VOLUME ONE HUNDRED TWENTY ADVANCES IN AGRONOMY ADVANCES IN AGRONOMY Advisory Board PAUL M. BERTSCH RONALD L. PHILLIPS University of Kentucky University of Minnesota KATE M. SCOW LARRY P. WILDING University of California, Davis Texas A&M University Emeritus Advisory Board Members JOHN S. BOYER KENNETH J. FREY University of Delaware Iowa State University EUGENE J. KAMPRATH MARTIN ALEXANDER North Carolina State, University Cornell University Prepared in cooperation with the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America Book and Multimedia Publishing Committee DAVID D. BALTENSPERGER, CHAIR LISA K. AL-AMOODI CRAIG A. ROBERTS WARREN A. DICK MARY C. SAVIN HARI B. KRISHNAN APRIL L. ULERY SALLY D. LOGSDON VOLUME ONE HUNDRED TWENTY ADVANCES IN AGRONOMY Edited by DONALD L. SPARKS Department of Plant and Soil Sciences University of Delaware Newark, Delaware, USA AMSTERDAM • BOSTON • HEIDELBERG • LONDON NEW YORK • OXFORD • PARIS • SAN DIEGO SAN FRANCISCO • SINGAPORE • SYDNEY • TOKYO Academic Press is an imprint of Elsevier Academic Press is an imprint of Elsevier 525 B Street, Suite 1900, San Diego, CA 92101-4495, USA 225 Wyman Street, Waltham, MA 02451, USA 32 Jamestown Road, London, NW1 7BY, UK The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford, OX5 1GB, UK Radarweg 29, PO Box 211, 1000 AE Amsterdam, The Netherlands First edition 2013 Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 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Because of rapid advances in the medical sciences, in particular, independent verification of diagnoses and drug dosages should be made ISBN: 978-0-12-407686-0 ISSN: 0065-2113 For information on all Academic Press publications visit our website at store.elsevier.com Printed and bound in USA 13 14 15 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 CHAPTER ONE Food, Nutrition and Agrobiodiversity Under Global Climate Change Sangam Dwivedi*,1, Kanwar Sahrawat*, Hari Upadhyaya*, Rodomiro Ortiz† *International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Patancheru, Andhra Pradesh, India †Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Plant Breeding and Biotechnology, Sundsvagen, Alnarp, Sweden 1Corresponding author: E-mail: [email protected] Contents 1. Introduction 3 2. Moisture Stress and Rising CO2 and Temperature Impacts on Food Quality 6 2.1. Drought, Heat and Grain Quality 7 2.1.1. Protein and Protein Quality 7 2.1.2. Oil and Oil Quality 9 2.1.3. Minerals 9 2.1.4. Carbohydrates 12 2.1.5. Tocopherol (Vitamin E) 14 2.2. Rising CO2, Heat and Grain Quality 14 2.2.1. Protein and Protein Quality 14 2.2.2. Oil and Oil Quality 15 2.2.3. Minerals 17 2.2.4. Carbohydrates 17 2.3. Elevated CO2 and Forage Quality for Ruminants 17 3. Global Warming and Altered Pathogens and Pests Impacts on Crop Production and Quality 20 3.1. Crop Pathogens and Pests in a Changing Climate 21 3.2. Plant Pathogen Scenarios under Climate Change 21 3.3. Emerging Changes in Pest Dynamics under Climate Change 25 3.4. Adapting Crops to Emerging Pathogens and Pests 26 4. Management and Prevention of Aflatoxin 27 4.1. Modeling Climatic Risks to Aflatoxin Contamination 27 4.2. Geostatistics and Geographic Information Systems to Monitor Spatial Variability in Aflatoxin 30 4.3. High-Throughput and Cost-effective Assays to Detect Aflatoxin 32 4.4. Atoxigenic Fungal Strain as Biocontrol Agent to Manage Aflatoxin Contamination in Crops 34 4.5. A System-Based Approach to Control Aflatoxin Contamination 39 Advances in Agronomy, Volume 120 © 2013 Elsevier Inc. ISSN 0065-2113, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-407686-0.00001-4 All rights reserved. 1 2 Sangam Dwivedi et al. 5. Agrobiodiversity to Enhance Nutritional Quality of Food Crops 42 5.1. Global Warming Changes Plant and Soil Biodiversity 42 5.1.1. Plant Biodiversity 42 5.1.2. Soil Biodiversity 45 5.2. High-Throughput Assays for Monitoring Nutritional Traits 47 5.2.1. Minerals from the Soil Samples 48 5.2.2. Minerals from Plant Tissues or Grains Samples 49 5.3. Profiling Genetic Variation for Nutritional Traits 52 5.3.1. Variation for Fe, Zn, Phytate and Carotenoids 52 5.3.2. Variation for Protein and Oil Concentrations and Their Quality in Maize 54 5.3.3. Variation for Improving Oil Quality in Peanut 55 5.4. Sustaining Food Quality by Manipulating Soil Microbial Diversity 55 6. Climate Change Analog Locations Representing Future Climate 60 7. Plant Phenomics to Screen Traits for Adapting to Stresses 62 7.1. Root System Architecture 63 7.2. High-Throughput Imaging to Diagnose and Quantify Plant Response 66 7.3. Sensor-Based Phenotyping Platform for Assessing Biomass 69 7.4. Developing Modules to Store, Retrieve, Add or Modify