Development of a spatial planning support system for agricultural policy formulation related to land and water resources in Borkhar & Meymeh district, Iran Bahman Farhadi Bansouleh Promotor: Prof. dr. ir. H. Van Keulen Professor at the Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University, the Netherlands Co-promotor: Dr. M.A. Sharifi Associate Professor at the International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), the Netherlands Examining Committee: Prof. dr. ir. E.M.A. Smaling International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation (ITC) and Wageningen University, the Netherlands Prof. dr. A. Van der Veen International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation (ITC) and University of Twente, the Netherlands Prof. dr. ir. R. Rabbinge Wageningen University, the Netherlands Dr. ir. Gh.H. Aghaya Ministry of Jihad-e-Agriculture, Iran This research is carried out within the C.T. de Wit Graduate School for Production Ecology and Resource Conservation (PE&RC) in Wageningen University, the Netherlands. Development of a spatial planning support system for agricultural policy formulation related to land and water resources in Borkhar & Meymeh district, Iran Bahman Farhadi Bansouleh Thesis To fulfil the requirements for the degree of Doctor on the authority of the Rector Magnificus of Wageningen University Prof. Dr. M.J. Kropff to be publicly defended on Friday 8 May, 2009 at 15:00 hrs in the auditorium at ITC, Enschede, The Netherlands Development of a spatial planning support system for agricultural policy formulation related to land and water resources in Borkhar & Meymeh district, Iran ISBN: 978-90-8585-381-7 International Institute for Geo-information Science & Earth Observation (ITC), Enschede, the Netherlands ITC Dissertation Number: 161 To my wife, Arezou and my daughter, Ghazal Table of contents Acknowledgements ........................................................................................ iv 1 Introduction ....................................................................................... 1 1.1 Planning and planning support systems ................................................. 1 1.2 Agricultural development and agricultural policy formulation .............. 4 1.3 Bio-economic (agro-economic) models for agricultural policy analysis 7 1.4 Agricultural planning in Iran ................................................................ 13 1.5 Research objectives .............................................................................. 15 1.6 Conceptual framework of a planning support system for agricultural policy formulation ................................................................................ 16 1.7 Study area ............................................................................................. 17 1.8 Structure of the thesis ........................................................................... 23 2 Point-based simulation of barley production using the crop growth simulation model WOFOST ..................................................................... 25 Abstract ......................................................................................................... 25 2.1 Introduction .......................................................................................... 25 2.2 Study site .............................................................................................. 27 2.3 WOFOST ............................................................................................. 28 2.4 Calibration and validation of WOFOST............................................... 33 2.5 Uncertainty analysis of field data ......................................................... 38 2.6 Discussion and conclusion ................................................................... 44 Acknowledgments ......................................................................................... 46 3 Sensitivity analysis of performance of crop growth simulation models to daily solar radiation estimation methods ................................ 47 Abstract ......................................................................................................... 47 3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................... 47 3.2 Material and Methods ........................................................................... 49 3.3 Results .................................................................................................. 54 3.4 Discussion and conclusions .................................................................. 62 Acknowledgments ......................................................................................... 64 4 Estimation of regional agricultural production using the crop growth monitoring system ........................................................................ 65 Abstract ......................................................................................................... 65 4.1 Introduction .......................................................................................... 66 4.2 Study area ............................................................................................. 67 4.3 Methodology ........................................................................................ 69 4.4 Implementation ..................................................................................... 83 4.5 Results ................................................................................................ 100 4.6 Discussion and conclusions ................................................................ 126 5 Development of a spatial planning model for agricultural policy analysis in Borkhar & Meymeh district, Iran ........................................ 131 Abstract ....................................................................................................... 131 5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................ 131 5.2 The study area .................................................................................... 134 5.3 Conceptual framework for land use policy formulation ..................... 134 5.4 Model structure .................................................................................. 135 5.5 Identification of planning unit (unit of analysis) ................................ 136 5.6 Model components ............................................................................. 146 5.7 Generation of input/output coefficients (technical coefficients) ........ 159 5.8 Estimation of available water per village ........................................... 166 5.9 Model experimentation....................................................................... 174 5.10 Discussion .......................................................................................... 178 6 Policy formulation for agricultural development: A case study in Borkhar sub-district, Esfahan province, Iran ........................................ 183 Abstract ....................................................................................................... 183 6.1 Introduction ........................................................................................ 183 6.2 Review of agricultural policy objectives in Iran ................................ 185 6.3 Identification of policy objectives and instruments in the arable farming sub-sector ........................................................................................... 186 6.4 Indicators ............................................................................................ 190 6.5 Policy impact assessment ................................................................... 194 ii 6.6 Evaluation of policy instruments ........................................................ 202 6.7 Discussion and conclusions ................................................................ 209 7 General discussion ......................................................................... 213 7.1 Strengths of the methodology ............................................................. 215 7.2 Limitations/weaknesses of the methodology ...................................... 218 7.3 Operational issues for application of the system ................................ 222 7.4 Concluding remarks ........................................................................... 224 References ................................................................................................... 225 Summary ..................................................................................................... 241 Samenvatting ............................................................................................... 245 Summary in Persian) ..................................................................... 249) ﺧﻼﺻﻪ Annex 1: Calibrated crop file of barley ....................................................... 253 Annex 2: Average of soil characteristics of top soil in the villages of Borkhar & Meymeh district ............................................................... 256 Annex 3: Code of villages ........................................................................... 258 Annex 4: List of indices .............................................................................. 259 Annex 5: List of variables and parameters in the model ............................. 260 Annex 6: List of Acronyms ........................................................................