Final Report Analysis of Red and Processed Meat Purchases in Scotland using Representative Supermarket Panel Data Cesar Revoredo-Giha, Wendy Wrieden, Beata Kupiec-Teahan, Philip Leat, Andrew Fearne and Luca Cacciolatti 1 April – 2009 1 Contact address: Food Marketing Research Team – Land Economy and Environment Group, Scottish Agricultural College (SAC), King’s Buildings, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, UK. Phone: 0044-(0)131 535 4344, Fax: 0044-(0)131 667 2601, E-mail: [email protected]. Table of Contents I. Introduction ............................................................................................6 II. Literature review regarding red meat purchases in UK and Scotland....9 III. Methods...............................................................................................22 IV. Geographical analysis of red meat and preserved meat purchases....32 V. Analysis of red meat and preserved meat purchases by CAMEO groups .................................................................................................37 VI. Analysis of red meat and preserved meat purchases by Lifestage groups .................................................................................................41 VII. Analysis of purchases of red and preserved meat of Scottish origin ...46 VIII. Case study: analysis of the purchases of sausages............................48 IX. Conclusions.........................................................................................56 X. Limitations and strengths of the data and possibilities for further research ..............................................................................................61 XI. References..........................................................................................63 XII. Annexes ..............................................................................................66 Index of Tables Table 1: UK retail sales of red meat, by type of outlet and value, 2003-07 ....14 Table 2: Comparison of retail outlets share in value of meat sales in Scotland and the UK, 2007....................................................................................14 Table 3: Percent changes in quantity purchased, expenditure and price of meat categories 2008/2009 ....................................................................16 Table 4: Household consumption of fresh meat: Scotland versus the whole of the UK.....................................................................................................16 Table 5: UK retail sales of delicatessen meats, by value, by type of outlet, 2003-07...................................................................................................17 Table 6: UK retail sales of bacon, by type of outlet and value, 2002-06 ........17 Table 7: Types of canned meals and meats purchased in the last 12 months, UK versus Scotland ................................................................................18 Table 8: Forecast of UK retail sales of red meat, by value and volume, 2003- 13............................................................................................................20 Table 9: Regional distribution with percentage with respect of shoppers.......23 Table 10: Lifestage classification and percentage of customers ....................24 Table 11: The UK-CAMEO classification .......................................................25 Table 12: Composition of the red and preserved meat category....................27 Annex Tables Table A.1: UK - Mean and standard deviation of the proportion of total customers by geographical area that purchase red meat (%) ................66 Table A.2: UK - Mean and standard deviation of expenditure share of weekly purchases by meat categories (%) .........................................................67 Table A.3: UK - Mean and standard deviation of weekly number of units purchased of red and preserved meat categories ..................................68 Table A.4: UK - Mean and standard deviation of the number of units purchased by meat categories................................................................69 Table A.5: Scotland - Mean and standard deviation of the proportion of total customers by that purchase red meat by CAMEO group (%) .................70 Table A.6: Scotland - Mean and standard deviation of expenditure share of weekly purchases by red and preserved meat categories and CAMEO groups (%) ..............................................................................................71 Table A.7: Scotland - Mean and standard deviation of weekly number of units purchased of red and preserved meat categories and CAMEO groups..72 Table A.8: Scotland - Mean and standard deviation of weekly number of units purchased of red and preserved meat categories and CAMEO groups..73 Table A.9: Scotland - Mean and standard deviation of the proportion of total customers by that purchase red meat by Lifestage groups (%).............74 Table A.10: Scotland - Mean and standard deviation of expenditure share of weekly purchases by red and preserved meat categories and Lifestage groups (%) ..............................................................................................75 Table A.11: Scotland - Mean and standard deviation of weekly number of units purchased of red and preserved meat categories and Lifestage groups.....................................................................................................76 Table A.12: Scotland - Mean and standard deviation of weekly number of units purchased of red and preserved meat categories and Lifestage groups.....................................................................................................77 Table A.13: Scotland - Mean and standard deviation of the share of ‘Scotch’ and other Scottish products on the total value of the purchased of red and preserved meat categories (%) ..............................................................78 Table A.14: Scotland - Mean and standard deviation of expenditure share of weekly purchases of sausages by nutritional categories and CAMEO groups (%) .............................................................................................79 Table A.15: Scotland - Mean and standard deviation of expenditure share of weekly purchases of sausages by nutritional categories and Lifestage groups (%) .............................................................................................81 2 Index of Figures Figure 1: Comparison of volume share change of different meat and fish product in Great Britain and Scotland in total meat and fish retail sales (%) ..........................................................................................................13 Figure 2: Comparison of meat sales in the whole of Great Britain versus Scotland..................................................................................................15 Figure 3: Retail meat prices changes in the UK during last 3 years...............18 Figure 4: Proportion of customers that buy red and preserved meat .............32 Figure 5: Distribution of the expenditure by red and preserved meat in the UK ................................................................................................................33 Figure 6: Distribution of the expenditure by red and preserved meat by Scottish region........................................................................................34 Figure 7: Distribution of the expenditure by major red meat products in the UK ................................................................................................................34 Figure 8: Distribution of the expenditure on major preserved meat products in the UK.....................................................................................................35 Figure 9: Number of units purchased of red and preserved meat by customer ................................................................................................................35 Figure 10: Number of units purchased of red and preserved meat by customer buying meat ............................................................................................36 Figure 11: Proportion of customers that buy red and preserved meat by CAMEO group in Scotland......................................................................37 Figure 12: Distribution of the expenditure by red and preserved meat in Scotland by CAMEO group.....................................................................38 Figure 13: Distribution of the expenditure by major red meat products in Scotland by CAMEO group.....................................................................38 Figure 14: Distribution of the expenditure by major preserved meat products in Scotland by CAMEO group.....................................................................39 Figure 15: Number of units purchased of red and preserved meat per CAMEO group customer in Scotland ....................................................................39 Figure 16: Number of units purchased of red and preserved meat per customer in Scotland ..............................................................................40 Figure 17: Proportion of customers that buy red and preserved meat by Lifestage group in Scotland ....................................................................41 Figure 18: Distribution of the expenditure by red and preserved meat in Scotland by Lifestage group ...................................................................42 Figure 19: Distribution of