TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................................... 5 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................ 11 1.1 Climate-related natural disasters in Fiji .......................................................................................................... 11 1.2 Changing risk profiles globally under climate change ..................................................................................... 12 1.3 Changing risk profiles in Fiji under climate change ......................................................................................... 13 1.4 Changing risk profiles due to human activity and development ..................................................................... 14 1.4.1 Increases in exposure ......................................................................................................................... 14 1.4.2 Human alterations to natural systems ............................................................................................... 14 1.5 Social resilience ............................................................................................................................................... 14 2 Adaptation strategies for reducing disaster risk.......................................................................................................... 16 2.1 Soft approaches .............................................................................................................................................. 16 2.2 Ecosystem-based adaptation .......................................................................................................................... 16 2.2.1 EbA strategies for reducing flood risk................................................................................................. 17 2.2.2 Upland forests .................................................................................................................................... 17 2.2.3 Riverine and riparian vegetation ........................................................................................................ 17 2.2.4 Floodplain re-vegetation .................................................................................................................... 17 2.2.5 EbA co-benefits .................................................................................................................................. 18 2.2.6 Ecological resilience ............................................................................................................................ 18 2.2.7 Other benefits .................................................................................................................................... 18 2.2.8 Uncertainty in EbA .............................................................................................................................. 19 2.2.9 EbA in the Pacific ................................................................................................................................ 19 3 Study sites ................................................................................................................................................................... 20 3.1 Ba River catchment ......................................................................................................................................... 20 3.2 Penang River catchment ................................................................................................................................. 21 4 CBA methodology and its application ......................................................................................................................... 22 4.1 Methods .......................................................................................................................................................... 22 4.1.1 Survey sample .................................................................................................................................... 22 4.1.2 Survey content ................................................................................................................................... 25 4.1.3 Survey validation, enumeration, and quality assurance ..................................................................... 27 4.1.4 Hydrological model ............................................................................................................................. 27 4.1.5 CBA tool .............................................................................................................................................. 29 4.1.6 Adaptation strategies considered....................................................................................................... 30 4.1.7 Climate change scenarios ................................................................................................................... 31 4.2 Empirical findings ............................................................................................................................................ 31 4.2.1 Survey results ..................................................................................................................................... 31 4.2.2 Flooding and cyclones in 2012............................................................................................................ 39 4.3 Cost-benefit analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 55 4.3.1 Identifying costs and benefits............................................................................................................. 55 4.3.2 Effectiveness of adaptation ................................................................................................................ 56 4.3.3 Monetising costs and benefits of adaptation ..................................................................................... 57 LANDCARE RESEARCH Evaluating Ecosystem-Based Adaptation for Disaster Risk Reduction in Fiji P3 4.3.4 Ba River catchment CBA ..................................................................................................................... 59 4.3.5 Penang River catchment CBA Results ................................................................................................. 63 Appendices .............................................................................................................................................................................. 69 1 Disaster Risk Projections for Fiji .................................................................................................................................. 69 1.1 Observed Changes in Climate ......................................................................................................................... 69 1.2 Climate Change Projections for the Ba River catchment ................................................................................ 69 1.2.1 Temperature....................................................................................................................................... 69 1.2.2 Precipitation ....................................................................................................................................... 71 1.2.3 Tropical cyclones ................................................................................................................................ 75 1.2.4 Floods ................................................................................................................................................. 75 1.3 Climate model performance and uncertainty ................................................................................................. 75 2 Community survey ...................................................................................................................................................... 76 3 Mataqali survey ........................................................................................................................................................... 86 4 Household survey ........................................................................................................................................................ 90 5 CBA Sensitivity Analysis Estimates ............................................................................................................................ 145 References ............................................................................................................................................................................. 157 Authors • Pike Brown Landcare Research New Zealand • Adam Daigneault Landcare Research New Zealand • David Gawith Landcare Research New Zealand • William Aalbersberg University of the South Pacific – Institute of Applied Science • James Comley University of the South Pacific – Institute of Applied Science • Patrick Fong University of the South Pacific – Institute of Applied Science • Fraser Morgan Landcare Research New Zealand Climate Development and Knowledge Networks (CDKN) Project : RSGL-0024 This document is an output from a project funded by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) for the benefit of