meeting, additionally explained that this reform program is not exactly a controversial ANP and that "no document prejudicing NATO membership has been adopted". Confusion as to what means “reform program” and how does it differ from adoption of ANP still exists and is raised by opposition both in Srpska and the Federation. SDP BIH and Our Party on joint press conference asked Presidency to make additional explanation and make clear what the Reform program means for BIH-NATO relations. SDP BIH was convinced that the compromise was reached with great concessions to Dodik, while, on the other hand, Serb opposition accuses Dodik (Serb MOP and Chairman of ruling SNSD) for betraying pan-Serb anti-NATO consensus. New COM Chairman Zoran Tegeltija After the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina unanimously decided to approve the BIH Reform Program and nominate Zoran Tegeltija as the new Chairman of the Council of Ministers, 1 the further procedure for finalizing the process of government formation is in the hands of the House of Representatives of the BIH Parliamentary Assembly. Zoran Tegeltija is a Serb, SNSD member, originally proposed by (Serb MOP and SNSD leader) Dodik to stand as COM Chairman. He has already passed security checks and his appointment is now awaiting confirmation by the House of Representatives, after which his appointment should pass the Committee for the Preparation of the Council of Ministers, which has already been formed and to which the BIH Presidency is required to submit a proposal. The Committee has a three-day deadline to make a recommendation to the House of Representatives for confirmation of the mandate of a new government caretaker. The House of Representatives is required to comment on the proposal within three days of receiving a recommendation from the Commission. After confirming Tegeltija's appointment, the Committee is obliged to appoint ministers and deputy ministers, and to ask the House of Representatives to confirm their appointment within 35 days. This exquisitely dry procedure would be neglected in normal circumstances, however considering the opposition outside of Troyka (SNSD, SDA and HDZ BIH), Committee and HOP might as well prolong appointment decision. According to current estimates, however, it shouldn`t extend for a period much longer than usual time need to convene Committee. Positive indications were also raised following the first public address of Zoran Tegeltija after being nominated as a new COM Chairman. He is still awaiting his appointment on the session of the Parliamentary Committee after which he expects in the first week of December to appear before the BIH Parliamentary Assembly and present his program. He hasn’t confirmed the names of some future ministers, but it is almost certain that previous ‘turf division’ between three constitutional nations will not be changed. Parties from Republika Srpska, as it was announced, will have Ministry of Human Rights and Refugees, Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations and the Ministry of Transport and Communication, the rest of the position will be divided between HDZ BIH, SDA and DF. In general, it is expected that his term would be about rekindling stalled economic reforms, or in his words, his priorities would be "economics, economics and economics." As many before him, he has promised to establish a full system of coordination between central and cantonal level of governments as well as between the FBIH and RS governments. He assessed that blockages in the COM should not be difficult to address as long as “they are economic issues, while stumbling blocks could only be political issues”. Therefore, he promised he would strive for the COM not to be a place where political issues would be confronted, “instead these issues should be addressed at the level of the Presidency”. He particularly emphasized adopting the budget of the central for 2020 saying that it would be 2 frivolous to spend another year on provisional financing. ANP or reform program, Dodik et al Most comments were directed towards announced program for reforms in defense sector (or simply reform program). Issue problematized in inter-party discussions is whether reform program (expected to be delivered in near future) is acceptable substitute for ANP and is it calibrated to reflect a middle ground between principled (military) neutrality by Serb parties and progress on NATO accession path by the main Bosniak and Croat parties (for details on BIH positions on NATO, see report from March). Some have called the program halfway solution to ANP, some important “stand in” document that allows BIH to continue our relationship and cooperation with NATO. NATO headquarters in Brussels hailed the decision claiming that it will unblock the much needed reforms supported by NATO, but they are also not unequivocal on the question as to whether this program differs from ANP, which is required by NATO for the continuation of MAP (Membership Activation Plan) process for BIH. In their statement it is only said: "We look forward to working with Bosnia and Herzegovina on the basis of the Reform Program. As for the document itself, we have not received it yet, so it is premature to comment on it. In general, this Program will help Bosnia and Herzegovina strengthen its cooperation with NATO. Reflecting concessional nature of the program was Bosniak MOP Sefik Dzaferovic who emphasized that the document is in accordance with the principle of the rule of law and it respects the laws and decisions made so far. This document, as he also explained, is supported by international community and NATO. SDP BIH, largest non-Troyka party expectedly holds the opposite view. Although new central government started to make a breakthrough and BIH is becoming responsive to NATO, the party is convinced that sending program to Brussels means victory for “Dodik's obstructionist policy”. According to Zukan Helez, SDP Vice Chairman, appointment of Zoran Tegeltija is a conscious indulgence of Bosniak and Croat MOPs Sefik Dzaferovic and Zeljko Komsic, “who forsaken state interests at the expense of Milorad Dodik and knowingly stopped Bosnian and Herzegovinian NATO path”. HDZ BIH is also strong supporter of NATO but is of the opinion that ANP controversy should not have been tied with formation of COM at the first place. Most of opposition parties in the federation hold that the most dangerous is leaning to Dodik`s side as announcement by SDA President Bakir Izetbegovic seems to suggest. If there is no NATO path without Milorad Dodik, as Izetbegovic said, they indicate that such a position is itself a big concession to Dodik and indirectly a triumph of “policy of minimizing BIH”. The 3 official stance of SDA, on the other hand, is still legalist in principle, i.e. an entity cannot overstep jurisdiction of the state, so to them a compromise is entailed in recognizing single decision-making authority of Presidency in deciding country`s NATO's path. Izetbegovic on other occasion talked about returning the positions RS and Serbs had on NATO 10 year back, but as long as Dodik remains closest partner in Republika Srpska to negotiate cooperation with NATO (provided that other Serb parties are, as they are now, more extreme) he is not likely to moderate his positions, let alone erase 10 years of steady anti-NATO course Republika Srpska is taking. Electoral law reform and the Croats A main issue between Croat and Bosniak parties within the Federation (FBH),i.e. the electoral law reform was left untouched during the meeting of the Presidency. Nevertheless, changes to the Election Law are an important issue within federal politics and will significantly impact inter-ethnic relations in the country and cooperation of HDZ BIH, main Croat political party, in creating roadmap for possible solutions regarding cooperation with NATO. Supportive to the HDZ BIH in its effort to fight that "one constituent people do not elect political representatives to another" is a Serb SNSD. On meeting with Izetbegovic by mid-November, HDZ BIH leader Covic made it very clear that after solution on the central level, the main question will remain on the federal level.