DANGEROUS WEAPONS: ARMS TRANSFER, INTERSTATE CONFLICT, AND DEPENDENCE _______________________________________ A Dissertation presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School at the University of Missouri-Columbia _______________________________________________________ In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy _____________________________________________________ by Saumil P. Dharia Dr. Stephen L. Quackenbush, Dissertation Supervisor December 2019 © Copyright by Saumil P. Dharia 2019 All Rights Reserved The undersigned, appointed by the dean of the Graduate School, have examined the dissertation entitled DANGEROUS WEAPONS: ARMS TRANSFERS, INTERSTATE CONFLICT, AND DEPENDENCE presented by Saumil P. Dharia a candidate for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and hereby certify that, in their opinion, it is worthy of acceptance. ________________________________________________ Professor Stephen L. Quackenbush ___________________________________________________ Professor Laron K. Williams ___________________________________________________ Professor A. Cooper Drury __________________________________________________ Professor Saku Aura ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are many people that I would like to thank in my journey. First and foremost, this dissertation would not be complete without the guidance, advice, and above all the patience of my committee members. I want to thank Stephen Quackenbush for teaching me the foundational concepts of international relations theory, for guiding me through the dissertation, for reading multiple drafts, and for providing constructive comments and encouragement throughout the process. I want to thank Cooper Drury for teaching me about international relations and great career advice. I want to thank Laron Williams for teaching me about methodology and playing an important role in my professional development. I also want to thank Saku Aura was agreeing to be on the committee on such short notice and providing an invaluable outside perspective. I want to thank my friends and colleagues at Mizzou David Winjum, Rachel Dicke, Brandon Park, Tom Guarrieri, Laila Farooq, Murat Yildirim, Bimal Adhikari, Rafi, Joseph Strnad who made it possible to navigate graduate school and made my time at Mizzou enjoyable. I also want to thank Parth Bhatt, Sanjay Tejani, Jitendra Motwani, Kevin Dharia, Rishab Bafna, Harsh Minawala, Kamal Samani, Ankit Kothari, Keeth Jain, and Andrew Carter. I also want to thank my family who have stood by me all throughout my educational career. I would not be where I am without the support and love of my parents Jita and Paresh Dharia and my sister Shivani Dharia. I want to also thank Aeimit and Leah Lakdawala for blazing the trail for me and providing some of the best advice and guidance of my life. ii Finally, any acknowledgement would be incomplete without mentioning the indispensable academic and emotional contribution of my loving wife Stella Wancke. Stella has pushed me to meet deadlines, vigorously debated theory with me, and proofread my drafts all the while continuing to shine in her own career. I am deeply grateful for her sacrifice and love. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................ ii LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ vii LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... viii ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... ix CHAPTERS 1. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................1 1.1 PREVIOUS STUDIES ON ARMS TRANSFERS ...............................................4 1.2 OUTLINE OF RESEARCH ..................................................................................6 1.3 METHOD ..............................................................................................................8 2. ARMS ACQUISITIONS: DETERMINANTS AND SUCCESS .............................9 2.1 LITERATURE ON ACQUIRING MILITARY CAPABILITIES ........................9 2.2 DEFENSE PRODUCTION AS A COMPONENT OF MILITARY CAPABILITIES ..................................................................................................16 2.3 CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................33 3. ARMS IMPORTS, ALLIANCES AND INTERSTATE CONFLICT ...................34 3.1 INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................34 3.2 EXTANT LITERATURE ON ARMS TRANSFER AND CONFLICT .............34 3.3 ARMS IMPORTS AND INTERSTATE CONFLICT ........................................36 3.4 ARMS, ALLIANCES, AND INTERSTATE CONFLICT: LITERATURE REVIEW ..............................................................................................................42 3.5 EFFECT OF ALLIANCES ON CONFLICT INITIATION ...............................45 3.6 RESEARCH DESIGN .........................................................................................47 3.7 RESULTS ............................................................................................................53 3.8 DISCUSSION ......................................................................................................59 iv 4. DEFENSE ACQUISITION AND ARMS TRANSFER DEPENDENCE: THE INDIAN EXPERIENCE .........................................................................................61 4.1 INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................61 4.2 CASE SELECTION AND RESEARCH METHOD ..........................................62 4.3 THE CASE OF INDIA: INTRODUCTION .......................................................63 4.4 INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY: 1947-1991 ..........................................................63 4.5 INDIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND DEFENSE ACQUISITION: 1947-1971 ............................................................................................................68 4.6 INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY: 1971-1990 ..........................................................72 4.7 INDIAN DEFENSE ACQUISITION: 1971-1990 ..............................................74 4.8 INDIA’S POST-COLD WAR FOREIGN POLICY: 1991-PRESENT ..............79 4.9 INDIA’S POST-COLD WAR DEFENSE ACQUISITION: 1991-PRESENT ...81 4.10 ANALYSIS OF THE INDIAN CASE ..............................................................88 4.11 ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS ................................................................89 5. DEFENSE ACQUISITION AND ARMS TRANSFER DEPENDENCE: THE CHINESE EXPERIENCE ......................................................................................90 5.1 THE CASE OF CHINA: INTRODUCTION ......................................................90 5.2 CHINESE FOREIGN POLICY: 1949-1972 .......................................................91 5.3 CHINESE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND DEFENSE ACQUISITION: 1949-1972 ............................................................................................................93 5.4 CHINESE FOREIGN POLICY IN THE REFORM ERA: 1979-1991 ...............99 5.5 CHINESE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND DEFENSE ACQUISITION IN THE REFORM ERA: 1979-1991 ................................................................101 5.6 CHINESE FOREIGN POLICY IN THE POST-COLD WAR ERA: 1991- PRESENT ..........................................................................................................103 5.7 CHINESE MILITARY MODERNIZATION AND DEFENSE ACQUISITION IN THE POST-COLD WAR ERA: 1991-PRESENT .......................................107 v 5.8 ANALYSIS OF THE CHINESE CASE ...........................................................112 5.9 DISCUSSION ....................................................................................................113 6. CONCLUSION .....................................................................................................116 6.1 RESEARCH QUESTIONS REVISITED .........................................................116 6.2 UNDERLYING MOTIVATION ......................................................................116 6.3 FINDINGS ........................................................................................................117 6.4 FUTURE RESEARCH ......................................................................................120 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................122 VITA ................................................................................................................................150 vi LIST OF TABLES TABLE PAGE Table 3.1: The Effects of Arms Imports on the Probability of Militarized Dispute Initiation, 1973-1999..........................................................................................................53 Table 3.2: The Effects of Arms Imports on the Probability of Militarized Dispute Initiation, 1973-1999 (Robustness Check) ........................................................................54 Table 3.3: Change in the Predicted Probability of Conflict Initiation ...............................55 Table 3.4: The Effects of Arms Imports and Alliances on the Probability of Militarized Dispute Initiation, 1973-1999 ............................................................................................56