ALICE IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA: A FINANCIAL HARDSHIP STUDY 2020 SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA REPORT United Way of Southwest Virginia ALICE IN THE TIME OF COVID-19 The release of this ALICE Report for Southwest Virginia comes during an unprecedented crisis — the COVID-19 pandemic. While our world changed significantly in March 2020 with the impact of this global, dual health and economic crisis, ALICE remains central to the story in every U.S. county and state. The pandemic has exposed exactly the issues of economic fragility and widespread hardship that United For ALICE and the ALICE data work to reveal. That exposure makes the ALICE data and analysis more important than ever. The ALICE Report for Southwest Virginia presents the latest ALICE data available — a point-in-time snapshot of economic conditions across the region in 2018. By showing how many Southwest Virginia households were struggling then, the ALICE Research provides the backstory for why the COVID-19 crisis is having such a devastating economic impact. The ALICE data is especially important now to help stakeholders identify the most vulnerable in their communities and direct programming and resources to assist them throughout the pandemic and the recovery that follows. And as Southwest Virginia moves forward, this data can be used to estimate the impact of the crisis over time, providing an important baseline for changes to come. This crisis is fast-moving and quickly evolving. To stay abreast of the impact of COVID-19 on ALICE households and their communities, visit our website at UnitedForALICE.org/COVID19 for updates. ALICE REPORT, JULY 2020 1 SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ALICE IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTRODUCTION In 2018, 115,460 households in Southwest Virginia — 51% — could not afford basic needs such as housing, child care, food, transportation, health care, and technology. This ALICE Report for Southwest Virginia describes the population called ALICE, an acronym for Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed — families with income above the Federal Poverty Level (FPL) but not high enough to afford basic household necessities or save for the future. These households contribute to Southwest Virginia’s economy by earning, spending, and paying taxes, yet they still struggle to make ends meet. Even though the cost of living in the region is lower than in the rest of the state, it is higher than what most residents earn. ALICE households live in all 21 counties and independent cities of Southwest Virginia and they include women and men of all ages, races, and ethnicities. Despite recent reports of overall improvement in employment and gains in median incomes, the economic recovery in Southwest Virginia since the end of the Great Recession in 2010 has been uneven. Many families continue to face challenges because of low wages, little to no savings, and the increasing cost of basic household goods. The total number of Southwest Virginia households that are below the ALICE Threshold increased 5% between 2010 and 2018. This ALICE Report for Southwest Virginia, a collaborative project of United Way of Southwest Virginia and the research initiative United For ALICE, presents research and data on the 21 counties and independent cities of Southwest Virginia. As a companion to the statewide 2020 ALICE Report for Virginia, it provides an important comparison to the rest of the state. In this report, data are also available by Planning District Commissions (herein Commissions). GLOSSARY ALICE is an acronym that stands for Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed — households with income above the Federal Poverty Level but below the basic cost of living. A household consists of all the people who occupy a housing unit. In this Report, households do not include those living in group quarters such as a dorm, nursing home, or prison. The Household Survival Budget estimates the actual bare-minimum costs of basic necessities (housing, child care, food, transportation, health care, and a basic smartphone plan) in Southwest Virginia, adjusted for different counties and household types. The Senior Survival Budget incorporates specific cost estimates for seniors for food, transportation, and health care, reflecting key differences in household expenses by age. The Household Stability Budget calculates the costs of supporting and sustaining an economically viable household over time, including a contingency for savings. The ALICE Threshold is the average income that a household needs to afford the basic necessities defined by the Household Survival Budget for each county in Southwest Virginia. Households Below the ALICE Threshold include both ALICE and poverty-level households. The ALICE Essentials Index is a measure of the average change over time in the costs of the essential