THE NEW DOGS OF WAR: THE FUTURE OF WEAPONIZED ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE A Threatcasting Report from the Army Cyber Institute at West Point and Arizona State University’s Threatcasting Lab THE NEW DOGS OF WAR: THE FUTURE OF WEAPONIZED ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE THE NEW DOGS OF WAR: THE FUTURE OF WEAPONIZED ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Technical Report from Threatcasting West 2017, a workshop hosted at Arizona State University in conjunction with Army Cyber Institute. Report and workshop produced by Brian David Johnson in conjunction with Alida Draudt, Natalie Vanatta, and Julia Rose West. The photographs showcased in this report were taken on campus at Arizona State University. The fact that these tools in many ways level the playing field, amplifying the power of adversaries that may be (militarily or economically) less capable. Consider the case of Russia and last year’s election as an example. And it’s a double whammy; it’s not clear that the obvious, direct methods of counteracting cyber attacks are effective (you can’t un-spill the milk after hacking of a political candidate). This demands new strategies that I don’t know are fully in place. “ - Sean P. Cornelius, Northeastern University If we are to outmaneuver our adversaries in cyber space, then we have to be better at imagining the futures they may hope to exploit, and then set the conditions that will ultimately prevent them from harming us. This is not a one-time thing, but a process that gets refined as new information becomes available. We all (government, academia and the private sector) need to ideate and work together to do this right. We can’t let this be just an Army thing. 05 “ - Fernando Maymi, Soar Technology Table of Contents Participants and Lab Team 09 Army Cyber Institute Overview 09 Arizona State University Threatcasting Lab About 10 The New Dogs of War 12 Threatcasting A Brief Overview Threats 17 AI Surveillance and Coercion: The New Dogs Of War 18 The AI Weapons Factory 19 Careless Destabilization of National Security Actions 23 Academia 23 Industry 25 Non-profits 26 Individuals 26 Government Post Analysis Themes 29 The Long Game 29 Trust 30 Job Loss 30 Human-Centric Current Work and Implications 32 AI Surveillance And Coercion: The New Dogs Of War 36 The AI Weapons Factory 38 Careless Destabilization Of National Security 42 Conclusion Threat Futures 14 The AI Weapons Factory 15 A Hole in the Heart 21 The Edge of Nothing 24 Little Sister Lost 27 Trust Fall 07 31 Old Dogs. New Tricks. 37 The Automatic Spy 41 James and the Giant Truck Appendices 44 Threatcasting Explained – Extended Version 47 Research Inputs 63 Research Synthesis Workbooks (raw) 90 Futures Workbook Day One (raw) 127 Futures Workbook Day Two (raw) Participants Michael G. Bennett ASU Center for Law, Science and Innovation Diana M. Bowman Arizona State University Jason Brown US Army Steve Brown BaldFuturist.com Aaron Chan Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army (Research and Technology) Sean P. Cornelius Northeastern University Jeremiah Cottle United States Secret Service, Office of Strategic Planning & Policy Don Stanley Dalisay United States Military Academy Thomas Dougherty United States Secret Service, Office of Strategic Planning & Policy Frank Downs ISACA Bridy Godwin US Army Network Enterprise Technology Command Christopher Hartley Army Cyber Institute at West Point Jason Huff Lockheed Martin Corporation Nolan Hedglin United States Military Academy Richard Johanning AECOM Terence M. Kelley Army Cyber Institute at West Point Toby Kohlenberg Paul LaDue US Army Network Enterprise Technology Command Ryan Lee United States Air Force Academy Ian MacLeod Fractal Industries Fernando Maymi Soar Technology Andrew Maynard Arizona State University Sean P. McCafferty Army Cyber Command Jack Murray US Army TRADOC, Army Capabilities Integration Center Robert Norwood United States Military Academy James Pruneski United States Military Academy Blake Rhoades Army Cyber Institute at West Point Heather Ross Arizona State University, Global Security Initiative Gregory Try United States Secret Service, Office of Strategic Planning & Policy Austin Yamada The University of Arizona Jessica Zhu United States Military Academy And many others ….. ASU Threatcasting Lab Team Brian David Johnson Director Natalie Vanatta Senior Advisor to the Lab Alida Draudt Futurist Julia Rose West Futurist ASU Center for Law, Science and Innovation Arizona State University US Army BaldFuturist.com Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army (Research and Technology) Northeastern University United States Secret Service, Office of Strategic Planning & Policy Army Cyber Institute United States Military Academy United States Secret Service, Office of