Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market 2016 Final Report March 2017 European Commission Annual Analyses related to the EU Air Transport Market 2016 328131 ITD ITA 1 F Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market 2013 Final Report March 2015 Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market 2013 MarchFinal Report 201 7 European Commission European Commission Disclaimer and copyright: This report has been carried out for the Directorate General for Mobility and Transport in the European Commission and expresses the opinion of the organisation undertaking the contract MOVE/E1/5-2010/SI2.579402. These views have not been adopted or in any way approved by the European Commission and should not be relied upon as a statement of the European Commission's or the Mobility and Transport DG's views. The European Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the information given in the report, nor does it accept responsibility for any use made thereof. 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It should not be relied upon by any other party or for any other purpose, or containing any error or omission used for any other purpose. which is due to an error or omission in data supplied to us by other parties. 3 376608/ITD/Aviation/1/F March 2017 Annual Analysis related to the EU Air Transport Market 2016 Content Chapter Title Page Executive Summary 7 1. Air Traffic Trends 21 1.1. Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 21 1.2. Air Traffic Drivers __________________________________________________________________ 22 1.3. Passenger Traffic Trends ____________________________________________________________ 32 1.4. Air Cargo Traffic ___________________________________________________________________ 72 1.5. Business Aviation Traffic _____________________________________________________________ 77 2. Airlines 81 2.1. Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 81 2.2. Global Trends _____________________________________________________________________ 81 2.3. Airline Financial Report ______________________________________________________________ 86 2.4. Partnerships, Market Entrances and Exits _______________________________________________ 89 2.5. Airline Performance by Region ________________________________________________________ 90 3. Airport Business & Investments 97 3.1. Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 97 3.2. Airport Financial Performance ________________________________________________________ 98 3.3. Airport Infrastructure – Emerging Markets ______________________________________________ 102 3.4. Financing and Public Private Partnerships ______________________________________________ 103 3.5. Customer Service Awards __________________________________________________________ 104 4. Aircraft Manufacturers & MRO 107 4.1. Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 107 4.2. Global Trends ____________________________________________________________________ 107 4.3. Aviation, a Global Industry __________________________________________________________ 110 4.4. Global Fleet Trends in 2015 _________________________________________________________ 111 4.5. Air Transport Industry Performance by Geographical Region ________________________________ 118 5. Air Traffic Management 125 5.1. Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 125 5.2. Social/Industrial Context ____________________________________________________________ 125 5.3. Global Issues - Flight Tracking _______________________________________________________ 128 5.4. Key ATM Technology Enablers ______________________________________________________ 129 5.5. Strategy/Technology Programmes ____________________________________________________ 133 5.6. Airports _________________________________________________________________________ 136 5.7. Unmanned / Remotely Piloted Aerial Systems UAS/RPAS/Drones ___________________________ 139 5.8. Aireon __________________________________________________________________________ 142 5.9. Demand/Capacity/Performance ______________________________________________________ 144 6. Market & Competition Issues 148 6.1. Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 148 6.2. EU External Aviation Policy _________________________________________________________ 148 6.3. EU Competition Issues _____________________________________________________________ 153 6.4. International Developments _________________________________________________________ 171 5 376608/ITD/Aviation/1/F March 2017 Annual Analysis related to the EU Air Transport Market 2016 7. Environment & Sustainable Development 175 7.1. Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 175 7.2. Institutions, Initiatives and Programs __________________________________________________ 175 7.3. Aviation Emissions ________________________________________________________________ 179 7.4. Climate Change (Adaptation and Resilience) ____________________________________________ 182 7.5. Aircraft Noise ____________________________________________________________________ 184 7.6. Airports _________________________________________________________________________ 185 7.7. Alternative Fuels __________________________________________________________________ 188 8. Safety & Security 189 8.1. Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 189 8.2. Safety __________________________________________________________________________ 189 8.3. Security _________________________________________________________________________ 208 9. Consumer Issues 212 9.1. Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 212 9.2. Key Legislation and Recent Developments in the European Union ___________________________ 212 9.3. Passenger Complaints across EU & non-EU Countries ____________________________________ 215 9.4. International Punctuality Research ____________________________________________________ 230 Glossary 238 6 376608/ITD/Aviation/1/F March 2017 Annual Analysis related to the EU Air Transport Market 2016 Executive Summary Foreword The European Commission has concluded annual reports since 1998 as part of its function as an observatory of the European Air Transport Industry. The reports have highlighted developments on legislative and regulatory measures and covered analysis of capacity, traffic and financial performance of airlines and airports, as well as topics such as air traffic control, environment, consumer issues and aircraft manufacturing. This 2016 report covers latest developments in the air transport industry during 2015 and the first half of 2016. It is structured in 9 chapters covering: • Air Traffic Trends • Airlines • Airports • Aircraft Manufacturing and MRO • Air Traffic Management • Market and Competition Issues • Environment and Sustainable Development • Aviation Safety and Security • Consumer Issues In addition to the above chapters, the report is also accompanied by the Statistical Annex. This Annex provides in tabulated format the key data-sets analysed to support various topics reflected in this report. This Executive Summary provides highlights of the main report. The key highlights are: • For 2016, global traffic was expected to grow by 6.3% over 2015, with annual passengers surpassing 3.7 billion. This growth is a slowdown from the 7.1 per cent achieved in 2015 which was the highest annual growth rate since 2010, the year following the global recession of 2008-09. This growth is against a background of global GDP growth in 2015 of around 2.4%. • Lower air fares (on average, 5% lower in 2015 vs 2014), driven by continuously low fuel jet prices, boosted passenger traffic growth in 2015. • Air traffic is projected to grow in the long-term, driven by global GDP growth. Annual Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs) are forecast to grow over the period 2016-2035 at a rate of 4.5% pa (Airbus) and 4.8% pa (Boeing). • The fastest growth rates are anticipated in the developing Asian, Middle Eastern, Latin American and African markets. In the more mature markets, North American is expected to grow at 2.9% pa (Airbus) to 3.1%pa (Boeing), and European is expected to grow at an average rate of 3.7% pa (both Airbus and Boeing). • Technology advances over the last six years have changed the face of aviation, with the introduction of more point-to-point flying using advanced aircraft such as the Airbus A350 and the Boeing B787 families of efficient and environmentally-friendly twin-engine