Aleutian & Pribilof Islands Regional Energy Plan Phase II – Report Update December 2015 Prepared by Southwest Alaska Municipal Conference 3300 Arctic Blvd., Ste. 203 Anchorage, Alaska 99503 Information Insights 212 Front Street, Suite 100 Fairbanks, Alaska 99701 Aleutian & Pribilof Islands Regional Energy Plan Phase II: Report Update | 1 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We would like to thank the following individuals and organizations for sharing their time, data and expertise. Their assistance has been invaluable. Alaska Division of Community and Regional Affairs (DCRA) Bulk Fuel Loan Program: Jane Sullivan Alaska Energy Authority (AEA): Alan Baldivieso, Katie Conway, Josh Craft, Jedidiah Drolet, Chris Gobah, Daniel Hertrich, Jessie Huff, Cady Lister, David Lockard, Kris Noonan, Douglas Ott, Devany Plentovich, Richard Stromberg, Jeff Williams Alaska Housing Finance Corporation (AHFC): Jimmy Ord, Scott Waterman Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority (AIDEA): Mike Catsi Agdaagux Tribal Council: Della Trumble Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium (ANTHC): Gavin Dixon, Eric Hanssen Aleut Corporation: Tara Bourdukofsky, Patricia Lekanoff-Gregory, Janet Reiser Aleutian Housing Authority: Dan Duame, Erin Wilson, Kennedy Serr, John Santos Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association: Bruce Wright Aleutian Pribilof Island Community Development Association (APICDA): Everette Anderson, Shawn Hansen, Angel Drobnica Aleutian Region School District: Joseph Beckford Aleutians East Borough: Ernest Weiss Aleutians East Borough School District: Doug Conboy Central Bering Sea Fishermen's Association (CBSFA): Jeff Kauffman Eastern Aleutian Tribes: Jennifer Harrison, Edgar Smith Frosty Fuels, Cold Bay: Michael Tickle City of Adak: Layton Lockett City of Akutan: Tuna Scanlan, Mary Tesche, Dianne Woodruff City of Atka: Julie Dirks, Jennifer Kost City of Cold Bay, G&K Utility: Gary Ferguson City of False Pass: Chris Emrich City of King Cove: Gary Hennigh, Henry Mack City of Sand Point: Andy Varner, David Osterback City of St. George: Patrick Pletnikoff City of St. Paul: Linda Snow, John Melovidov, Phyllis Swetzof, Kenneth Weaver,Mike Dahl, Bill Mathews City of Unalaska: Shirley Marquardt, Jim Fitch, Chris Hladick, Don Moore, Dan Winters Isanotski Corporation, False Pass: Sue Parker Nelson Lagoon Tribal Council: Paul Gunderson Nikokski Clinic: Doris Kompkoff Ounalashka Corporation, Unalaska: David Gregory Peter Pan Seafoods, King Cove: Glenn Guffey Petro Star, Inc.: Don Castle Pribilof School District: Connie Newman Aleutian & Pribilof Islands Regional Energy Plan Phase II: Report Update | 2 Qagan Tayagungin Tribe of Sand Point: Jason Bjornstad, Tiffany Jackson RMA Consulting Group (for City of Akutan): Raymond Mann Shumagin Corporation, Sand Point: Glen Gardner, Charlotte Gunderson Siemens Industry, Inc.: Amber McDonough TDX Power: Agafon Krukoff, Kord Christianson, James Dunn, Ron Philemonoff Trident Seafoods: Ken McHugh UAF Interior-Aleutians Campus: Mike Hirt, Bryan Uher US Department of Energy: Givey Kochanowski USDA Rural Development: Jolene John Vitus Marine: Mark Smith Westward Seafoods / Alyeska Seafoods, Dutch Harbor: Alex Bacco, Wilt Sinclair, Chris Spengler Cover photo: Piergiuliano Chesi [CC by 3.0], via Wikimedia Commons. Inset photos (clockwise from top left): INN Electric Cooperative, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Clickr Bee, Wolf Solar Electric Aleutian & Pribilof Islands Regional Energy Plan Phase II: Report Update | 3 CONTENTS Acronyms and Abbreviations ...........................................................................................7 Executive Summary ...........................................................................................................9 1 | Regional Energy Planning ..........................................................................................15 Planning Area ...............................................................................................................16 Recommended Strategies ..............................................................................................17 2 | Energy Supply and Demand ......................................................................................21 Electric Power ...............................................................................................................21 Fuel Vendors and Prices ...............................................................................................29 Current and Projected Demand .....................................................................................32 Renewable Energy ........................................................................................................37 Energy Efficiency & Conservation ...............................................................................46 3 | Energy Resource & Savings Potential .......................................................................51 Energy Resource Potential ............................................................................................51 Savings Potential from Increased Diesel Efficiency .....................................................52 Savings Potential from Addressing Line Loss ..............................................................54 Savings Potential from Expanding Community PCE Use ............................................55 Savings Potential from Increased Energy Efficiency ...................................................56 4 | Stakeholder Outreach .................................................................................................59 Outreach Activities .......................................................................................................59 Next Steps .....................................................................................................................61 5 | Energy Projects & Priorities ......................................................................................63 6 | Community and Energy Profiles ...............................................................................71 A | Stakeholder Participation ....................................................................................... A-1 B | Analysis of Resource Potential ................................................................................B-1 C | Community Input and Priorities ........................................................................... C-1 D | Works Cited ............................................................................................................. D-1 E | Data Sources .............................................................................................................E-1 Aleutian & Pribilof Islands Regional Energy Plan Phase II: Report Update | 4 INDEX OF FIGURES Figure 1: Regional Energy Planning timeline .................................................................................... 16 Figure 2: Aleutian & Pribilof Islands Energy Planning Region........................................................... 16 Figure 3: Data availability by energy sector ..................................................................................... 21 Figure 4: 2014 Electrical sales by utility ........................................................................................... 21 Figure 5: Regional electrical generation by utility and resource, 2014 (MWh) ................................. 22 Figure 6: Diesel fuel used for electrical generation, 2014 ................................................................ 25 Figure 7: Diesel efficiency, 2014 ...................................................................................................... 25 Figure 8: Residential electrical rates by community, 2014 ............................................................... 29 Figure 9: Average diesel price paid by utilities, 2014 ....................................................................... 29 Figure 10: Retail price of #1 fuel oil ................................................................................................. 30 Figure 11: Regional electrical sales by customer type, 2014 ............................................................ 33 Figure 12: Regional trends by utility, resource, and population, 2010-2014 .................................... 34 Figure 13: Trends in average monthly use by customer type in Unalaska, St. Paul, and King Cove .. 35 Figure 14: Population trends by community, 2000-2014 ................................................................. 36 Figure 15: Aleut region residential energy use ................................................................................ 46 Figure 16: Aleut region residential energy costs compared with other regions ............................... 47 Figure 17: Energy efficient housing stock, as of April 2014 .............................................................. 48 Figure 18: Diesel Efficiency at Different Load Sizes, FY2013 PCE Data .............................................. 53 Figure 19: Prioritization of regional energy strategies ..................................................................... 60 INDEX OF TABLES Table 1: Energy resource potential and certainty for new community-scale projects ...................... 10 Table 2: Proposed Regional Energy Roadmap ................................................................................. 11 Table 3: Administrative jurisdictions within the Aleutian & Pribilof Islands energy region .............. 17 Table 4: Factors for successful energy projects