Appendix TA - O TECHNICAL NOTE 3 (TN3) – MODE SHARE PUBLIC THE LONDON RESORT WSP Project No.: 70063529 | Our Ref No.: 70063529 December 2020 London Resort Company Holdings Ltd London Resort Company Holdings Ltd THE LONDON RESORT Technical Note 3: Mode Share 70063529 NOVEMBER 2020 CONFIDENTIAL London Resort Company Holdings Ltd THE LONDON RESORT Technical Note 3: Mode Share TYPE OF DOCUMENT (VERSION) CONFIDENTIAL PROJECT NO. 70063529 OUR REF. NO. 70063529 DATE: NOVEMBER 2020 WSP Mountbatten House Basing View Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 4HJ Phone: +44 1256 318 800 Fax: +44 1256 318 700 WSP.com CONFIDENTIAL QUALITY CONTROL Issue/revision First issue Revision 1 Revision 2 Revision 3 Updates following Remarks Confidential Draft consultee response Date June 2020 November 2020 Prepared by P Moss P Moss / A Smith Signature Checked by A Smith A Smith Signature D Dixon / R D Dixon / R Authorised by Hutchings Hutchings Signature Project 70063529 70063529 number Report number \\Uk.Wspgroup.Com\Central Data\Projects\700635xx\70063529 - London Paramount Resort\03 WIP\TP File reference Transport Planning\05 Reports\TECHNICAL NOTES\TN3_Modeshare\20201126_LR_TN3_Mode Share_Update V1.3.Docx THE LONDON RESORT CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70063529 | Our Ref No.: 70063529 November 2020 London Resort Company Holdings Ltd CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 UPDATES FOLLOWING CONSULTATION 1 THE LONDON RESORT 2 REVIEW OF EXISTING DATA SOURCES 2 FORECAST VISITOR MODE SHARE AND TRAVEL DEMAND 3 REVIEW OF EXISTING DATA SOURCES – STAFF TRAVEL 3 1 INTRODUCTION 4 1.1 INTRODUCTION 4 1.2 HISTORY AND ASSESSMENT OF THE LONDON RESORT 4 1.3 OTHER TECHNICAL DOCUMENTS 5 1.4 UPDATES FOLLOWING CONSULTEE RESPONSES 6 1.5 REPORT STRUCTURE 8 2 THE LONDON RESORT PROPOSALS 9 2.1 THE LONDON RESORT SITE SELECTION 9 2.2 DEVELOPMENT PROPOSALS 9 2.3 THE LONDON RESORT – DAY TYPES AND ASSESSMENT YEARS 11 2.4 VISITOR AND STAFF INFORMATION 13 2.5 FACTORS INFLUENCING TRAVEL CHOICE AT THE LONDON RESORT 14 2.6 ON-SITE HOTEL TRIPS – ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES 15 2.7 MODES OF TRAVEL AVAILABLE FOR VISITORS 16 3 ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY AND ACCOUNTING FOR DESIGN INFLUENCING MODE CHOICE 18 3.1 HOW PEOPLE MAY TRAVEL 18 THE LONDON RESORT CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70063529 | Our Ref No.: 70063529 November 2020 London Resort Company Holdings Ltd 3.2 ASSESSING WORST CASE ROAD DEMAND VS DAY TO DAY OPERATION 19 3.3 CONSTRAINING PRIVATE VEHICLE USE BY DESIGN 20 3.4 SCENARIO 1 - ASSESSING WORST CASE ROAD CAPACITY FOR THE TRANSPORT ASSESSMENT 21 3.5 SCENARIO 2 - ASSESSING WORST CASE – OTHER MODES FOCUSED 25 4 VISITOR TRAVEL BACKGROUND INFORMATION & DATA SOURCES 27 4.1 INTRODUCTION 27 4.2 ENTERTAINMENT RESORTS IN THE UK, EUROPE AND ROW 27 4.3 MAJOR SITES / ATTRACTIONS IN THE UK 30 4.4 EXISTING RESORTS AND ATTRACTIONS REVIEWED 30 4.5 SITE SELECTION PROCESS & FINAL SITE SELECTION 32 4.6 COMPARISON OF VISITOR DATA AND EXPECTED VISITOR PROFILE 35 4.7 EXISTING RESORTS AND ATTRACTIONS REVIEWED - STAFF 36 5 LONDON MODE SHARES 38 5.1 INTRODUCTION 38 5.2 LONDON MODE SHARES REVIEW 38 5.3 REVIEW OF LONDON VISITOR