Somali Democratic Republic Ministry of Agriculture Directorate of Planning and-Training /Food Security Project "Maize Supply and Price Situation in Somalia: An Historical Overview zond Analysis of Recent Char.oes by John S. Holtzwan WORKING PAPER No. 5 May 1987. Working Paper Series MAIZE SUPPLY AND PRICE SITUATION IN SOMALIA: AN HISTOR:CAL OVERVIEW A,'D ANALYSIS OF RECEMT CHANGF.51 John S. Holtzman Food Security Project, MOA/MSU 1.0 Introduction Maize is a basic staple in southern Somalia, whose output has expanded luring the past decada. The available official statistics suigest tiat Somali producers have cultivated more land to maizu U'uring the 1980s than during the 1970s. Aggregate moize production has expanded, while sorghum production has stagnated. Maize yields appear to have risen more rapidly than sorghum yields. tuiorts have fluctuated considerably, depending on overall availability of food grains in particular years. What are the factori that have contributed to increased maize output in Somalia- How important have rainfall, market liberalization, and -'eal price trends been in the expansion of taize prouction Pnd stagnation of sorghum prodUction? The objectives of this paper are thrcefold. First, it will present and discuss the av.i lable data on the maize supply and rice situation in Somalia, with special focus on changes in the 1980s (section 2.0). Second, the paper kill examine factors contributing to maize expansion (section 3.0). Last, it will assess in a preliminary way the possibility and opportunity for continued expansion in maip output (section 4.0). 2.0 Mzize Supoly and Price Situation in the 11B0s 2.1 Inconsistent Data: The Food Security Analyst's Dilemma In Somalia, as in many African countries, thi available sources .-f cereali production and impprt data are not always consistent. This is illustrated by the different scurces of oaize production and itport data in Table 1. While the production data are quite consistent, estimated imports during the 1980s, particularly during the 1982-1984 period, seem to conflict the most. Collecting import data ir Sokalia is diffi:ult, as the;e are numerous commercial importers and food aid dcnors. A giod deal ci commercial food import data gOes tndetected and unrecurded (Jaffee, 1985). The Lime-series in Table I illustrate the dilemsa of food security anal.ysts in mny African courtries. When there are discrepancies in data sources, which series does the analyst choose? On what grounds can one justify the choice of one series as opposed to another? What are iome uf the croschecks that can be perfur~ed to g.uge the internal consistency of one source of tice-series data? Although thii section will not answer these questions in a )aneralizable and definitive way, it will examine carefully the 6SDR mai:e and sorghum statistici for discernible trends and intarnal consistency. W'4le the official agricultural statistics of the GSDR and other sourcen of data are opun to question, it shuuld be noted that the Ministry of Agr cuiture (MOA) is trying to improve its estiAation of crop area, production and yield, with avsistance from the EC supported (since January 1986) F3od and Early Warning System (FEWS). The FEWS also negan to gather commercial impopt data froc shipping agencies asid port authorities at the main Somali ports (Mogadishu, Kismivn, Berbera) in ') Thii paper was first published in the Planning Dept./Food Security Project WORKING PAPER series in RIay 1987. 5 January 1986. In addition, the World Food Programme (WFP) has improved collection of import data on cereals and other commodities by systematically contacting all food aid donors. For the purposes of the following analysis, this paper will use the maize and sorghun area cropped, production and (calculated) yield estimates of the MOA, which are presented in Table 2 and Figures 1-3. 2.2 Maize and Sorghum Production Data This sectio, Nill examine trends in maize and sorghum area cropped, production and yields since 1970, using the official GSDR statistics. The irternal consistency of the tiwe-series for each crop will be assessed, and production trenos will be compared, 2.2.1 Maize Area, Production, and Yields Area cropped to maize during the 1970s was remarkably uniform, averaging 149,000 hectares per annum. Total maize production was highest during the 1970s in the 1372-74 pariod, averaging 156,000 metric tons a year, but it dropped off precipitously to 92,000 and 90,000 hectares in the drought years of 1575 and 1976. For the most part, the maize area cropped and production data for the 1970s appear plausible ard consistent. Trends in the estimated maize yields during the 1970s are som.ewhat puzzling. Calculating maize yields from the aggregate area cropped and production figures, it is noteworthy that yields averaged 959 kilograms p'?r hectare during the first