Impressum Publisher Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung e.V. (PIK) Postal address P.O. Box 601203 14412 Potsdam Germany Visitor address Telegrafenberg 14473 Potsdam Germany Phone +49 - 331-288-2500 Fax +49 - 331-288-2600 E-mail [email protected] Internet http://www.pik-potsdam.de Main Editor Margret Boysen Technical Management Dietmar Gibietz-Rheinbay Layout Margret Boysen (photo layout), Dietmar Gibietz-Rheinbay (template design), Wilhelmine Seelig, Ursula Werner (technical assistance). Cover design: POLYFORM, Büro für Grafik- und Produktdesign, Berlin. Printed by neue odersche Verlag und Medien GmbH Photo and Illustration Credits Illustrations: Front cover: Pol de Limbourg “Très Riches Heures du duc de Berry”, Janvier: le duc à table (banquet scene), vellum, 15th Century, Calendrier, Ms. 65/ 1284 f.1v, Musée Condé, Chantilly, France, © Giraudon/Brigdeman Art Library. Back cover: Pol de Limbourg, “Très Riches Heures du duc de Berry”, Novembre: la glandée; (feeding acorns to the pigs), vellum, avec zodiaque, 15th Cen- tury, Calendrier. Ms. 65/1284 f.11v, vellum. Musée Condé, Chantilly, France, © Giraudon/Bridgeman Art Library. Inside: all illustrations by PIK scientists or from publications to which PIK scientists have contributed, except: p. 13: Simon Bening, “Die Sint- flut”, 16. Jh. © Faksimile Verlag Luzern (www.faksimile.ch); p. 104: reprinted with permission from: Vörösmarty, C.J. et al., 2000, Science, 289, pp. 284-288, © AAAS; p. 101 POLYFORM, Büro für Grafik- und Produktdesign; p. 90, p. 100: Architektenbüro Borck, Boye, Schaefer. Photos by: ARDAU Weinimport GmbH (www.hola-iberica.de): p. 75; Hans Bach: (© PIK) pp. 19, 20, 22, 87, 92 bottom, 93 middle, 94 middle, 95, 96 1st row right, 97, 100 right; Helmut Biess: (© PIK) p. 14; Friedrich Karl Borck: p. 96 2nd row middle; Heinke Boysen: p. 111; Margret Boysen: pp. 83 right, 89, 92 top, (© PIK) pp. 18, 21; Lutz Hannemann: (© PIK) pp. 5, 10; Hans Hubberten: p. 85 (detail); F. Krügler: p. 85 (detail; © DMG); Matthew C. Larsen, U.S. Geological Survey: p. 37; Lothar Lindenhan: (© Architektenbüro Borck, Boye, Schaefer) pp. 92 middle, 93 top, 94 left; 96 3rd row left, 96 3rd row middle, (© PIK) pp. 9, 81, 82 left, middle, 83 middle, 96 2nd row left, 96 2nd row right, 96 3rd row right, 96 bottom row left, 96 bottom row middle, 96 bottom row right, 99, 100 left; NASA: p. 85; Stefan Rahmstorf: pp. 82 right, 83 left; Restaurierungsbetrieb für Architekturfassungen Hans Karo: p. 96; Dietrich Schaefer: pp. 11, 93 bottom; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber: p. 71 (Sequoia sempervirens); Uwe Schröter: p. 38; Richard Simonis: p. 23 (Flooding in the Sossusvlei desert, Namibia, end of September 1997); Tokyo Shimbun: p. 9. The copyright is with the author, if not indicated otherwise. Table of Contents Looking Back 5 The First 10 Years 7 Petra Schellnhuber: an Obituary 10 The Institute and its Mission 11 The Potsdam Approach to the Integrated Investigation of Climate Change 13 Departments 15 Five Scientific Departments to Advance the Knowledge Base 17 Climate System 18 Global Change & Natural Systems 19 Global Change & Social Systems 20 Integrated Systems Analysis 21 Data & Computation 22 Research 23 The Evolution of PIK’s Research Programme 25 TOPIK 1 - Nonlinear Dynamics of the Ecosphere 29 TOPIK 2 - Management of Singular Events 35 TOPIK 3 - Socio-economic Causes of Global Change 40 TOPIK 4 - Emergence of a Global Subject 42 TOPIK 5 - Regional Simulators 46 TOPIK 6 - Sectoral Climate Sensitivity 50 TOPIK 7 - PIKuliar Culture 54 Completed Projects 60 Sustainability Science 71 Integrating Science for Sustainability 73 Coevolution of Nature, Society and Science - The Dynamics of a Complex Relationship Becomes Critical 73 The First Sustainability Days 79 The First Sustainability Days and the 10th Anniversary of PIK 81 The New Main Building 87 The Historic Astrophysical Observatory 89 From the Royal Astrophysical Observatory to the Climate Impact Research Institute 90 3 The New High-Performance Computer 97 The Big 42-Check - an Interview 99 Scientific Relations 101 A Network for Our Future 103 Public Relations 109 Appendix 113 Organization Chart 115 Boards 116 Publications 2000/2001 118 Scientific Events 130 External Funding 135 Co-operations 141 Members of Staff 156 Campus Map 160 4 Looking Back 6 The First 10 Years By Udo E. Simonis Times of change are times of chances. And so it was from the natural and the when after German re-unification the question arose of social sciences. The new where to preserve scientific capacities and where to build Potsdam Institute for Cli- new ones, and more so, how to meet the new challenges mate Impact Research (PIK) that were in need of first class science. was thus destined to become an inter-disciplinary and pol- Climate research had quite a tradition in both East and icy-oriented research institu- West Germany. Climate impacts and global change, tion of high international however, were still largely unexplored. The decision then reputation. to establish an innovative research institute in Potsdam was, probably, an