Technology & Technical Issues in Renewable Project Development Bruce Bailey, President AWS Truewind, LLC 255 Fuller Road Albany, NY 12203 [email protected] 1 Who is AWS Truewind z Industry Leader & Consultant for 5,000+ MW z Wind Energy Assessment, Engineering, Due Diligence, Forecasting/Scheduling • Experience in 40+ Countries • Established in 1983; 40 Employees 2 Technology & Technical Issues z Technology & Cost Trends z Defining Resources z Siting Tools z Project Development Steps z Challenges & Uncertainties z Conclusions 3 Annual Average Growth of Energy Technologies in the ‘90s 30 Wind 25 Solar PV 25.7* Geothermal 20 Nat. Gas 15 Hydro 16.8 Oil 10 Coal 3.0 5 2.1 Nuclear 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.6 Source: REPP, 0 Worldwatch 4 Costs of Energy from Different Energy Technologies 25 20 RenewableRenewable Options:Options: Conventional Options: 15 Costs don’t include externalities ¢10 kWh per 5 0 WindWind SmallSmall FuelFuel BioBio SolarSolar SolarSolar CoalCoal GTGT CCCC SCSC NuclearNuclear HydroHydro CellCell MassMass ThermalThermal PVPV Sources: BTM Consult, WindPower Monthly, GE Wind Energy Biomass : Direct fueled 5 20+ Years of Wind Technology Growth 1981 1985 1990 1996 1999 2004 Rotor (Meter) 10 17 27 40 50 77 KW 25 100 225 550 $750 1,500 Cost/kW $2,600 $1,650 $1,333¢ per $1,050kWh $950 $800 MWh 45 220 550 1,480 2,200 5,600 Bottom Line: 1981-1999 = 49x the power, 11x the cost; 1999-2004 = 2.6x the power, 1.8x the cost 6 U.S. Wind Potential is Large, But… Best Resources are Often Distant from Load Centers 7 Basic Qualities of Wind Project Sites z Strong Winds » Minimum Class 4 desired (>7 m/s @ hub height) for wind farms z Transmission Access » distance, voltage, excess capacity z Good Permitting Chances » land use compatibility » public acceptance » visual, noise, and bird/bat impacts z Adequate Land Area » economies of scale with larger project size » multiple landowners Crop of the 21st Century? 8 Siting Tools z Wind Maps & Other Regional Resource Data z Topographic Maps Old vs. New Wind Maps of the Dakotas z Transmission Line Maps & Databases z Property Maps z Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and associated data layers Local Wind Map Showing Transmission and Road Overlays 9 Typical Monitoring Tower • Heights up to 60 m • Tubular pole supported by guy wires • Installed in 1-2 days without concrete using 3 people • Minimum 1 year measurement period • 2-3 measurement levels 10 Establishing Project Viability Wind Resources Determine: z Project Location & Size z Tower Height z Turbine Selection & Layout z Energy Production » annual, seasonal » on- & off-peak » capacity credit z Cost of Energy/Cash Flow z Warranty Terms z Size of Emissions Credits The wind energy industry is more demanding of wind speed accuracy than any other industry. 11 Project Development Steps z Site Selection z Resource Definition z Project Design & Engineering z Permitting z Financing z Construction z Operations » 3-5 yr period from site selection to commissioning 12 Agreements Needed By Developer z Land Acquisition z Permits (local zoning & building; state) z Tax Payments z Turbine Purchase & Warranty z Interconnection z Power Purchase z Financing z Maintenance 13 Land Acquisition z Rule of thumb: ~ 30-50 acres per MW for arrays; 8-12 MW per mile for single ridgeline row z Usually Lease Agreement z Option on the land first (about $3 to $5 per acre?) Much land is currently optioned z Lease cost (~ $3000 - $5000 per turbine per year) z Can include royalty payment option 14 Wind Energy Basics – Wind 101 The Power of the Wind: Cube of Wind Speed z The wind speed is extremely important for the amount of energy a wind turbine can convert to electricity z The energy content of the wind varies with the cube (the third power) of the average wind speed, e.g. if the wind speed is twice as high it contains 2 3 = 2 x 2 x 2 = eight times as much energy. www.windpower.org © 1998 15 Wind Energy Basics – Wind 101 Power of the Wind Formula z The power of the wind passing perpendicularly through a circular area is: P = 1/2*ρ*v3*(pi)*r2 P ~ the power of the wind measured in W (Watt) ρ (rho) ~ the density of dry air (1.225 kg/m sea level at 15° C) V ~ the velocity of the wind measured in m/s (meters per second) (pi) ~ 3.1415926535 R ~ the radius (i.e. half the diameter) of the rotor measured in meters www.windpower.org © 1998 16 Wind Energy Basics – Wind 101 17 Wind Energy Basics – Wind 101 Wind Shear and Roughness (continued) Least Rough Slightly Rough Roughest (Lower Shear) (Medium Shear) (Highest Shear) 18 Qualities of a Good Site z Siting - Good wind resource ( > 10 