DATA 39 5.4 INNER / OUTER LONDON 44 5.5 ACCOUNTING FOR DROP OFF / TAXI 48 5.6 LONDON MODE SHARES – SUMMARY 49 5.7 FINAL PRIVATE VEHICLE LONDON MODE SHARE 50 6 SCENARIO 1 - ASSESSING WORST CASE VEHICLE DEMAND 52 6.1 INTRODUCTION 52 6.2 2025 ASSESSMENT YEAR 53 6.3 2029 ASSESSMENT YEAR 56 6.4 2038 ASSESSMENT YEAR 59 6.5 VISITOR SUMMARY 61 6.6 STAFF PRIVATE VEHICLE MODE SHARE 62 THE LONDON RESORT CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70063529 | Our Ref No.: 70063529 November 2020 London Resort Company Holdings Ltd 7 SCENARIO 2 - OTHER MODE SHARE FOCUSED 64 7.1 INTRODUCTION 64 7.2 ASSESSMENT APPROACH 64 7.3 VARIABLE MODE SPLITS 65 7.4 STAFF TRAVEL BY OTHER MODES 67 8 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 69 8.1 SUMMARY 69 8.2 CONCLUSIONS 69 9 BIBLIOGRAPHY / REFERENCES 70 TABLES Table 1-1 – Comments and clarifications from Consultees (Summary) 6 Table 2-1 – Total Daily Attendance by Day type and assessment year 13 Table 3-1 – The London Resort – Visitor parking numbers by year of assessment 20 Table 3-2 – The London Resort – London / Non London visitor split (indicative) 23 Table 4-1: Attendance at European Theme Parks 2013-2018 29 Table 4-2: Sites and Attractions reviewed as part of TN3 31 Table 4-3: Final Site Selection Summary Table 34 Table 4-4: Existing Attractions Mode Share Summary Table 35 Table 4-5: Sites and Attractions reviewed as part of TN1 – Staff Travel 36 Table 4-6: Mode Share Summary Table (Staff) 37 Table 5-1: Method of Journey to Work (Census 2011) 39 Table 5-2: London 2015 Tourism Day Visits: Main Mode of transport on Tourism Day Visits 41 Table 5-3 – 2019 Great Britain Day Visits (London) – All Tourism day and All 3+hour leisure trips 42 Table 5-4 – 2019 GB Day Visit Data - Summarised 43 Table 5-5: International Visits - Propensity to use mode of transport (%) 44 THE LONDON RESORT CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70063529 | Our Ref No.: 70063529 November 2020 London Resort Company Holdings Ltd Table 5-6: London Travel Demand survey – Taxi, Car and Car Passenger (%) 45 Table 5-7: Inner and Outer London proportion splits 45 Table 5-8: Inner and Outer London vehicle mode share (%) 46 Table 5-9: Inner and Outer London Visitors (Domestic and International) 46 Table 5-10: Inner and Outer London vehicle mode share – Including International Visitors 47 Table 5-11: Inner and Outer London vehicle mode share – including International Visitors, taxi and Uber use 47 Table 5-12: Resulting Inner and Outer London vehicle mode share 48 Table 5-13: Drop Off/ Taxi Mode Share 48 Table 5-6: London Mode Share Summary Table (Visitor) 49 Table 5-15: Private Vehicle and Taxi / Drop Off - London Mode Share used in the analysis 50 Table 6-1: 2025 – Average day mode shares – London and non-London 53 Table 6-2: 2025 – Average day mode shares – Total Site 53 Table 6-3: 2025 – 85th Percentile day mode shares – London and non-London 54 Table 6-4: 2025 – 85th Percentile day mode shares – Total Site 54 Table 6-5: 2025 – Peak day mode shares – London and Non-London 55 Table 6-6: 2025 – Peak day mode shares – Total Site 55 Table 6-7: 2029 – Average day mode shares – London and non-London 56 Table 6-8: 2029 – Average day mode shares – Total Site 56 