NATURAL RESOURCE ACCOUNTING IN THEORY AND PRACTICE: A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT* Michael Harris and Iain Fraser Department of Economics and Finance La Trobe University Melbourne Victoria, 3086 November 2001 Abstract In this paper an extensive review of the theoretical and applied literature on NRA is provided. The review begins by explaining the economic theory that underpins NRA, contrasting welfare and sustainability as policy goals, and presenting various distinct conceptions of national income. The state of play regarding official revisions to the system of national accounts (SNA) with respect to natural resources and the environment is presented and controversial areas are highlighted. Finally, the economic literature on proposed revisions, and applied studies that have proceeded using these methods, is summarised and critiqued. We argue that much of the literature proceeds with weak conceptual foundations, and that typical case studies produce results that are ambiguous in interpretation. Moreover, we highlight fundamental tensions between economic theory and national accounting methodology, and conclude that one outcome of this has been insufficient attention paid by economists to the revisions to the SNA, instead devoting time and effort to “freelance” NRA case studies utilising sometimes ad hoc methods from the economic literature. Key Words: Natural Resource Accounting, National Income, Resource Management, Welfare, Sustainability * The authors wish to thank Harry Clarke, Geoff Edwards, John Mullen and three very conscientious referees for extensive comments on a disorganised early draft. The quality of the final result owes much to them. As usual, all deficiencies remain the property of the authors. 1. Introduction “There is a dangerous asymmetry in the way we measure...the value of natural resources... A country could exhaust its mineral resources, cut down its forests, erode its soils, pollute its aquifers, and hunt its wildlife to extinction, but measured income would rise steadily as these assets disappeared.” (Repetto 1988, p.2) Economic activity inevitably entails interaction with the environment, either as resource use, as a sink for waste assimilation or as a source of amenity value. Traditional measures of economic activity such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Net Domestic Product (NDP)1 generated via the existing System of National Accounts (SNA), are recognised as being inadequate in terms of accurately measuring the contribution of, and impact on, the environment. Specifically, costs of environmental degradation and natural resource depletion, and non-market amenity values are not included. Furthermore, defensive expenditures designed to offset pollution are counted as additions to GDP/NDP.2 Thus the present measures of economic performance that are given primary importance in public policy formation and debate can provide misleading information on which to base decision making. Variables that contribute to economic well being are excluded from national income calculations.3 National income in its current guise, and the current SNA, provides a poor reflection of both current and future standards of living. Hence environmental adjustments to the SNA and more broadly the introduction of Natural Resource Accounting (NRA) are advocated on the basis of removing the current biases. Reviewing the main proposals for adjusting the accounts to rectify these biases is a key purpose of this paper. However, there are more analytic questions of interest than simply how the accounts should be modified. Why they should be modified also deserves attention. There are two questions here which are relatively under-researched: what are we trying to measure? and what effect will this have? In answering the first question we are attempting to frame existing and proposed accounting processes in terms of clear measurement objectives. With the second question we are examining how improved accounting practices are thought to lead to improved choices and better outcomes. In this paper we focus on the first question as opposed to the second because this has been the focus of the bulk of the existing literature. However, we note that the role of biased accounts in “misguiding” policy, and the possibility for policy improvements resulting from changing the accounting system in particular 1 The literature often refers to net and gross national product (NNP/GNP). We treat these as interchangeable with domestic product measures. 2 We use the term environment broadly, encompassing both natural and environmental resources. 3 For an early discussion of the discrepancies between GDP and a welfare index see Denison (1972). 2 directions is an under-researched topic. Deficiencies and disagreements in the NRA literature may in part be attributed to inadequate attention to the underlying policy questions that should have been posed in the first place. One key feature of the NRA literature, stressed in this review, is its paradigmatic diversity. The literature is contributed to by economic theorists; by applied economists; by ecological economists; and by national accountants. As a result, concepts, assumptions and terminology vary throughout the literature yielding tensions and inconsistencies. Ideally, the theory should provide a supporting conceptual framework for the practical recommendations regarding adjustments, which should in turn inform applied researchers. However, the various areas of work are not well integrated at all. In some cases, linkages between them barely exist, and in others there are significant tensions or conflicts. Evidence of cross-purpose confusion arises in the terminology used. The banner of NRA includes “resource accounting”, “environmental accounting”, and “Green GDP”. Sometimes they are interchangeable and other times they are separate and distinct processes or measures.4 The structure of this paper is as follows. We proceed from an examination of the theoretical underpinnings (Sections 2 and 3) to applications (Sections 4 and 5), concluding with an overall assessment in Section 6. In particular, Section 2 examines the key conceptual aspects and policy objectives of NRA, which are bound up (we contend) with arguments about how to define and measure well-being and sustainability. Section 3 presents a detailed discussion of income and growth, arguing that there is not one all-encompassing definition of income suitable for all purposes: in fact, part of the difficulty in the area involves how best to reconcile ex post income measures with ex ante income concepts. Section 4 then covers changes in official national accounting with regard to resources and the environment. Section 5 presents an overview of the economic literature, both conceptual and applied, presenting key case studies and critically examining methods and results. In Section 6 we provide conclusions. 2. What Are We Trying to Measure, and Why? “Do changes in national income and product over time or differences among nations really measure appropriately changes and differences in 4 Resource accounting sometimes refers to a limited approach using satellite accounts where natural resources are measured, sometimes in purely physical terms, while the main monetary aggregates (particularly GDP) remain unmodified. Environmental accounting can refer to adjustments reflecting pollution or changes in environmental amenities, while “Green GDP” explicitly refers to adjustment of the major economic indicator. 3 ‘well-being’ or, perhaps more to the point, ‘economic well-being’? Do our measures show correctly the distribution of income and output within the population, their cyclical fluctuations, and their allocation to current consumption and accumulation of capital for the future? ...Do our measures really fit the theoretical constructs they are presumed to serve?” (Eisner, 1988, p. 1612.) 2.1 Exposing SNA Shortcomings Raises Further Questions Conventionally measured GDP is constructed as a measure of the output of the market sector, yet in its interpretation as a nation’s income, it is often presented as a measure of standards of living, and thus as a proxy for social welfare. However, conventionally measured GDP has serious deficiencies as a measure of genuine standards of living, especially with regard to the environmental impact of economic activity. Resource stocks whose use contributes to current income flows can be depleted without any corresponding adjustment to account for this depletion, thus treating reductions in wealth as increases in income. Environmental assets in situ may be degraded due to economic activity, resulting in a reduction in social welfare, also without any corresponding adjustment being made in the accounts. Yet simply identifying “obvious” gaps in the SNA is only one analytical step. Other analytical questions remain, which we will use to frame the subsequent discussion in this survey. In particular, we will focus on two main questions.5 The first is: what are we aiming to achieve in adjusting our measures of income and wealth? Put another way, what role is national income meant to perform? What would we like it to be a measure of? What signals might it provide to policymakers? Possible roles include (see for example Denison 1972, Eisner 1988, Rymes 1993): - Allowing comparisons of standards of living over time - Allowing comparisons of standards of living across countries - As an indicator of sustainable consumption - As a benefit-cost decision rule by which any action that increases the index has overall benefits exceeding the