mph) - Exposure to prevailing wind direction - Large land parcel (min. 1-2 acre) - Low density of local residents - Minimal viewshed concerns - Zoning in place for small wind z Economics - Higher wind speeds = more production = faster return on investment - High electricity costs (> $.12/ kWh) + Wind resource of > 10 mph = feasible project (in most cases) 19 Determining the Site’s Wind Resource The NY State Wind Map z Most NY counties contain windy sites z NY Wind Map now available to help identify site specific wind resource z Map can be queried and magnified on web site z www.truewind.com 20 Determining the Site’s Wind Resource (con’t) 21 Wind Turbines Small and Large Turban Turbine Slide added by G. Canough ETM 22 Southwest Windpower H 80 H 40 Whisper 175 Air 403 Rotor diameter:10' Rotor diameter:7‘ Rotor diameter:15' (5.0 meters) Rotor Diameter:46" Weight:65 lbs Weight:47 lbs Start-Up wind speed:7.1 mph Start up wind speed:7 Start-Up wind speed:7.0 mph Start-Up wind speed:7.5 mph mph Peak Power:3200 W @ 27 mph Peak Power:1000 W @ 24 mph Peak Power:900 W @ 28 mph Output:400 W at 28 mph 23 Bergey Windpower EXCEL 10 kW Start-up Wind Speed: 3 m/s (6.7 mph) Cut-in Wind Speed: 2.5 m/s (5.6 mph) Start-up Wind Speed: 3.4 m/s (7.5 mph) Rated Wind Speed: 11 m/s (24.6 mph) Cut-in Wind Speed: 3.1 m/s (7 mph) Rated Power: 1000 Watts Rated Wind Speed: 13.8 m/s (31 mph) Rated Power: 10 kW (grid & pumping), 7.5 kW for battery-charging 24 Small Wind Turbine Technology z Adaptable to multiple applications - Distributed generation - Agricultural, residential, commercial, municipal - On-grid & off-grid z Simple design, 3 to 4 moving parts means low maintenance z 20 to 40 year design life z Proven technology - 150,000+ installed - Over a billion operational hours z Safe & reliable 25 Small and Large Wind Compared z Large Wind Turbines (>600 kW): - Produces low cost electricity for grid - Sited in groups creating Wind Farms - Installed by a Commercial Developer - Tower heights usually over 200 ft z Small Wind Turbines (<100 kW): - Installed on-grid or off-grid - Designed to off-set or replace utility demanded electricity - Designed for reliability and low maintenance - Tower heights usually 120 ft or less. Turbine on Left: AOC 50 kW, 95 ft total height Turbine on Right GE 1.5 MW, 328 ft total height 26 Turbine Technology Horizontal Axis Wind Turbine (HAWT) – Based upon lift and is now the industry standard Photos courtesy of NREL 27 Turbine Technology Vertical Axis Turbines(VAWT) - VAWTs come in two flavors: lift- and drag- based designs z VAWTs have not performed well in the commercial wind turbine market z VAWTs are very difficult to mount high on a tower to capture the higher level winds. Because of this, they are usually forced to accept the lower, more turbulent winds and produce less in possibly more damaging winds 28 Fuhrlaender 250 • Harbec Plastics in Ontario, NY • Manufactured in Germany • Requires a 125 ton, 50m crane • Active yaw • Pitch control • Dual wound generator (can take advantage of lower wind speeds) 29 Turbine Technology ? 30 NYSERDA Qualified Generator List Mfr Name Model Number Description African Wind Power AWP 3.6 1,000W wind turbine Bergey Windpower BWC XL.1 1,000W Wind Turbine As of 3/2005 Bergey Windpower BWC EXCEL 10,000W Wind Turbine Fortis Espada 800W Wind Turbine Fortis Montana 1400W Wind Turbine Fortis Alize 1200W Wind Turbine Furhlander FL 25 25 kW Wind Turbine Furhlander FL 30 30 kW Wind Turbine Furhlander FL 100 100 kW Wind Turbine Furhlander FL 250 250 kW Wind Turbine Northern Power Systems North Wind 100 100 kW Wind Turbine Point Power Systems 0.8 kW 800W Wind Turbine Point Power Systems 5.8 kW 5,800W Wind Turbine Point Power Systems 12 kW 12,000W Wind Turbine Southwest Windpower AIR403 400W Wind Turbine Southwest Windpower H40 900W Whisper Wind Turbine Southwest Windpower H80 1,000W Whisper Wind Turbine Southwest Windpower 175 3,000W Whisper 3000 Wind Turbine Wind Energy Solutions WES 5 2,500 W Wind Turbine Wind Energy Solutions WES 18 80 kW Wind Turbine Wind Energy Solutions WES 30 250 kW Wind Turbine Wind Turbine Industries 23-10 10,000W Jacobs 23-10 Wind Turbine 31 See www.powernaturally.org/Programs/Wind/incentives.asp for details 32 Offshore: The New Frontier? 33 Conclusions • Clean energy technologies continue to mature and achieve acceptance • Costs are competitive • Optimization of component sizes • New techniques reduce uncertainty in siting and production forecasting • Large majority of public favors clean energy, but wider deployment is triggering NIMBY opposition • Transmission constraints & inconsistent government policies will limit rate of growth 34.