The Effectiveness of Influence Activities in Information Warfare Cassandra Lee Brooker A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Research School of Business May 2020 Thesis/Dissertation Sheet Surname : BROOKER Given Name/s : CASSANDRA LEE Abbreviation for degree : MRes Faculty : UNSW Canberra School : School of Business Thesis Title : The Effectiveness of Influence Activities in Information Warfare Abstract Rapid, globalised power shifts, technological advances, and increasingly interconnected, ungoverned communications networks have resulted in the rise of asymmetric grey zone threats. The lines are now blurred between political, civil, and military information environments. The rise of influence activities is the new ‘sharp power’ in information warfare (the iWar). Western democracies are already at war in the information domain and are being out-communicated by their adversaries. Building on the commentary surrounding this contemporary threat, and based on a review of the literature across three academic disciplines of: Systems Thinking, Influence, and Cognitive Theory; this study aimed to investigate solutions for improving Australia’s influence effectiveness in the iWar. This study asked how systems thinking can offer an effective approach to holistically understanding complex social systems in the iWar; as well as asking why understanding both successful influencing strategies and psychological cognitive theories is central to analysing those system behaviours. To answer the aim, a systems thinking methodology was employed to compare two contrasting case studies to determine their respective influencing effectiveness. The successful case system comprising the terrorist group ISIS was compared and contrasted with the unsuccessful case system of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 election campaign – using a single stock of influence to determine relevant reinforcing and balancing feedback. The findings validated the utility of systems thinking analysis for holistically understanding complex iWar systems, and revealed why the case systems were effective or not in raising influence stocks, dominating the iWar, and manipulating cognitive behaviour. The results highlighted the configurational, behavioural, and causal factors contributing to influence effectiveness and were summarised into key themes for each of the research disciplines, e.g. a successful system has control, resilience, a centrality of focus, and strong communications links. Based on the results, this study concluded with a number of recommendations including: having a resonant strategic narrative and cohesive communications strategy, turning democratic vulnerabilities into strengths, adopting systems thinking approaches, enhancing critical thinking, exploiting civilian capabilities, and regaining control over the media. Further research is required across all three academic disciplines to enhance understanding and resilience, refine approaches, and improve the effectiveness of Australia’s future iWar strategy. Declaration relating to disposition of project thesis/dissertation I hereby grant to the University of New South Wales or its agents a non-exclusive licence to archive and to make available (including to members of the public) my thesis or dissertation in whole or in part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known. I acknowledge that I retain all intellectual property rights which subsist in my thesis or dissertation, such as copyright and patent rights, subject to applicable law. I also retain the right to use all or part of my thesis or dissertation in future works (such as articles or books). ………………………………………........... ..…30 May 2020…... Signature Date The University recognises that there may be exceptional circumstances requiring restrictions on copying or conditions on use. Requests for restriction for a period of up to 2 years can be made when submitting the final copies of your thesis to the UNSW Library. Requests for a longer period of restriction may be considered in exceptional circumstances and require the approval of the Dean of Graduate Research. 2 | P a g e 5249168 Cassandra Brooker Masters of Research ORIGINALITY STATEMENT ‘I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, or substantial proportions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project's design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged.’ Signed …………………………………………….............. Date …………......30 May 2020..……………………........ 3 | P a g e 5249168 Cassandra Brooker Masters of Research INCLUSION OF PUBLICATIONS STATEMENT UNSW is supportive of candidates publishing their research results during their candidature as detailed in the UNSW Thesis Examination Procedure. Publications can be used in their thesis in lieu of a Chapter if: The candidate contributed greater than 50% of the content in the publication and is the “primary author”, ie. the candidate was responsible primarily for the planning, execution and preparation of the work for publication The candidate has approval to include the publication in their thesis in lieu of a Chapter from their supervisor and Postgraduate Coordinator. The publication is not subject to any obligations or contractual agreements with a third party that would constrain its inclusion in the thesis Please indicate whether this thesis contains published material or not: ☒ This thesis contains no publications, either published or submitted for publication Some of the work described in this thesis has been published and it has been ☐ documented in the relevant Chapters with acknowledgement This thesis has publications (either published or submitted for publication) ☐ incorporated into it in lieu of a chapter and the details are presented below CANDIDATE’S DECLARATION I declare that: I have complied with the UNSW Thesis Examination Procedure Where I have used a publication in lieu of a Chapter, the listed publication(s) below meet(s) the requirements to be included in the thesis. Candidate’s Name Signature Date (dd/mm/yy) Cassandra Lee Brooker 30/05/20 4 | P a g e 5249168 Cassandra Brooker Masters of Research COPYRIGHT STATEMENT ‘I hereby grant the University of New South Wales or its agents a non-exclusive licence to archive and to make available (including to members of the public) my thesis or dissertation in whole or part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known. I acknowledge that I retain all intellectual property rights which subsist in my thesis or dissertation, such as copyright and patent rights, subject to applicable law. I also retain the right to use all or part of my thesis or dissertation in future works (such as articles or books).’ ‘For any substantial portions of copyright material used in this thesis, written permission for use has been obtained, or the copyright material is removed from the final public version of the thesis.’ AUTHENTICITY STATEMENT ‘I certify that the Library deposit digital copy is a direct equivalent of the final officially approved version of my thesis.’ Table of Contents THESIS PART ONE – THE RESEARCH PROBLEM ......................................................................... 9 CHAPTER 1 – INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 10 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 10 Information Warfare (iWar) Contextualised ........................................................................................ 11 The Problem ............................................................................................................................................. 13 Research Questions ............................................................................................................................... 14 Significance of Research ....................................................................................................................... 15 Scope of Research ................................................................................................................................. 15 Thesis Overview ....................................................................................................................................... 16 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................. 17 CHAPTER 2 – LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................. 19 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 19 Part One: Systems approaches to the iWar ........................................................................................... 20 Systems thinking theory .......................................................................................................................