TECHNICAL REPORT 2 • JULY 2015 RegionalTECHNICAL Climate REPORT Projections 2 • JULY 2015 TECHNICAL REPORT 2 • JULY 2015 Regional Climate Projections: Hunter, Central and Lower North Coast Region of New South Wales A This report was prepared for the Hunter and Central Coast Regional Environmental Management Strategy This report has been funded through the Australian Government’s Biodiversity Fund Author: Dr Karen Blackmore, School of Design, Communication and Information Technology Newcastle Innovation (The University of Newcastle) Enquires to: Hunter & Central Coast Regional Environmental Management Strategy c/o- Environment Division Hunter Councils Inc. PO Box 3137 THORNTON NSW 2322 Phone: (02) 4978 4020 Email: [email protected] © HCCREMS (2015) ISBN: Suggested bibliographic citation: HCCREMS 2015: A review of Regional Climate Projections for the Hunter, Central and Lower North Coast Region of New South Wales, HCCREMS. Disclaimer: This document has been compiled in good faith, exercising all due care and attention. Hunter Councils Inc and the author do not accept responsibility for inaccurate or incomplete information. Readers should seek professional advice when applying information to their specific circumstances Copyright: This work is copyright. It may be produced in whole or in part for study or training purposes subject to the inclusion of an acknowledgement of the source. It is not intended for commercial sale or use. Reproduction for purposes other than those listed above requires written permission from the authors. TECHNICAL REPORT 2 • JULY 2015 Regional Climate Projections Contents 1. Executive summary ..................................................................................................5 1.1. Review of historical climate data and reference periods ...................................................5 1.2. Review and validation of 2009 regional climate projections ..............................................5 1.3. Climate grid layers .............................................................................................5 2. Introduction...........................................................................................................7 3. The study region .....................................................................................................9 4. Climate zones ....................................................................................................... 10 5. Methodology ....................................................................................................... 11 5.1. Update and analysis of historic climate data . 12 5.1.1. Acquisition and review of recent climate data...................................................... 12 5.1.6. Updating of historic line graphs...................................................................... 15 5.1.7. Determining appropriate climate reference periods............................................... 16 5.2. Evaluation of 2009 climate projections .................................................................... 16 5.2.1. Evaluating 2009 regional climate projections . 16 5.2.2. Calculating projected BOM station change data for 2040, 2060, 2080 ........................... 16 5.3. Generating interpolated (gridded spatial) surfaces ...................................................... 17 6. Limitations . 18 7. Historic climate analysis ........................................................................................... 19 7.1. Annual precipitation ......................................................................................... 19 7.1.1. coastal zone ............................................................................................ 19 7.1.2. central zone ............................................................................................ 20 7.1.3. western zone . 20 7.2. Seasonal precipitation: coastal zone ....................................................................... 21 7.3. Seasonal precipitation: central zone ....................................................................... 23 7.4. Seasonal precipitation: western zone ...................................................................... 25 7.5. Minimum temperature: coastal zone ...................................................................... 27 7.6. Minimum temperature: central zone....................................................................... 29 7.7. Minimum temperature: western zone ..................................................................... 31 7.8. Maximum temperature: coastal zone ...................................................................... 33 7.9. Maximum temperature: central zone ...................................................................... 35 7.10. Maximum temperature: western zone ................................................................... 37 8. Climate projections ................................................................................................ 39 8.1. Seasonal maximum temperature: coastal zone........................................................... 41 8.2. Seasonal maximum temperatures: central zone .......................................................... 43 8.3. Seasonal maximum temperatures: western zone......................................................... 45 8.4. Seasonal minimum temperature: coastal zone ........................................................... 47 8.5. Seasonal minimum temperature: central zone ........................................................... 49 8.6. Seasonal minimum temperature: western zone .......................................................... 51 8.7. Seasonal precipitation: coastal zone ....................................................................... 53 8.8. Seasonal precipitation: central zone ....................................................................... 55 8.9. Seasonal precipitation: western zone ...................................................................... 57 8.10. Pan evaporation: coastal zone............................................................................. 59 8.11. Pan evaporation: central zone............................................................................. 61 8.12. Pan evaporation: western zone ........................................................................... 63 9. Climate grid layers.................................................................................................. 65 10. Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 67 1 TECHNICAL REPORT 2 • JULY 2015 RegionalTECHNICAL Climate REPORT Projections 2 • JULY 2015 References ............................................................................................................. 68 Appendixes . 69 Appendix 1. Spatial grid layers – Average maximum temperature (seasonal) ............................. 69 Appendix 2. Spatial grid layers – Average minimum temperature (seasonal) ............................. 71 Appendix 3. Spatial grid layers – Average precipitation (seasonal) ......................................... 73 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Study region and buffer zone used in climate data selection...........................................9 Figure 2. Coastal, Central and Western Climate Zones . 10 Figure 3. Methodology for reviewing regional climate change projections ....................................11 Figure 4. Linear regression example – Average autumn maximum temperature for Williamtown (1951–2080) with linear regression line and regression equation (b = 0.0205). The red vertical line indicates where the time series has been extended. ...........................................17 Figure 5. Annual precipitation trends for Newcastle ..............................................................19 Figure 6. Annual precipitation trends Gloucester..................................................................20 Figure 7. Annual precipitation trends for Murrurndi ..............................................................20 Figure 8. Average summer precipitation trends Newcastle.......................................................21 Figure 9. Average autumn precipitation trends Newcastle . .21 Figure 10. Average winter precipitation trends Newcastle .......................................................22 Figure 11. Average winter precipitation trends Newcastle .......................................................22 Figure 12. Average summer precipitation trends Gloucester.....................................................23 Figure 13. Average autumn precipitation trends Gloucester . .23 Figure 14. Average winter precipitation trends Gloucester.......................................................24 Figure 15. Average spring precipitation trends Gloucester .......................................................24 Figure 16. Average summer precipitation trends Murrurundi....................................................25 Figure 17. Average autumn precipitation trends Murrurundi ....................................................25 Figure 18. Average winter precipitation trends Murrurundi ......................................................26 Figure 19. Average spring precipitation trends Murrurundi ......................................................26 Figure 20. Average summer minimum temperature trends Williamtown.......................................27 Figure 21. Average autumn minimum temperature trends Williamtown .......................................27