United Nations Development Programme Government of Republic of Guinea-Bissau Project Document for nationally implemented projects financed by the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) Project title: Strengthen the adaptive capacity and climate resilience of Guinea-Bissau vulnerable coastal communities to climate risks Country: Republic of Implementing Partner: Ministry of Environment and Management Arrangements: National Guinea-Bissau Sustainable Development (MADS) Implementation Modality (NIM) UNDAF/Country Program Outcome: Outcome UNPAF 4) Public institutions, civil society organizations, and the private sector promote the preservation and development of biodiversity, and the prevention and management of disaster risks. UNDP Strategic Plan Output: Signature solution 3: Enhance prevention and recovery for resilient societies UNDP Social and Environmental Screening UNDP Gender Marker: GEN2 Category: (It is designed to contribute significantly to gender equality. The Medium Risk different needs of women/girls and men/boys have been analyzed and integrated well in the activities and outcomes.) Atlas Project ID/Award ID number: 00095375 Atlas Output ID/Project ID number: 00099383 UNDP-GEF PIMS ID number: 4978 GEF ID number: 6988 Planned start date: June 2018 Planned end date: May 2023 LPAC date: Feb 14, 2019 Brief project description: Sea-level rise for Guinea-Bissau (in comparison of 1995 level) is projected to reach 0.13m, 0.35m, 0.72m and 1.22m for the years 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100, respectively. With a large and growing population in the coastal zone, coupled with a low adaptive capacity due to the national economy’s low-income condition, Guinea-Bissau appears to be highly vulnerable to sea-level rise. Without adaptation, the physical, human and financial impacts will be significant. With a sea-level rise of 0.13m expected by 2025, some 77,800 people can be affected annually by flooding. By 2050, the sea-level would reach 0.35m, affecting as many as 179,800 persons per year. The total cost of sea-level rises for Guinea-Bissau, combining costs of forced migration, land loss, salinization, sea floods and river floods, will be around $8.0 million per year in 2025. These costs will increase to 29.9 million per year for 2050 and they are estimated at $361.8 million per year in 2100. Based on vetted climate change scenarios for the West Africa sub-region, the 2006 NAPA assessed the specific effects of climate changes on the coastal zone. They include: (i) sea level rise, as the most prominent effect; (ii) irregular rainfall patterns and shorter rainy season, which is likely to affect the agricultural sector; (iii) shorter cool season, which could negatively impact coastal and marine ecology; and (iv) more frequent occurrence of extreme weather, including longer drought spells, heat waves and not least also storms and storm surges, all of which are disaster events likely to increase the severity and frequency. As a result, climate change will cause tangible impacts and increased hazard risks in terms of: (i) coastal erosion; (ii) coastal 1 flooding; (iii) inland flooding; (iv) salt water intrusion, affecting both surface and groundwater, and by extension the low- lying paddy rice fields. A few hundred thousand households within the coastal area depend on the productivity of paddies for a living. Also, under conditions of unusually high temperatures and low humidity, (v) wildfires / forest fires may become more frequent, even though they are a rare phenomenon in the coastal zone. Yet, coastal forests, cashew orchards and possibly also dwellings may be affected with sizable economic and possibly human loss. In addition, climate change is also predicted to have (iv) a gradual, but adverse effect on fisheries in Guinea-Bissau. Rising sea temperatures and changes in the oceans’ other dynamics, such as acidification and loss of nursery areas, are predicted to reduce fish populations. In places with such rich fisheries such as Guinea-Bissau, coral bleaching and mangroves degradation are known to destroy fish spawning grounds, decreasing thereby the availability of mature fish for capture. This will limit the livelihood options of artisanal fisher-men and -women. All of these climate-driven phenomena undermine food security for coastal populations, for whom seafood and local rice are the main sources of protein and grain, respectively. In addition, fisheries and cashew exports play a vital role for Guinea-Bissau’s government, with fees for fishing licenses, currently providing respectively 35% and 20% of government revenue. This Project will: • Support the establishment of an enabling political, institutional and administrative environment for advancing the management of the climate risk in the coastal zone; • Finance additional investments in hard and soft coastal protection measures to help maintain critical economic and natural infrastructure in the face of sea level rise and coastal degradation. Those will include interventions in the agricultural and fisheries sectors, as well as relating to nature protection and restoration, for which the project will build on achievements from baseline interventions and work in close collaboration with co-financed ones; and • Contribute to strengthening the climatic resilience by having livelihood options for the coastal communities with the special emphasis to most vulnerable groups such as women and youth. GEF, LDCF USD 12,000,000 UNDP TRAC USD 500,000 (1) Total Budget administered by UNDP USD 12,500,000 PARALLEL CO-FINANCING: Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development (MADS) [in-kind, not monetized] Ministry of Agriculture, Forests and Livestock, in connection with Project 'Global USD 51,729,172 Alliance for Resilience (AGIR) - Sahel and West Ministry of Agriculture, Forests and Livestock, in connection with AfDB's Rice USD 6,400,000 Value Chains Project (2) Total co-financing USD 58,129,172 (3) Grand-Total Project Financing (1) + (2) USD 70,629,172 SIGNATURES Signature: Agreed by Government Date: Signature: Agreed by Implementing Partner Date: – MADS Signature: Agreed by UNDP Date: 2 I. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. TABLE OF CONTENTS ...................................................................................................................... 3 II. DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGE ............................................................................................................. 7 Context and the Core Problem ............................................................................................................................................. 7 The Climate Problem ......................................................................................................................................................... 9 Fit to National Policies, NAPA Priorities and SDGs .......................................................................................................... 11 Barrier 1) Linked to coastal governance .......................................................................................................................... 13 Barrier 2) Linked to coastal protection ............................................................................................................................ 15 Barrier 3) Linked to coastal livelihoods ........................................................................................................................... 18 Theory of Change (ToC) ...................................................................................................................................................... 20 III. STRATEGY ................................................................................................................................. 22 General Strategy ................................................................................................................................................................. 22 Project Sites ........................................................................................................................................................................ 23 IV. RESULTS AND PARTNERSHIPS ......................................................................................................... 28 Expected Results ................................................................................................................................................................ 28 Objective and Components ............................................................................................................................................. 28 Component 1) Policy and institutional development for climate risk management in coastal zones ............................ 29 Component 2) Coastal protection investments .............................................................................................................. 33 Component 3) Diffusion of technologies to strengthen coastal communities’ climate resilience .................................. 38 Component 4) Monitoring and evaluation ...................................................................................................................... 42 The Project’s Additional Cost Reasoning ......................................................................................................................... 42 Partnerships ....................................................................................................................................................................... 45 Baseline Projects ............................................................................................................................................................