Table 6-9: 2029 – 85th Percentile day mode shares – London and Non-London 57 Table 6-10: 2029 – 85th Percentile day mode shares – Total Site 57 Table 6-11: 2029 – Peak day mode shares – London and Non-London 58 Table 6-12: 2029 – Peak day mode shares – Total Site 58 Table 6-13: 2038 – Average day mode shares – London and non-London 59 Table 6-14: 2038 – Average day mode shares – Total Site 59 Table 6-15: 2038 – 85th Percentile day mode shares – London and Non-London 60 Table 6-16: 2038 – 85th Percentile day mode shares – Total Site 60 Table 6-17: 2038 – Peak day mode shares – London and Non-London 61 Table 6-18: 2038 – Peak day mode shares – Total Site 61 Table 6-19 Staff Modal Share for Private vehicle 62 THE LONDON RESORT CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70063529 | Our Ref No.: 70063529 November 2020 London Resort Company Holdings Ltd Table 7-1: Public Transport mode ranges 66 Table 7-2 – Bluewater Staff Mode Share 67 Table 7-3 – Proposed London Resort Staff mode share (ranges) 68 FIGURES Figure 3-1: Mode Share Assessment Updates 8 Figure 3-1 – Assessment Flow Diagrams 22 Figure 3-2 - Private Vehicle - Assessment Approach (Scenario 1) 24 Figure 3-3 - Private Vehicle - Hotel Assessment Approach (Scenario 1) 24 Figure 3-4 - Coach - Assessment Approach (Scenario 1) 25 Figure 3-5 - Other modes - Assessment Approach (Scenario 1) 25 Figure 4-1 - Top 20 Resorts in Europe (Aecom / TEA 2018) 28 Figure 5-1: London Mode share region 38 Figure 5-2: Main Mode of Transport on Tourism Day Visits by Region 40 Figure 5-3 - Great Britain Day Visits - Tourism Day Visits (2015) 41 Figure 7-1 – Assessment Flow Diagrams – Scenario 2 - example 65 APPENDICES BACKGROUND DATA AND REVIEW OF EXISTING SITE INFORMATION CALCULATION OF 2025, 2029 AND 2038 MODE SHARES THE LONDON RESORT CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70063529 | Our Ref No.: 70063529 November 2020 London Resort Company Holdings Ltd EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This Technical Note (TN) forms part of a suite of documents intended to inform and support a Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project (NSIP) application for a world class entertainment resort in Swanscombe, Kent. This TN, forms part of the overall trip generation proposals and should be read alongside Technical Note 1 (Trip Generation) and Technical Note 2 (Trip Distribution) and will inform the Transport Assessment and Environmental Assessments for the Development Consent Order application later in 2020. This TN in particular has been prepared to set out in detail to the relevant stakeholders, the anticipated mode shares associated with visitors to The London Resort, and the likely transport modes adopted by staff. To fully assess the impacts of The London Resort it is important that feedback is received from key stakeholders on the trip generation and modal share that forms a key part of the forecasting travel demand from the site. In reality, The London Resort will experience varying mode shares throughout its operation. As such, fixing a mode share becomes complicated as many other variables influence travel choice. One of those variables is the design and availability of parking at the site itself.