goods and services that households need to live and work in the modern economy — housing, child care, food, transportation, health care, and a smartphone plan. ALICE REPORT, JULY 2020 2 SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WHO IS ALICE? With income above the Federal Poverty Level (FPL) but below a basic survival threshold — defined as the ALICE Threshold — ALICE households earn too much to qualify as “poor” but are still unable to make ends meet. They often work as cashiers, nursing assistants, office clerks, servers, laborers, and security guards. These types of jobs are vital to keeping Southwest Virginia’s economy running smoothly, but they do not provide sufficient wages to cover the basics of housing, child care, food, transportation, health care, and a smartphone plan for these ALICE workers and their families. In 2018, there were 224,346 households in Southwest Virginia, and of these, 19% had income below the FPL. However, the FPL is an inadequate measure of financial hardship as it has not taken into account changes in cost of living, or geographic variation across the country, since it was introduced in the 1970s. The ALICE Threshold, a metric of financial insecurity that measures income against the actual cost of household necessities (a Household Survival Budget of housing, child care, food, transportation, health care, and a smartphone plan), shows many more households struggling: in 2018, 32% of households in Southwest Virginia were ALICE. The economy of Southwest Virginia was less prosperous than the rest of the state in 2018, resulting in a higher concentration of income insecurity. In 2018, 51% of Southwestern Virginia households lived in poverty or were ALICE, compared to 39% of all Virginia households (Figure 1). And while Southwest Virginia households made up only 7% of the state’s total, they accounted for 13% of households in poverty and 8% of ALICE households. Figure 1. Household Income, Southwest Virginia and Virginia, 2018 70% 61% 60% 49% 50% 40% 32% 29% 30% Percent of Households 19% 20% 10% 10% 0% Poverty ALICE Above ALICE Threshold Southwest VA (224,346 Households)Virginia (3.17 Million Households) Sources: American Community Survey, 2018; ALICE Threshold, 2018 ALICE REPORT, JULY 2020 3 SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA In Southwest Virginia, as in many places around the country, the number of households in poverty has fallen. Looking at the FPL alone, financial hardship seemed to have improved during the “recovery” from the Great Recession. The ALICE measures, however, show an improving economy did not benefit all families. Between 2010 and 2018, there was an increase in the number of ALICE households (Figure 2). Even as the total number of households in Southwest Virginia fell by 3% between 2010 and 2018, the percentage of households below the ALICE Threshold increased: In 2010, 48% of households did not make enough to afford the Household Survival Budget; in 2018, that percentage reached 51%. Figure 2. Household Income, Southwest Virginia, 2010–2018 80,000 70,000 ALICE 60,000 72,679 50,000 40,000 Poverty Households 30,000 42,781 20,000 10,000 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Percent Below ALICE 48% 49% 51% 48%51% Threshold Sources: ALICE Threshold, 2010-2018; American Community Survey, 2010-2018 Geographic pockets like Southwest Virginia can have more concentrated rates of income insecurity, which are often concealed by aggregate state numbers. In 2018, while 39% of Virginia households were financially insecure, a much larger proportion — 51% of Southwestern Virginia households — lived in poverty or were ALICE. Within Southwest Virginia, some Commissions had higher concentrations of households below the ALICE Threshold. Figure 3 shows the region’s Commissions, along with their number of households and percentage of households below the ALICE Threshold in 2018; the latter ranged from 48% in Mount Rogers to 57% in Lenowisco. ALICE REPORT, JULY 2020 4 SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA Figure 3. Planning District Commissions, Household Income by Commission, Southwest Virginia and Virginia, 2018 Counties and Total Percent Below Commission Independent Cities Households ALICE Threshold Cumberland Plateau Planning District Buchanan, Dickenson, 42,719 56% Commission Russell, Tazewell Lenowisco Planning District Commission Lee, Norton City, Scott, Wise 34,861 57% Bland, Bristol City, Carroll, Mount Rogers Planning District Commission Galax City, Grayson, Smyth, 78,751 48% Washington, Wythe Floyd, Giles, Montgomery, New River Valley Regional Commission 68,015 49% Pulaski, Radford City The above 21 counties and Southwest Virginia 224,346 51% independent cities 133 counties and Virginia 3,169,804 39% independent cities Sources: Virginia Employment Commission 2020; American Community Survey, 2018; ALICE Threshold, 2018 Broken into smaller geographic units, Southwest