Simulation and Optimization of High-Penetration Wind and Solar Energy for the Canadian High Arctic Research Station by Michael David Brown A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Affairs in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Applied Science in Sustainable Energy Carleton University Ottawa, Ontario ©2018 Michael David Brown Abstract This thesis explores the potential for renewable wind and solar energy to meet the electrical demand of the Canadian High Arctic Research Station, the Government of Canada’s new flagship Arctic research facility located in Cambridge Bay, Nunavut. Time-series simulation models based on measured weather data and simulated energy demand were constructed in TRNSYS. The models were coupled to GenOpt in order to optimize system configuration with respect to net present cost, using the particle swarm optimization technique. The results suggest that renewable energy can meet a portion of the demand more cost- effectively than diesel generation alone. A major challenge is the ability of the local grid to absorb surplus renewable power. Increasing the renewable penetration rate at the station beyond about 65% is not economically feasible with the generating and storage technologies considered in this thesis. Policy approaches to implementing renewable energy in Nunavut are also discussed. ii Acknowledgements I would like to thank my thesis advisor, Dr. Cynthia Cruickshank. I wouldn’t have finished this work if it weren’t for her guidance, patience, and support during this lengthy endeavour. To the people of Cambridge Bay, who were so very welcoming during my stays in the community, I am deeply appreciative. I hope this work will contribute in its own small way to a more sustainable future for the community and the territory. To all my colleagues on the CHARS project, it was a privilege to work with you and I cannot stress how much I learned from all of you. I hope our paths cross again. I would like to specifically thank my mentors over the years – Rein, Santino, Matthew, and Mark. Another thank-you is due to my co-authors on some related papers – Alain, Robyn, JF, and Guillaume. It goes without saying, but I will anyway - thank you to Mom, Dad, and brother Steve. Finally, thank you to Andrew for everything over the years, and I hope many more to come. iii Table of Contents Abstract ....................................................................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................................. iii Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................................................... iv List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................................. vii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................................ ix List of Acronyms ....................................................................................................................................................... xi Nomenclature .......................................................................................................................................................... xiii 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................1 1.1. CHARS Project Context ...........................................................................................................................3 1.2. Community Context .................................................................................................................................4 1.3. Sustainable Design of the CHARS Campus ...........................................................................................5 1.4. Research Objectives ..................................................................................................................................7 1.5. Research Contribution .............................................................................................................................7 1.6. Thesis Outline ............................................................................................................................................9 2. Literature Review ............................................................................................................................................ 10 2.1. Simulation of Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems ............................................................................. 10 2.2. Optimization ........................................................................................................................................... 11 2.3. Wind and Solar Energy in Diesel-Electric Grids in the Arctic ......................................................... 17 3. Energy Conversion for Electric Power Generation .................................................................................... 23 3.1. Diesel Generator ..................................................................................................................................... 25 3.2. Wind Turbine ......................................................................................................................................... 28 3.3. Solar PV ................................................................................................................................................... 30 iv 3.4. Electrical Storage .................................................................................................................................... 33 4. Demand and Resource Analysis .................................................................................................................... 38 4.1. CHARS Campus Energy Demand ....................................................................................................... 39 4.2. Statistical and Actual Meteorological Year Weather Files ................................................................ 41 4.3. Cambridge Bay Weather Monitoring and Data ................................................................................. 42 5. Simulation Model ............................................................................................................................................ 51 5.1. Controller Model & Dispatch Strategy ................................................................................................ 56 5.2. Electrical Storage Model ........................................................................................................................ 58 5.3. Photovoltaic Model ................................................................................................................................ 59 5.4. Wind Turbine Model ............................................................................................................................. 62 5.5. Diesel Generator Model ........................................................................................................................ 66 5.6. Financial Calculator ............................................................................................................................... 70 6. Optimization Approach ................................................................................................................................. 71 6.1. Particle Swarm Optimization with Discrete Variables ...................................................................... 71 6.2. Neighborhood Topology ....................................................................................................................... 74 6.3. Optimization Parameters ...................................................................................................................... 75 7. Financial Model ............................................................................................................................................... 77 7.1. Net Present Cost ..................................................................................................................................... 78 7.2. Payback Period ....................................................................................................................................... 81 7.3. Discount Rate .......................................................................................................................................... 82 7.4. Externalities ............................................................................................................................................. 83 7.5. Surplus Power Value .............................................................................................................................. 85 7.6. Cost Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 85 8. Results and Discussion ................................................................................................................................... 87 v 8.1. Grid-integrated: Wind/Photovoltaic