ANNUAL MARKET PERFORMANCE REVIEW 2017 Final report 20 March 2018 Reference: REL0066: 2017 Annual Market Performance Review Inquiries Australian Energy Market Commission PO Box A2449 Sydney South NSW 1235 E: [email protected] T: (02) 8296 7800 F: (02) 8296 7899 Reference: REL0066 Citation AEMC Reliability Panel, 2017 Annual Market Performance Review, final report, 20 March 2018, Sydney About the Reliability Panel The Panel is a specialist body within the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) and comprises industry and consumer representatives. It is responsible for monitoring, reviewing and reporting on reliability, security and safety on the national electricity system, and advising the AEMC in respect of such matters. The Panel’s responsibilities are specified in section 38 of the National Electricity Law. This work is copyright. The Copyright Act 1968 permits fair dealing for study, research, news reporting, criticism and review. Selected passages, tables or diagrams may be reproduced for such purposes provided acknowledgement of the source is included. Reliability Panel Members Brian Spalding, Chairman and AEMC Commissioner Trevor Armstrong, Chief Operating Officer, Ausgrid Lance Balcombe, Chief Executive Officer, TasNetworks Mark Collette, Executive Energy, EnergyAustralia Royce De Sousa, General Manager - Energy & Sustainability, Visy Gavin Dufty, Manager Policy and Research, St Vincent de Paul Society, Victoria Miles George, Strategic Adviser, Infigen Energy Ltd Chris Murphy, Strategic Advisor, Meridian Energy and General Manager - Energy Market Interfaces, Telstra Cameron Parrotte, Executive General Manager - Strategy & Innovation, AEMO Richard Wrightson, General Manager Wholesale Markets, AGL Energy Introduction i Foreword I am pleased to present this final report setting out the findings of the Reliability Panel's annual review of market performance. The Panel has reviewed the performance of the national electricity market (NEM) in terms of reliability, security and safety over the 2016/17 period, in accordance with the requirements of the National Electricity Rules. Security concerns the technical resilience of the power system itself and is primarily the responsibility of the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO); reliability is about the likelihood of consumers being supplied and at the wholesale level is primarily driven by market investment. We have considered both historic trends and some projections of the security and reliability of the NEM. In 2016/17, the security performance of the NEM has been mixed. In 2016/17 there were 11 instances of the system being operated outside its secure limits for greater than 30 minutes. Under the National Electricity Rules (Rules) AEMO is required take all reasonable actions to adjust, wherever possible, the system’s operating conditions with a view to returning the power system to a secure operating state as soon as it is practical to do so, and, in any event, within thirty minutes. While the frequency operating standard was met in the mainland it was not met in Tasmania for seven months of the reporting year. In 2016/17, at a wholesale level, 0.00036 per cent unserved energy from events which the rules define as reliability events was recorded in South Australia. This is within the reliability standard (an expectation that no more than 0.002 per cent of demand for energy will be unmet in any region of the NEM). At a wholesale level, there was no other unserved energy recorded due to reliability events for any other region in the NEM. While the NEM has performed well over the last decade in terms of reliability, projections show that some unserved energy, within the reliability standard, is forecast over the medium term (2018/19 to 2026/27). The Panel also notes there are a number of significant changes ongoing in the NEM, with implications for reliability and security. There were some major security events witnessed in 2016/17, chiefly, the South Australian black system event which occurred on 28 September 2016. This incident saw a total loss of supply to the region, close to 850,000 customers. It is estimated that South Australian businesses suffered costs of $450 million as result of the blackout. This incident demonstrated both the importance and difficulty in maintaining system security in a changing environment. The reliability load shedding event that occurred in South Australia on 8 February 2017, featured extreme temperatures that led to high demand conditions and coincided with factors including outages of thermal generation and inaccurate forecasts. In addition there is ongoing retirement of conventional thermal generation. In March 2017, 1600MW of brown coal generation was withdrawn from the NEM with the closure of the Hazelwood Power Station. This trend is coupled with continuing entry of large volumes of new generation technologies, particularly intermittent, renewable generation. ii 2017 Annual Market Performance Review In the context of these challenges, the Panel acknowledges the significant body of work underway that is currently considering how to maintain the resilience of the NEM. This includes the Energy Security Board's (ESB) National Energy Guarantee, the Panel's Reliability standard and settings review, the Australian Energy Market Commission's (AEMC) Reliability frameworks review, the AEMC's Frequency control frameworks review and the AEMC's Generator technical performance standards rule change. The frameworks requiring Transmission Network Service Providers (TNSPs) to maintain minimum levels of inertia and system strength will also commence 1 July 2018. These frameworks arise from the Commission’s Managing the rate of change of power system frequency and Managing power system fault levels final rules. AEMO’s first power system frequency risk review, required by the National Electricity Amendment (Emergency frequency control schemes) rule will also be complete by April 2018. The Panel has structured this report to enhance usefulness for different readers. A short summary report is provided for those readers seeking a high level overview of the review and key trends. The main report provides further detail through additional commentary on the review and these key trends. Technical detail is then available in the relevant appendices. The preparation of this report could not have been complete d without the assistance of AEMO, the Australian Energy Regulator, network service providers, and state and territory government departments and regulatory agencies in providing relevant data and information. I acknowledge their efforts and thank them for their assistance. Finally, the Panel commends the staff of the AEMC secretariat for their efforts in coordinating the collection and collation of information presented in this report, and for drafting the report for the Panel's consideration. Brian Spalding, Chairman, AEMC Reliability Panel, Commissioner, AEMC Introduction iii Concise report This final report sets out the findings of the Reliability Panel’s 2017 annual market performance review (AMPR) as required by the National Electricity Rules (rules or NER). This review is conducted in accordance with terms of reference issued by the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC). Covering the period 1 July 2016 to 30 June 2017, the 2017 AMPR includes observations and commentary on the security, reliability and safety performance of the power system. This concise report is structured as follows: • Key concepts: security, reliability and safety are the three main concepts considered by the Panel when undertaking the AMPR. • Market trends: the key trends in generation, interconnection and demand. • Security review: an overview of security outcomes and emerging trends in the NEM. • Reliability review: an overview of reliability outcomes and forecasts in the NEM. • Safety commentary: a short summary of safety in the NEM • Relevant policy developments: a short summary of other policy work currently underway that is relevant to the ongoing security and reliability of the NEM. This concise report is intended to provide a high level summary of key trends in the NEM. More detailed information and commentary is provided in the main body of the report and in the relevant appendices. Key concepts The focus of the review is the security, reliability and safety performance of the NEM. It is therefore important to understand these concepts: • Security: Security relates to the maintenance of the power system within specific technical operational limits, including specific frequency and voltage limits. AEMO (the system operator) operationally manages security. This is done through a variety of measures such as constraints applied in the dispatch of generation, directing participants or instructing load shedding. The power system is defined to be in a secure operating state if: — the power system is in a satisfactory operating state1 — the power system will return to a satisfactory operating state following the occurrence of any credible contingency event in accordance with the power system security standards.2 1 A satisfactory operating state is defined in clause 4.2.2 of the rules. It refers to operation of equipment within voltage and current limits as well as the frequency of the power system being within defined frequency bands. 2 A credible contingency event means a contingency event the occurrence of which AEMO considers to be reasonably possible in the surrounding circumstances including the technical envelope. For example, a credible contingency could include