THE POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT OF PACIFIC PEOPLES IN NEW ZEALAND Leon Carlton Iusitini A thesis submitted to Auckland University of Technology in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Arts (MA) 2013 School of Social Sciences and Public Policy Table of Contents Attestation of Authorship ............................................................................................ 1 Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................... 2 Abstract ........................................................................................................................... 3 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ................................................................................ 4 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW .................................................................... 11 2.1 Political engagement in New Zealand and theories of voting ..................... 11 2.1.1 Turnout and political engagement ................................................................. 13 2.1.2 The sociological approach to voting choice ..................................................... 17 2.1.3 The psychological approach to voting choice .................................................. 22 2.1.4 The rational choice approach to voting choice ................................................ 26 2.2 Pacific peoples’ political engagement in New Zealand ................................ 29 2.2.1 Pacific peoples’ turnout and political efficacy ................................................ 29 2.2.2 Pacific peoples’ partisanship and voting preferences ...................................... 35 2.2.3 Pacific peoples’ political representation .......................................................... 39 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY .............................................................................. 43 3.1 Rationale for merging NZES datasets ............................................................. 44 3.2 Method for merging NZES datasets ................................................................ 47 3.3 Determination of ‘Pacific respondents’ and their participation rates ......... 50 3.4 Recoding of variables ......................................................................................... 52 3.5 Analysis ................................................................................................................ 56 CHAPTER 4: THE SAMPLE ...................................................................................... 58 4.1 Socio-demographic factors ................................................................................ 58 4.2 Work and income-related factors ..................................................................... 60 CHAPTER 5: POLITICAL EFFICACY..................................................................... 63 5.1 Internal political efficacy ................................................................................... 64 5.1.1 Bivariate analysis ............................................................................................ 64 5.1.2 Multivariate analysis ...................................................................................... 66 5.2 External political efficacy .................................................................................. 69 5.2.1 Bivariate analysis ............................................................................................ 69 i 5.2.2 Multivariate analysis ...................................................................................... 70 5.3 Conclusion ........................................................................................................... 73 CHAPTER 6: POLITICAL PARTICIPATION ....................................................... 74 6.1 Active electoral participation ............................................................................ 75 6.1.1 Bivariate analysis ............................................................................................ 75 6.1.2 Multivariate analysis ...................................................................................... 76 6.2 Passive electoral participation .......................................................................... 82 6.2.1 Bivariate analysis ............................................................................................ 82 6.2.2 Multivariate analysis ...................................................................................... 84 6.3 Non-electoral participation ............................................................................... 89 6.3.1 Bivariate analysis ............................................................................................ 89 6.3.2 Multivariate analysis ...................................................................................... 90 6.4 Conclusion ........................................................................................................... 91 CHAPTER 7: PARTISANSHIP AND VOTING CHOICES ................................ 93 7.1 Partisanship ......................................................................................................... 93 7.1.1 Bivariate analysis ............................................................................................ 93 7.1.2 Multivariate analysis ...................................................................................... 94 7.2 Voting choices ..................................................................................................... 97 7.2.1 Bivariate analysis ............................................................................................ 97 7.2.2 Multivariate analysis ...................................................................................... 99 7.3 Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 102 CHAPTER 8: DISCUSSION ................................................................................... 103 8.1 Political efficacy ................................................................................................ 103 8.2 Political participation ....................................................................................... 106 8.3 Partisanship and voting choices ..................................................................... 108 8.4 Implications ....................................................................................................... 110 8.5 Limitations ......................................................................................................... 117 8.6 Conclusions ....................................................................................................... 119 APPENDIX 1: Table 3.4 Recoding of Demographic and Socio-Economic Variables in NZES Surveys 1996-2011 .................................................................. 121 APPENDIX 2: Table 7.1 and Table 7.2 ................................................................... 124 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 128 ii List of Figures Figure 3.1 Excerpt from Methodology Spreadsheet of Example NZES Survey Question ......................................................................................................................... 47 List of Tables Table 2.1 Pacific MPs that have served in the New Zealand Parliament ............ 42 Table 3.1 Pacific Respondents in New Zealand Election Study 1996-2011 ......... 51 Table 4.1 Numbers (Column Percentages) of Socio-Demographic Factors Among Pacific and Non-Pacific NZES Respondents .............................................. 59 Table 4.2 Numbers (Column Percentages) of Work and Income Factors Among Pacific and Non-Pacific NZES Respondents ............................................................ 62 Table 5.1a Understanding of MMP by Pacific Ethnic Status ................................. 64 Table 5.1b Interest in Politics by Pacific Ethnic Status ........................................... 65 Table 5.1c Is Politics Too Complicated by Pacific Ethnic Status ........................... 66 Table 5.1d Binary Logistic Regression Predicting Understanding of MMP as a Function of Psychological, Behavioural, and Socio-Demographic Variables ..... 58 Table 5.2a Do People Have Say by Pacific Ethnic Status ....................................... 63 Table 5.2b Do Political Elites Care by Pacific Ethnic Status .................................. 70 Table 5.2c Binary Logistic Regression Predicting External Efficacy as a Function of Psychological and Socio-Demographic Variables ............................................... 72 Table 6.1a Turnout by Pacific Ethnic Status ............................................................ 75 Table 6.1b Contributed Money to a Party or Candidate by Pacific Ethnic Status ......................................................................................................................................... 76 Table 6.1c Attended Meetings or Rallies by Pacific Ethnic Status ........................ 76 Table 6.1d Binary Logistic Regression Predicting Turnout as a Function of Psychological and Socio-Demographic Variables ................................................... 78 Table 6.1e Binary Logistic Regression Predicting Attendance at Political Meetings as a Function of Psychological and Socio-Demographic Variables ..... 81 Table 6.2a Discussed Politics by Pacific Ethnic Status ..........................................