five years of the 1970s (19?0-74), and 691 kg./ha. during the latter half of the decade (1975-79). Part of this difference can be explained by the two drought years, which pulled yields down in the 1975 and 1976 to 657 and 600 kq./ha. respectively. Nevertheless, yields remained low (730-735 kg./ha.) in 1977-79. While the GSDR data snow that maize production stagnated during the 1970s, they suggost that maize area cropped, production and yield were significantly higher in the 1981-86 period than during the 1970s. We will e:xclude 1980 from this comparison, when area cropped and prcductio.n were low, since it was a drought year. Average area cropped increased from 149,000 hectares in the 1970s to 207,000 hectares a year from 1981 through 1985, expanding to a record high of 234,000 hectares in 1985. Aggregate maize output expanded from 157,000 metric tons in 1981 to 383,000 M.T. in 1985, a 144% increase in output associated with a 17% expansion in area cultivated. Calculak;ed yields more than doubled from 797 kg./ha. in 1981 to 1637 kg./ha. in 1985. Both production and yields appear to have risen steeply beginning in 1983, as shown in Figures 2 and 3. The expansion in maize area during the 1980s is generally consistent with changes in the macroeconomic and agricultural policy environment in Somalia beginning in the early 1980s, as will be discussed in greater depth in section 3.0. The dramatic increase in yields is less easy to accept and explain. As a crosscheck on yield estimates calculated from aggregate official statistics, we can compare oicrolevel estimates of yield, based on yield plot data and farmer reported estimates. 6 During the past several years the national extension service has been collecting yield plot data from contact farmers in the Lower and Middle Shebelle. Yields for Gu 1986 ranged between 9 and 23 quintals/hectare and averaged 12-15 quintals/ha across scme 20 villages in the Middle Shebelle. Farmer estimates of yield in six villages of the Lower Shebolle, reported by Boateng, David and Mire in the AFMET funded farm wanagement studies, averaged 1613 kilograms/hectare in 1905 and 1467 kg./ha. in 1984 (Boateng, David and Mire, 1986). In 1984 average yield! ranged across the six villages from 992 kg./ha. to 1900 kg.iha. (Boateng, David, Mire, Feb./March 1985). In presenting detailed crop budgets, the extension project researchers use 1200 kg,/ha. as the typical yield on farms cultivating maize in pure stands using traditional methods, 1406 kg./ha. as the typical yield for farms using insecticide but not fertilizer on pure maize stinds, and 2000 kg.!ha. as the typical yield for farms using both fertilizer and insecticide on pure maize stands. Since most farmers in Somalia do not use fertilizer, insecticide and improved production methods, yields are more likely to average in the 800-1200 kg./ha. range than in the 1400-2000 range. Other yield evidence has been reccrded for farmers participating and not participating i.i the FAO Fertili:er Programmme and the AF11ET extension prcect in three villages in the Lower Shebelle, as shown in TablP 3 (see Mohammed ALi Abukar and M. Jain, 1986; Boateng et al., November 1985). Farcaers participating in the programs received improved seed (Somtux variety), fertilizer, insecticide, and extension advice regarding use of these input= and improved management practices, while non-participating farmers received none of these inputs or extension. The yields of the participating far-mers, shown below, averaged 2591-3 !il kq.ha. in the three villages, and ranged between 14"6-4798 kg./ha. 1in contrast, the yields of the non-participating farmers were predictably far lower. Ncn-participants averaged 1407-2009 kg./ha., and their yields ranged from 887 to 2795 kg./ha. Table 3 Maize Yields in Three Villages of the Lower Shebelle, Gu 19d4 (in kg./ha.) Village Participating Farmers Non-Participating Farmers Mean Yield Yield Range Mean Y, el d Yield Range Dar es Salaam 2591 1436-4639 1407 987-2092 Ugunji 3273 1657-4639 1664 929-2912 Sigaale 3511 2350-4798 2009 129b-2795 Source: Boateng, David, Mire, AFMET papers, 1985 and 19 B6. Mohainmed Ali Abukar and M. Jain, Puntland Journal, 1996. Note: The sample size was 10 participating and 10 non-participating farmers in each village. It should be noted that the reported yields for both the participating and non-participating farmers are likely to be greater than yidlds in most maize producing areas of Somalia. The three villages in *hc Lower Shebelle are close to the river and have better access to irrigation, as 7 well as relatively good soils. Furthermore, villages where credit projects and the extension service operate are generally larger and more accessible settlements, so they will have more incentive to produce for the market and better access to inputs available from non-governmental sources.