Strategic Planning & Policy Unique within the U.S. military, the Army Cyber Institute at West Point is an innovative mix ISACA of academic think tank and operational laboratory. ACI’s multi-disciplinary team of military, US Army Network Enterprise Technology Command Army Cyber Institute at West Point industry, and academic entrepreneurs develop intellectual capital through research and Lockheed Martin Corporation partnerships, enabling the U.S. to outmaneuver its adversaries in cyberspace. Positioned to United States Military Academy establish and maintain relationships with the nation’s economic center of gravity in New York AECOM City, the ACI also directs and synchronizes efforts across the U.S. Military Academy in the cyber Army Cyber Institute at West Point domain. The ACI collaborates with the U.S. Army Cyber Command and U.S. Army Cyber Center of Excellence to prevent strategic surprise and ensure the Army’s cyber dominance. US Army Network Enterprise Technology Command United States Air Force Academy Fractal Industries Soar Technology Arizona State University Army Cyber Command US Army TRADOC, Army Capabilities Integration Center United States Military Academy United States Military Academy Army Cyber Institute at West Point Arizona State University, Global Security Initiative United States Secret Service, Office of Strategic Planning & Policy The University of Arizona United States Military Academy And many others ….. Arizona State University Threatcasting lab The Threatcasting Lab at Arizona State University serves as the premier resource for strategic ASU Threatcasting Lab Team insight, teaching materials, and exceptional subject matter expertise on Threatcasting, envisioning possible threats ten years in the future. The lab provides a wide range of organizations Director and institutions actionable models to not only comprehend these possible futures but to a means Senior Advisor to the Lab to identify, track, disrupt, mitigate and recover from them as well. Its reports, programming and Futurist materials will bridge gaps, and prompt information exchange and learning across the military, Futurist academia, industrial, and governmental communities. The New Dogs of War The Future of Weaponized Artificial Intelligence In May 2017, Arizona State University (ASU) hosted Threatcasting West, a workshop run by the Threatcasting Lab, a joint endeavor between ASU and the Army Cyber Institute. The event brought together individuals from across the military, government, academia and private industry to envision possible threats ten years in the future and what actions can be taken to identify, track, disrupt, mitigate, and recover from possible threats. A previous Threatcasting East workshop (August 2016, West Point, NY) identified threats resulting from the weaponization of data, including artificial intelligence (AI) and its effect on global supply chains. Threatcasting West 2017 continued this exploration, delving specifically into how next generation threat actors could use AI along with advanced machine learning techniques against the United States military, government, industry and private citizens. Over the course of two days, 47 participants created 22 unique threat futures, exploring the advancement of AI, the diminishing ability to conduct covert intelligence gathering, the growing complexity of code, and future division of work roles between humans and machines. As a part of the workshop, subject matter experts (SMEs) provided research inputs from which the participants developed their models. This research included the following: How to interrogate and rethink the very nature of AI (Dr. Genevieve Bell), Can we develop AI without losing control over it? (Sam Harris), Cyber considerations for humans and intelligence gathering (Dr. Dave Gioe), How to approach Threatcasting and future modeling from an economic perspective (Paul Thomas), What will be the growth, impact, and future of applying AI to real world industries? (Andre LeBlanc), and A survey of cyber growth and our relationship with machines (MAJ Natalie Vanatta, Ph.D.). Full transcripts of these inputs are located in Appendix, Research Inputs. As a result of the threat futures and raw data generated from the workshop along with the post analysis and synthesis by the Threatcasting Lab, three key threat areas emerged regarding the future of weaponized AI: AI Surveillance and Coercion: The New Dogs of War The AI Weapons Factory Careless Destabilization of National Security Additionally, the post analysis identified possible actions that could be taken by academia, non-profits, industry, government, and individuals to mitigate, disrupt, or recover from possible threats: Further Research Technical and Process Tools Regulation and Oversight The following report presents these futures, examining each of