Portugal Presidency of the Council of the EU January - June 2021 DeHavilland EU Portuguese Presidency Table of Contents Introduction 1 The Presidency 3 The Politics 6 The Interviews 11 The Policy 18 The People 35 The Trio 55 DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2020 www.dehavilland.co.uk DeHavillandIntroduction EU Portuguese Presidency Introduction On 1 January 2021, Portugal took over the Presidency of the Council of the EU from Germany, and will preside over the second six months of the trio’s 18-month strategic agenda ahead of the Slovenian Government’s Presidency in July 2021. Holding the Presidency grants Portugal unique influence, largely through its chairing of the meetings of the Council. They will take the lead in mediating between the Council and Parliament as the European Union looks to implement the Multiannual Financial Framework and the EU Recovery Fund, its European Green Deal, and continue its digital agenda. This briefing will cover the Trio priorities, the major players within the presidency and the influence they are likely to pursue in their position as Chairs. This briefing will also provide in-depth policy analysis of the Portuguese Presidency’s own priorities. Key Documents • Presidency Programme • The Presidency Calendar • The Trio Programme • Strategic Agenda 2019- 2024 1 DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2020 www.dehavilland.co.uk The Presidency Understand what it means and what the priorities are DeHavilland EU Portuguese Presidency What is the presidency? The Council of the EU, alongside the European Parliament, is the main decision making body of the EU. Each member state holds the Presidency of the Council on a six month rotation, and acts in trios of countries, each with a shared programme. The EU country which holds the Presidency is entrusted with progressing EU legislation and ensuring that the requirements for legislative procedures are met, as well as chairing meetings of the Council of the EU. The Council meets in ten different meetings, known as ‘configurations’, each dealing with different policy issues. Under the Portuguese Presidency, the Environment Council meetings, for example, will be attended by environment ministers from each of the member states, and will be chaired by Portugal’s Environment Minister. The exception is the Foreign Affairs Council which has a permanent chairperson, usually the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. As chairs, Portugal’s national ministers will act as mediators, and will therefore be able to influence and foster compromises between member states. The Presidency arbitrates between member states and aims to reach agreements on legislative texts via ‘trilogues’, informal negotiation meetings and Conciliation Committee meetings. When agreement is reached, the Presidency represents the Council at ‘trilogue’ meetings with the Parliament and Commission. These informal agreements, which can often represent a breakthrough for a legislative proposal, are attributed to the negotiating skills of the Presidency, and as such can often be used to measure a country’s success in the role. The country holding the Presidency must act in a politically neutral way, and cannot be perceived to be pushing their own agenda. The Trio of countries who hold the Presidency over the 18-month period must agree to and follow overarching aims, which should be completed by the time the third and final country ends its rotation. During its Presidency, Portugal will be dealing with many key policy issues, agreements and shifting priorities in the wake of the coronavirus crisis. Trio strategic agenda • Protecting citizens and freedoms • Developing our economic base • Building a climate neutral, green, fair and social Europe 3 DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2020 www.dehavilland.co.uk DeHavilland EU Portuguese Presidency What are the priorities? Whilst the main priorities of the Trio have remained the same, following a meeting which took place during the second half of the German Presidency, the three countries in the trio stated that “dealing with the pandemic and its social and economic consequences” has become their central goal. In order to achieve this, two of the main goals of the trio are to effectively manage healthcare systems and pass the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). With the MFF being agreed in December, the focus of Portugal will shift to ensuring that the EU undergoes a strong economic and social recovery. Portugal has stated that its main mission includes “reinforcing Europe’s resilience and confidence in the European social model, promoting a European Union that is innovative and looks to the future, based on common values of solidarity, convergence and cohesion.” To help Portugal achieve its mission goals it has outlined five priorities that it believes will help tackle the overall goals of the trio. The five priorities of the Portuguese Presidency are: Resilient Europe, Social Europe, Green Europe, Digital Europe