Large Datasets 70 8. Plant Traits to Accelerate Adaptation to Climate Change 71 8.1. Genetic Enhancement for Adaptation to Abiotic Stress 71 8.2. Integrating Trait Diversity to Develop Climate-Proof Nutritious Crops 74 8.2.1. Drought Adaptation in Cereals 74 8.2.2. Submergence and Phosphorus Deficiency Tolerance in Rice 79 8.2.3. Adaptation to Drought in Legumes 81 8.2.4. Salinity Tolerance in Cereals and Legumes 86 8.2.5. Biofortification to Enhancing Nutritional Quality of Food Crops 87 8.3. Genetically Modified Crops Tolerant to Abiotic Stresses 88 9. Outlook 91 Acknowledgments 95 References 95 Abstract Available evidence and predictions suggest overall negative effects on agricultural production as a result of climate change, especially when more food is required by a growing population. Information on the effects of global warming on pests and pathogens affecting agricultural crops is limited, though crop–pest models could offer means to predict changes in pest dynamics, and help design sound plant health management practices. Host-plant resistance should continue to receive high priority as global warming may favor emergence of new pest epidemics. There is increased risk, due to climate change, to food and feed contaminated by mycotoxin-producing fungi. Mycotoxin biosynthesis gene-specific microarray is being used to identify food- born fungi and associated mycotoxins, and investigate the influence of environmental parameters and their interactions for control of mycotoxin in food crops. Some crop wild relatives are threatened plant species and efforts should be made for their in situ conservation to ensure evolution of new variants, which may contribute to addressing Climate Change Impacts on Food and Feed 3 new challenges to agricultural production. There should be more emphasis on germ- plasm enhancement to develop intermediate products with specific characteristics to support plant breeding. Abiotic stress response is routinely dissected to component physiological traits. Use of transgene(s) has led to the development of transgenic events, which could provide enhanced adaptation to abiotic stresses that are exacer- bated by climate change. Global warming is also associated with declining nutritional quality of food crops. Micronutrient-dense cultivars have been released in selected areas of the developing world, while various nutritionally enhanced lines are in the release pipeline. The high-throughput phenomic platforms are allowing researchers to accurately measure plant growth and development, analyze nutritional traits, and assess response to stresses on large sets of individuals. Analogs for tomorrow’s agri- culture offer a virtual natural laboratory to innovate and test technological options to develop climate resilience production systems. Increased use of agrobiodiversity is crucial to coping with adverse impacts of global warming on food and feed production and quality. No one solution will suffice to adapt to climate change and its variability. Suits of technological innovations, including climate-resilient crop cultivars, will be needed to feed 9 billion people who will be living in the Earth by the middle of the twenty-first century. 1. INTRODUCTION The world’s population will be ∼9 billion in 2050, when the concen- tration of carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone will be 550 ppm and 60 ppm, respectively and the climate will be warmer by 2 °C ( Jaggard et al., 2010). To sufficiently feed these 9 billion people, the total food production will have to be increased by 70% within 2011–2050 to meet a net demand of ∼1 billion t of cereals for food and feed and 200 million t of meat (WSFS, 2009). The evidence accumulated also suggests crop yield decline at tem- peratures above 30 °C (Boot et al., 2005; Schlenker and Roberts, 2009). Likewise crop quality will be likely less nutritious, thereby spreading more malnutrition in the developing world (Dwivedi et al., 2012 and the refer- ences therein). Climate models predict that warmer temperatures and increases in the frequency and duration of drought during the twenty-first century will have negative impact on agricultural productivity (Lobell and Field, 2007; Kucharik and Serbin, 2008; Battisti and Naylor, 2009; Schlenker and Lobell, 2010; Roudier et al., 2011; Thornton et al., 2011; Lobell et al., 2011a,b). For example, maize production in Africa could be at risk of significant yield losses as researchers predict that each degree-day that the crop spends above 30 °C reduces yields by 1% if the plants receive sufficient water (Lobell et al., 2011a); these predictions are similar to those reported for maize yield 4 Sangam Dwivedi et al.