The Ike Dike A Coastal Barrier Protecting the Houston/GalvestonA Coastal Barrier Region from Protecting the Houston/GalvestonHurricane Region from HurricaneStorm Storm Surge Surge If farther west, many more lives lost, much more damage Dutch Delta Commission ¾ Considered Two Major Options ¾ Continue building and strengthening internal dikes/barriers ¾ Shorten the surge defense needed with a coastal spine The Ike Dike strategy is to keep the ocean surge out of Galveston Bay by using a gated coastal barrier Houston Ship Channel High Island Bolivar Roads Existing Seawall Intracoastal Waterway Coastal Spine • San Luis Pass The first component of the Ike Dike already exists – the Galveston Seawall Houston Ship Channel High Island Bolivar Roads Existing Seawall Intracoastal Waterway • San Luis Pass The second component - Land Extensions of the protection afforded by the Seawall Houston Ship Channel High Island Bolivar Roads Existing Seawall Intracoastal Waterway • San Luis Pass Revetments can be hidden to look natural The third component – Flood Gates Houston Ship Channel High Island Bolivar Roads Existing Seawall Intracoastal Waterway San Luis Pass The Bolivar Roads Gates 9 Must not impede navigation 9 Must allow water circulation into the bay under normal conditions 9 But close quickly when a hurricane approaches to provide a 17ft higher-than-sea-level barrier across Bolivar Roads 9 We can use existing technology Possible New York Barrier Dutch Deltaworks and the Ike Dike ¾ Shorten the coast as much as possible ¾ Keep the surge out of internal waters ¾ Use surge gates to accomplish the above ¾ And to allow for ship traffic ¾ And to preserve marine ecosystem function Ike Dike Additional Characteristics ‐1 y Stops the Surge at the coast where it’s the smallest y Protects strategic assets of national importance y Protects Bay’s Natural Resources y Occupies the minimum foot print for comprehensive protection y Protects every community –rich or poor y Entire region recovers quickly Ike Dike Additional Characteristics ‐2 y System can be leaky ‐ unlike New Orleans, Holland y Can use Galveston Bay as a retention pond y Only needs to hold maximum surge for a few hours y Doesn’t harm neighboring communities y Doesn’t lead to a race for more and higher dikes A Coastal Spine Suppresses Surge and is Technically Feasible Economically Sound Environmentally Friendly, and Socially Just It Should Be the Cornerstone of Our Surge Suppression Strategy Research Team 9 Economics – Institute for Regional Forecasting at UH, Dr Bill Gilmer 9 Modeling –Homeland Security Center of Excellence at Jackson State, Dr Robert Whalin and Dr Ty Wamsley, USACE/ERDC 9 Barrier Design –Delft Technical University, Drs. Bas Jonkman and Mathijs van Ledden 9 Overall Flood Risk Reduction/Project Coordination –TAMUG, Drs. Sam Brody and Bill Merrell www.tamug.edu/ikedike Research Approach/Schedule ¾ Economic Study ASAP ¾ Modeling to Inform Economic Study and Barrier Design –Dutch Dialogues ¾ And to Understand Galveston Bay’s Roles ¾ Test Barrier Conceptual Designs ¾ Better Cost Estimates ¾ Costs/Benefits Chemical Plants Affected By Hurricane Rita (Percent U.S. Capacity Shut Down at Peak) Ethylene Steam Cracker: 58.5% RG Propylene: 30.7% Benzene: 68.5% Polyethylene: 63.0% Styrene: 85.3% Butadiene: 95.8% Data from CMAI, Inc and expressed as percent of North American Capacity Ethylene Capacity on the Gulf Coast Location Number of Capacity Crackers (000 ton/yr) Houston/Texas City 16 13,890 New Orleans/Baton 7 5,380 Rouge Beaumont/Lake 8 5,288 Charles Corpus Christi 2 975 Oil and Gas Journal New Ethylene Capacity Concentrated on the US Gulf Coast Company Location Capacity Start‐Up (mm lb/yr) Exxon Baytown 3,300 2016 Chevron Phillips Baytown 3000 2017 Dow Chemical US Gulf Coast 4,200 2017 Ineos Lake Charles, LA 3,000 2018 CP Chem Baytown, TX 2,500 2016/2017 Braskem/Idesa Mexico 2,200 2015 Shell Chemical Pennsylvania 2,000 2016+ Formosa Point Comfort, TX 1,760 2015 LyondellBasell LaPorte, Texas 1,450 2012‐2014 Dow Chemical Hahnville, LA 800 2012Q4 Williams Lake Charles, LA 600 2013Q3 Westlake Chemical Lake Charles, LA 230 2012 Ineos Chocolate Bayou, TX 230 2013 Source: Chemical Week, December 2011.