D.T3.2.2 Report 12.2019 Zero scenario of TRITIA traffic model Responsible Partner: PP4 Transport Research Institute, JSC. Contribution partners: PP1 Upper Silesian Agency for Entrepreneurship and Development LTD. PP3 The Union for the Development of the Moravian Silesian Region PP5 Dopravní projektování PP6 University of Žilina Contents List of Tables .............................................................................................................. 2 List of Figures ............................................................................................................. 3 1. The basics of the model of TRITIA multimodal potential ..................................................... 4 1.1. Analysis of outputs provided by existing traffic models ................................................... 5 2. Model of TRITIA multimodal potential ............................................................................ 7 2.1. Zoning of the modelled area ..................................................................................... 7 2.1.1. Identification of the territory of interest .................................................................. 7 2.1.2. Structure of the zonal division ............................................................................... 9 2.2. Network model of the TRITIA territory – Infrastructure ................................................. 10 2.2.1. Transport infrastructure - zero scenario ................................................................. 12 2.2.2. Development of transport infrastructure by 2030 ..................................................... 14 3. Model of TRITIA multimodal potential .......................................................................... 22 3.1. Traffic model of current state /2020/ ....................................................................... 22 3.1.1. Calibration and validation.................................................................................... 24 3.2. Traffic model of zero scenario /2030/ ....................................................................... 29 3.2.1. The quantification of the useable potential for the transfer to rail and inland waterway transport .......................................................................................... 30 3.2.2. Identification of railway infrastructure bottlenecks ................................................... 32 List of Tables Table 1 Zonal structure of the TRITIA traffic model .............................................................. 9 Table 2 Basic statistic data on the TRITIA transport network ................................................ 11 Table 3 List of planned road infrastructure projects in Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia by 2030 ........................................................................................................... 16 Table 4 List of planned railway infrastructure projects in Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia by 2030 ........................................................................................................ 18 Table 5 List of planned inland waterway infrastructure projects in Poland, and Czech Republic by 2030 ........................................................................................................ 21 Table 6 List of planned intermodal terminals in Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia by 2030 ..... 22 Table 7 Values of the GEH parameter within the calibration of the current state /2020/ of TRITIA model ................................................................................................. 25 Table 8 Values of the GEH parameter within validation of current state /2020/ of TRITIA model .................................................................................................................. 27 Table 9 Prognosis of GDP applied in road freight traffic model .............................................. 29 Table 10 Bottlenecks on the railway infrastructure after redistribution of transport load in zero scenario /2030/ ....................................................................................... 33 List of Figures Figure 1 Detailed zonal division of the territory covered by TRITIA traffic model ........................ 8 Figure 2 Zonal division of wider territory of the TRITIA traffic model ....................................... 9 Figure 3 Transport infrastructure of the TRITIA traffic model ............................................... 12 Figure 4 Road transport infrastructure in the TRITIA area of interest ..................................... 12 Figure 5 Railway transport infrastructure in the TRITIA area of interest ................................. 13 Figure 6 Inland waterway infrastructure in TRITIA area of interest ........................................ 14 Figure 7 Example of transport relations passing through the Svrčinovec - Mosty u Jablunkova border crossing .............................................................................................. 23 Figure 8 Localization of calibration and validation profiles of TRITIA model ............................. 25 Figure 9 Localization of validation profiles of TRITIA model (highlighted in blue) ...................... 27 Figure 10 Road network load by freight traffic in TRITIA model, current state /2020/ ................ 29 Figure 11 Road network load by freight traffic in the TRITIA model, zero scenario /2030/ .......... 30 Figure 12 Parameterization of the impedance function of the TRITIA model, zero scenario /2030/ ....................................................................................................... 31 Figure 13 Resistance functions of TRITIA model in PTV VISUM, zero scenario /2030/ .................. 31 Figure 14 Model of redistribution of traffic load to multimodal transport network of TRITIA territory, zero scenario /2030/ ........................................................................ 32 Figure 15 Shift of total transport load potential to individual transport modes, zero scenario /2030/ ....................................................................................................... 32 1. The basics of the model of TRITIA multimodal potential The process of traffic modelling plays an important role in the process of strategic planning of transport infrastructure development and investment allocation in the transport sector. The methodological approach in developing a traffic model largely depends on the purpose and aims, for which it is developed. At present, most traffic models are focused on demand analysis of passenger transportation. The main reason for this approach is the excessive volume of vehicles in agglomerations that needs to be addressed in order to improve traffic flow and population mobility. Freight transport contributes significantly to these transport problems through increased load on transport infrastructure and the resulting negative impacts such as congestions, deterioration of environmental standards and lower quality of life of the affected population. The transportation of goods on a macroeconomic scale is a necessary precondition to ensure economic growth on national level and the satisfaction of population in terms of product demand. This function implies a continuous optimization of transport process of the carriers. It is particularly necessary to tackle this problem at the European macro-region level, which achieves above- average economic growth and is defined by the unfinished infrastructure of higher transport relevance for individual transport modes. The territory of TRITIA consists of 4 regions from 3 neighbouring EU member states. The TRITIA region is formed by Moravian-Silesian region (CZ), Silesian and Opole Voivodeship (PL) and Žilina region (SK). The total area of the considered region is 34 069 km2 with roughly 7,8 million residents. The biggest agglomerations of the TRITIA area are the cities of Katowice and Ostrava, which form important metropolitan areas. Given the rather complex relationships within the transport process, which are based on the mobility behaviour of the population (passenger transport) and the ensuring of goods supply (freight transport), it is necessary to use transport engineering tools and procedures, which allow the verification and justification of infrastructure modification and other interventions. This way the modelling of the traffic flow allows the identification of the infrastructure bottlenecks and the testing of the impact of proposed alternative measures. In general, the basic purpose of the TRITIA traffic model can be defined as the quantification of transport relations in the considered area and the review of the changes in transport relations due to the infrastructure development in the region by 2030. The role of the traffic model was also to identify the potential for transferring a part of freight transport to more environmental friendly modes of transportation (railway and inland waterways). The project is focusing on the cross-border, transnational and interregional cooperation with the aim of strengthening of economic and social cohesion in order to achieve the objectives defined by the Europe 2020 Strategy as well as the EU White Paper on Transport. The main task of the project is to improve coordination at the level of strategic planning aimed at the development of infrastructure in the regions, which will result in the elimination of bottlenecks on the main transit routes. One of the most important parts of the project is the elaboration of a strategy (implementation