and Global Europe. The social agenda is set to be the main priority out of these five. This is exemplified by the Social summit which will be held in Porto on 7-8 May. On top of this, whilst the other priorities are still key, the EU is expected to make huge foriegn policy moves under the Global Europe priority. The bloc is set for major summits with Africa and the US and is also looking to build on its virtual summit with China that took place in September. It is also worth noting that the Presidency will also focus on relations with India, a key strategic ally of Portugal. Currently, 3 Portuguese Government Ministers have familial links with Indian. One issue that Portugal will have to tackle is migration. In September, the EU announced its proposal for an updated Migration Pact. However, currently member states have a wide difference of opinion on migration. This means that the EU has struggled to make any progress and there is currently no legal mechanism that will come into play if the pact is passed as it currently sits. Reform on migration has also been pushed by French President Emmanuel Macron, who has recently criticised the freedom of movement provided by the Schengen agreement, following multiple terrorist attacks that took place in Europe. The priorities: • Resilient Europe • Green Europe • Digital Europe • Social Europe • Global Europe 4 DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2020 www.dehavilland.co.uk The Politics Placing the EU’s challenges in the Portuguese political context DeHavilland EU Portuguese Presidency National politics From January 2021, Portugal will hold the Presidency for its fourth time and its first since 2007. Taking over during a global pandemic will make it challenging, but since 2007 the country has lived through a global financial crisis, a eurozone debt crisis, received a €78bn bailout from the IMF in 2011, and implemented unpopular austerity policies in the proceeding years. Despite these events, Portuguese politics has been relatively stable over the past five years compared to many of its European neighbours. The Socialist Party, led by Prime Minister Antonio Costa, is currently in office after securing 36% of the vote in the 2019 election. The party has been in power since 2015 as a minority government, after it was appointed following the fall of the PSD Government just a month after its election victory. The national Presidency is held by centre-right Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, previously of the Social Democratic Party, who assumed office in 2016 as an independent, and is supported by a centre-right coalition of the Social Democratic Party, CDS - People’s Party and the People’s Monarchist Party. While the country is currently governed by a centre-right President and left-wing Government, the relationship has been viewed as one of the smoothest in recent times. There have been notable disagreements (the Tancos scandal and the appointment of Caixa Geral de Depósitos), but overall, the relationship has been one of stability. The Portuguese Council Presidency will be an interesting one because of its timing, with the 2021 Presidential elections taking place during its first month in January. Perhaps this event would seem more significant had the relationship between Mr de Sousa and Costa’s Government not been so cordial. With Mr Costa unwilling to back a candidate from his own party and polling suggesting another landslide victory for Mr de Sousa, it is unlikely to change the flow and mechanisms of Government. Portugal is largely no different to Germany in the main challenges it has faced over the past year. COVID-19 and the economic fallout from it have been the overwhelming themes dominating the last twelve months and are sure to continue into the Portuguese Presidency. Like many countries, Portugal announced its first COVID-19 restrictions in March, with its state of emergency lasting until 3 May, when it was replaced by a “state of calamity”. It is regarded as having been a quick actor on the issue, with its state of emergency coming just two days after its first confirmed death. Following the lifting of certain restrictions in May, the country was also an early adopter of making face masks compulsory on public transport and in enclosed public spaces. Its “state of calamity” was lifted in June following wide decreases in infections, although rising infections in Lisbon saw new restrictions re-imposed in nineteen of its parishes. The wider “state of calamity” was reinstated in October, with the country also mirroring a wider European trend of imposing tougher restrictions in November and December in the build up to Christmas. In terms of cases and deaths, Portugal has fared much better than many of its European neighbours, an 6 DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2020 www.dehavilland.co.uk DeHavilland EU Portuguese Presidency impressive feat given it has the fewest critical care beds in the EU and the third-highest percentage of people over 65 after Japan and Italy.