THE EFFECTIVENESS OF INTERNATIONAL REGIMES IN STATES WITH LOW INTERNAL CAPACITY: A STUDY OF INTERNATIONAL REFUGEE REGIME IN AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ AND SUDAN A Ph.D. Dissertation by ARZU GÜLER Department of International Relations İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University Ankara May 2013 To Suzan and Yakup Güler THE EFFECTIVENESS OF INTERNATIONAL REGIMES IN STATES WITH LOW INTERNAL CAPACITY: A STUDY OF INTERNATIONAL REFUGEE REGIME IN AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ AND SUDAN Graduate School of Economics and Social Science of İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University by ARZU GÜLER In Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS İHSAN DOĞRAMACI BİLKENT UNIVERSITY ANKARA MAY 2013 I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosopy in International Relations. ----------------------------------- Asst. Prof. Ali Bilgiç Supervisor I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosopy in International Relations. ----------------------------------- Asst. Prof. Özgür Özdamar Examining Committee Member I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosopy in International Relations. ----------------------------------- Asst. Prof. Clemens Maximilian Hoffmann Examining Committee Member I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosopy in International Relations. ----------------------------------- Asst. Prof. Saime Özçürümez Bölükbaşı Examining Committee Member I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosopy in International Relations. ----------------------------------- Asst. Prof. Özlen Künçek Çelebi Examining Committee Member Approval of the Graduate School of Economics and Social Sciences ----------------------------------- Prof. Dr. Erdal Erel Director ABSTRACT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF INTERNATIONAL REGIMES IN STATES WITH LOW INTERNAL CAPACITY: A STUDY OF INTERNATIONAL REFUGEE REGIME IN AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ AND SUDAN Güler, Arzu Ph.D., Department of International Relations Supervisor: Asst. Prof. Ali Bilgiç May 2013 Nearly one out of the six states in the world is regarded with low internal capacity by the Failed State Index 2012. However, having a priori assumption on states’ internal capacity to take decisions and implement them within their own states, scholarly attention has been given to the factors that shape states’ behaviors towards international regimes, mainly discussing under what conditions states will comply with them. Thus, the literature on international regimes neglected to study the effectiveness of international regimes in the states with low internal capacity. This dissertation deals with the research question of how the presence of states with low internal capacity creates implications for the effectiveness of iii international regimes and how regimes’ institutions can operate in such states to increase regime effectiveness. I examine this research question through quantitative and qualitative analyses and with a specific reference to the 4Rs activities of the international refugee regime in three refugee producing countries, namely Afghanistan, Iraq and Sudan. I argue that international refugee regime was not effective in these countries and I propose six tentative principles to UNHCR and its implementing partners to increase the effectiveness of international refugee regime in refugee producing countries with low internal capacity: providing civilian security, overcoming socio-cultural and religious conservatism, increasing government capacity and willingness to cooperate with international community, building trust among local people towards international community and increasing their support for regime activities. Keywords: International regimes, regime effectiveness, international refugee regime, UNHCR, Afghanistan, Iraq, Sudan. iv ÖZET İÇ KAPASİTESİ DÜŞÜK ÜLKELERDE ULUSLARARASI REJİMLERİN ETKİNLİĞİ: AFGANİSTAN, IRAK VE SUDAN ÜZERİNDEN BİR ULUSLARARASI MÜLTECİ REJİMİ ÇALIŞMASI Güler, Arzu Doktora, Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ali Bilgiç Mayıs 2013 Başarısız Devletler Endeksi 2012 verilerine göre, neredeyse her altı devletten biri iç kapasitesi düşük ülke olarak değerlendirilmektedir. Ancak yazında, devletlerin karar alma ve aldıkları kararları kendi ülkelerinde uygulama kapasiteleri ile ilgili öncül bir varsayım olduğu için; akademik ilgi, devletlerin uluslararası rejimlere karşı davranışlarını hangi etkenlerin şekillendirdiğine, özellikle de devletlerin hangi şartlar altında uluslararası rejimlerle uyumlu hareket ettiğine odaklanmıştır. Dolayısıyla uluslararası rejim yazını, uluslararası rejimlerin iç kapasitesi düşük ülkelerdeki etkinliğini ihmal etmiştir. Bu çalışma iç kapasitesi düşük ülkelerin, uluslararası rejimlerin etkinliğini nasıl etkilediği ve rejim kurumlarının bu v ülkelerde rejim etkinliğini arttırmak için nasıl faaliyet gösterebileceği araştırma sorusunu ele almaktadır. Çalışma bu araştırma sorusunu, nicel ve nitel analizler çerçevesinde uluslararası mülteci rejiminin mülteci üreten üç ülkedeki (Afganistan, Irak ve Sudan) 4R faaliyetleri ile incelemektedir. Bu çalışmada, uluslararası mülteci rejiminin bu ülkelerde etkin olmadığı iddia edilmekte ve UNHCR ve uygulama ortaklarının mülteci üreten iç kapasitesi düşük ülkelerde rejim etkinliğini arttırabilmesi için altı muhtemel prensip önermektedir: sivil güvenliğin sağlanması, sosyo-kültürel ve dini muhafazakârlığın aşılması, hükümetin uluslararası toplum ile işbirliği kapasitesinin ve istekliliğinin arttırılması, toplumda uluslararası topluma karşı güven tesis edilmesi ve toplumun rejim faaliyetlerine desteğinin arttırılması. Anahtar Kelimeler: Uluslararası rejimler, rejim etkinliği, uluslararası mülteci rejimi, BMMYK, Afganistan, Irak, Sudan. vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to express my greatest thanks to Asst Prof. Ali Bilgiç for his guidance and patience. Without him, this study would not have been materialized. I would also like to thank Assoc. Prof. Gülgün Tuna for her encouragement and support as my previous supervisor. I would like to thank Asst. Prof. Özlen Künçek Çelebi from Hacettepe University for her continuing support to my academic life since my undergraduate years. I am greatly indebted to her for her input in the committees. I also thank Asst. Prof. Özgür Özdamar, Asst. Prof. Clemens Maximilian Hoffmann and Asst. Prof. Saime Özçürümez Bölükbaşı for their very useful comments. I owe my sincere gratitude to my department at Adnan Menderes University for giving me the chance to complete my study. Last but not least, I would like to thank my parents and friends for their full support. My dear parents Suzan and Yakup Güler patiently shared the burden of writing a dissertation. I am also grateful for the constant support and help of Gönül Tezcan, Sercan Pekel and Duygu Öztürk. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................ iii ÖZET ....................................................................................................................... v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................... vii TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................... viii LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................ xii LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................. xiii CHAPTER 1:INTRODUCTION .......................................................................... 1 1.1 Theoretical Framework .............................................................................. 3 1.2 Theoretical Contribution ............................................................................ 5 1.3 Limitations ................................................................................................. 6 1.4 Thesis Outline ............................................................................................ 9 1.5 Research Design ....................................................................................... 12 1.5.1 Criteria for Case Selection ................................................................ 13 1.5.2 Quantitative Analysis ........................................................................ 14 1.5.2.1 Sustainability of Reintegration ...................................................... 15 1.5.2.2 Prevention of New Flows .............................................................. 19 1.5.3 Qualitative Analysis .......................................................................... 20 1.5.4 Collected Data .................................................................................. 22 CHAPTER 2:LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................ 23 2.1 Literature Review on International Regimes ........................................... 24 2.1.1 Realist School of Thought ................................................................ 25 2.1.2 Neoliberal School of Thought .........................................................