MULTICHANNEL NEWS • MAY 19, 2008 101 WITHOUT LIFE CABLE ISTOCKPHOTO.COM ONE MAN’S VIEW OF AN UNTETHERED FUTURE by PAUL STRAssMANN will add movies from 20th Century computer into an infinite collection a central point. But even switched Using cable can be complicated. Fox, Paramount Pictures, Lionsgate of video in various forms. It allows digital video ends up delivering a Cablevision Systems provides 37 In October 2005, Multi­ and other major studios. plunging into a Google-like global bit stream to a TV set — a TV set control buttons plus a twelve-but- channel News asked: “Is Google Ca- The fact is that video viewing is database for exploring and then with inconvenient navigation. ton keyboard for a digital video re- ble’s Next Nightmare?” My answer in the process of becoming bifur- locating what could be of interest. The operator also can feed pro- corder. To see a TV show in a cable- was an emphatic “No.” cated. On one hand, you have those That can’t be done with cable, be- gramming to a computer instead provided or computer-generated “The Internet Search Giant Isn’t who are used to pushing buttons on cause of the inherent limitations of of a TV. However, the offerings are form, one must manage the video About to Set Up the Largest Video- remote-control key sets to choose the buttons as a search and explora- likely to be limited and do not of- display and switch into the comput- Over-Fiber Network in the World. what to see. They choose from a tion device. fer the breadth of what ultimately er mode, which requires 38 control Not Yet Anyway,” was the headline menu of prescheduled, prepro- It is only a matter of time what’s will be delivered over the Internet buttons, plus another twelve-button on my response. grammed and predigested shows accessible by mouse will take a sig- — and, in many ways, already is. keyboard. This assessment holds up today, that are then delivered mostly at set nificant share of viewing over what Cable operators may well find To look at DVDs, one needs a except that the arrival of Web TV, times. That makes the process ways to harness the full DVD player, which has 32 control not to be confused with Micro- of choosing relatively sim- offering of the Internet, buttons and a twelve-button key- soft’s www.webtv.com, is now get- ple and straightforward, and pass the results board. All told, it takes instructions ting closer. And it just may not be but the choices are neces- TV & BEYOND: straight through to a TV to use correctly 107 control but- Google who delivers such capabil- sarily limited. COMMENTARY set or set-top box. tons and inconsistent keyboards ity: It may be NBC Universal and On the other hand, A cable leader such to operate cable in this manner. News Corp., with Hulu, or some- you have those who are as Comcast is one of the There are three separate instruction body yet to emerge. using a mouse or mouse-like today is accessible on cable or operators that may actually be on manuals accompanying each re- What seems safest to say is we devices to pick what to view. They a satellite dish. the brink of fomenting the switch mote control device, with 67 pages are now only five to 10 years away can search, find and then access an The future of cable will be driven to the Internet. What’s holding back of instructions. from being able to view cable pro- infinite number of videos that are by the viewers’ quest for locating video services on the Net now? Directions on how to open and grams as effectively — or in some neither prescheduled nor prepro- a variety of media and for giving Bandwidth. Few viewers can stream then view a single telecast was a ways, more so — than on our cur- grammed. them the ability to make choices full-size video at realistic speeds. page listing eight paragraphs of rent TV sets. With a mouse, you can find vid- about what to see. Cable provid- “High-speed” service is often at 5 typed instructions. Right now, you can watch what eos that are in historical archives. ers and satellites, communicating Megabits per second. But when the What do we get for all this com- Apple, Joost and a few others are On cable you cannot. With a mouse, serially on a channel with limited 100 Mpbs service that Comcast calls plexity? For $121.99 plus tax per offering. It gives a clue what the your choices have no limits. capacity, are too constrained to ac- “wideband” starts to roll out, the month, exclusive of Internet access, future looks like. Even though its Of course, a computer has the ca- complish that. And there is no way picture — literally — changes. Cablevision delivers programming Apple TV box has not been a hit on pacity to display prescheduled per- a cable headend can match locally The world of the remote-control on 250-plus channels, each with the order of the iPod, Apple can do sonal preferences for easy use, by what an enormous, centrally man- keypad is constrained. Cable provid- a fixed schedule. Using a limited now what cable cannot, even with a offering menus from a TiVo look- aged database can offer. Only com- ers operate in local markets. Cable search capability, one can identify digital video recorder or one of its alike screen. That would serve the puters, connected via the Internet firms must operate a very expensive programs scheduled one month successor devices attached. It can audiences who wish to have quick to exabytes of organized video files, transmission system to reach their ahead, each labeled with only a display a richness of available video and simple access to scheduled pro- can tap into the universal libraries customers, whether it is by cable short description. There is no way that the limited scope of TV cannot grams. You use a mouse to click on of all of the video that has ever be- or by satellite. You must construct to search backwards to find prior achieve. your choices. You do not need re- come available. ground stations and pay for satellite shows. TiVo and DVRs do offer Even in its infancy, Apple offers a mote-control buttons to do that. Sure, there’s switched digital transponders. The customer must look-ahead search capabilities, but rich menu for locating video sourc- After one has viewed scheduled video, where a cable operator stores invest in one or more television sets, these are not easy to use and require es. And on May 1, it announced it events, the mouse can then take the programming in a big database at and rent add-on control devices. See FUTURE on page 102 102 MAY 19, 2008 • MULTICHANNEL NEWS THE FUTURE FUTURE, from page 101 tive, as well as satisfy digital rights considerable effort to locate a show. management needs. In addition, cable offers a limited Note that Hulu’s research and de- selection of movies on-demand, velopment work is done in China. generally costing $4.95 plus tax The likely scenario is that Web TV apiece. To subscribe to scheduled will be launched, on a massive scale, sports events requires an elaborate in the rapidly advancing Pacific re- sign-on process so that one can gion. Web TV offers a shortcut to add another $5.95 plus tax to the the distribution of videos without monthly bill. incurring the costs of laying into I estimate the monthly total of place a costly cable infrastructure. Cablevision programming at about Wireless Internet is most likely 200,000 hours. With an average to be the means by which the mar- viewing habit of leaving the TV on ket penetration of life without cable for three to four hours per day, this will take place. Already, wireless suggests that only 0.06% of what connectivity in a limited area, like is provided is actually selected by a house, can match the speed of customers from a fixed menu of hard-wired connections to the In- programming choices. Most of the ternet; and can be far cheaper. content cable spends money to pro- By 2012, almost 50% of the vide is wasted. world’s Internet population will live For the time being, cable works in the Asia-Pacific region, which well because people have set view- makes it unlikely that they will wish ing habits. With the exception of to expend the capital for laying co- occasional TiVo and DVR custom- axial cable or optical fiber to reach a ers, their viewing offers instant ac- highly concentrated population. cess only. Cable, so far, excludes customers from all Internet-acces- LIFE WITH CABLE sible video. Even now that likely ex- Apple TV offers a rich menu of video choices to its users. The technical feasibility of life with- ceeds billions of hours of recorded out cable is more a matter of tim- information. cell phones or from any computing plus the inconvenience of a car trip, By contrast, Comcast, Cablevi- ing and of a business model than of device in between. or $4.95 for 24-hour viewing privi- sion and Time Warner Cable deliv- capability. Life without cable is al- THE EXPANDING MOUSE This is not a plug for Apple. But, leges on Cablevision. er choices through menus that are ready present to a significant extent The world of the mouse is global, with the Apple TV, an iPod-style There are many options available chronologically arranged and have today (see related story, page 103).