Louisiana Political Survey Sept. 29-30, 2015 MOE=+/-2.9% Sample Size=1,047 Trend Data: 09/18/2015 Trend Data: 09/01/2015 Trend Data: 08/19/2015 Trend Data: 07/30/2015 Trend Data: 07/15/2015 Trend Data: 06/30/2015 Trend Data: 03/06/2015 Triumph Campaigns, LLC; 201 W. Capitol Street, 4th Floor; Jackson, MS 39201 Survey Summary Governor’s Race: Throughout the 2015 election cycle there have been discrepancies in indings on the Governor's race ballot from one 9irm to the other. Some have begun to question the accuracy of polling this cycle. Well, here is one constant throughout our surveys ... unless something changes drastically in the next 23 days, this primary is still going to end with Vitter and Edwards in the run-off. Multi candidate elections are about base vote. The two candidates with the biggest base vote move on. Worse case scenario for Edwards is he gets 90% of the African American vote (based on historical election returns) and 20% of the white vote (based on polling averages). This puts Edwards’ election night ballot score at 38%. Based on polling, Vitter can count on 40% support among white voters, which puts him at 29% on election night. The math is obvious: 38% (Edwards’ base vote) + 29% (Vitter’s base vote) means that one of the other candidates needs to get nearly 100% of the 33% remaining. Good luck. Governor Ballot 6% 7% 28% 10% 15% 35% DAVID VITTER JOHN BEL EDWARDS JAY DARDENNE SCOTT ANGELLE OTHER CANDIDATE UNDECIDED BALLOT TREND ALL BALLOT TREND WHITE ONLY BALLOT TREND AFRICAN AMERICAN ONLY BALLOT TREND REPUBLICAN VOTERS ONLY BALLOT TREND INDEPENDENT VOTERS ONLY BALLOT TREND DEMOCRAT VOTERS ONLY Lieutenant Governor Ballot 17% 27% 6% 27% 22% JOHN YOUNG BILLY NUNGESSER KIP HOLDEN ELBERT GUILLORY UNDECIDED Attorney General Ballot 20% 24% 6% 24% 27% JEFF LANDRY BUDDY CALDWELL IKE JACKSON MARTIN MALEY UNDECIDED Secretary of State Ballot 23% 44% 33% TOM SCHEDLER CHRIS TYSON UNDECIDED Treasurer Ballot 24% 58% 17% JOHN KENNEDY JENNIFER TREADWAY UNDECIDED .