easy one, in reverence for the genius loci Basically, the founding mem- of that historic center of research. To define the tasks of bers discussed Gilbert F. the new institute was not that easy. White’s suggestion that the future condition of the The promoters in the ministries in Bonn and Potsdam, globe’s interlocking natural however, had a good idea. They wrote an elemental and social systems might paper and appointed a founding committee, with experi- depend more on human enced administrators and renowned academicians, both behaviour than on the fur- ther investigation of natural 1991 Recommendation of the Wissenschaftrat processes. Thus a strong social science component was July (German Science Council) to establish an agreed upon, intensive debates on the institute’s concept institute for climate impact research and projects started, and the prompt appointment of a brilliant, imaginative director and prominent leading sci- 1991 First meeting of the Founding Committee of the October Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research entists helped to get things going. (PIK), a registered society (e.V.) in Potsdam Personally, I do recall the struggle with Klaus Hasselmann 1991 Inaugural meeting, establishing the statutes of the who, at that time, did not think that the social sciences had December institute and appointing H.J. Schellnhuber as its much to say on climate impacts. My repeated hints on the Founding Director role economists – and rather conservative ones at that! - played in US climate research, made him think twice and, 1992 Official foundation of PIK by the German Federal later on, he became a respected speaker at international January 1 Ministry of Science and Technology and the Ministry of Science, Research and Culture of the State of economic institutes … Brandenburg The institution’s further evolution was, of course, not 1993 Inauguration of PIK´s provisional building on the without struggle and battle on resources, location, April Telegrafenberg in Potsdam - departure from the appointments, and even on the name and its logo. In his- offices in Berlin torical perspective, however, such contests appear as 1994 Constituent assembly of the international stimulating and constructive; the Board of Trustees was February Scientific Advisory Board of PIK a reliable and determined guard. 1994 Inauguration of PIK’s first parallel supercomputer In the minutes of the very first meeting of PIK’s found- Novem- IBM RS 6000 SP by Manfred Stolpe, Prime Minister ber of the State of Brandenburg ing committee two specific features had been stressed - integrated scientific assessments and innovative societal 1998 Institute review by an evaluation committee of the functions: The challenge, it said, is to develop solutions October Wissenschaftsrat to result in an expert report for highly complex man-nature interactions, to coordi- 2001 10 years of PIK - inauguration of the new main nate those solutions and to bridge the gap between theo- October building and the new high-performance computer retical modelling of processes and practical implementa- during the First Sustainability Days tion of policies. 7 Parts of PIK´s first brochure. For years this structure proved quite successful and led Over the years, this basic mission of PIK was again and to a first grade evaluation by the “Wissenschaftsrat”, the again transmitted to its own members and its outside German Science Council, who in 1999 defined PIK as collaborators. A resourceful Scientific Advisory Board “an outstanding research facility”. (SAB) was established that took up intensive discussions with an ever growing number of researchers from vari- Mitigation of and adaptation to climate change were ous disciplines. PIK thus became deeply involved in major themes of that first period of research work. thoroughly investigating the geophysical, ecological and Through data analyses, computer simulations and mod- socio-economic aspects of climate change, and climate- els, PIK provided sound information on and proposed impact research became part of a more comprehensive appropriate goals, instruments and strategies for sustain- Earth system analysis. able development, now and in the future. In addition to pro-active publishing in peer-reviewed journals and For various reasons and deliberately so, the concept and high-calibre books, scientific advice was given to structure of the research work at PIK changed in the national and regional authorities, to industry, non-gov- course of time. The work was first conducted in a matrix ernmental organisations and civil society at large. structure, and research management was based on departments, the Climate System, Natural Systems, Over the years, need was felt to revise the programme Social Systems and Data & Computation Department, and to develop a new research profile – TOPIK2K, an complemented by a Department for Integrated Systems outcome of an elaborate internal contest and major Analysis dedicated to methodologies that cut across tra- efforts for increased excellence. In close collaboration ditional scientific boundaries.