Working Paper 28 Comparing locations: Grouping wards in London, the South East and East of England By Said Hirsh and Ellie Cooper (Volterra Consulting) copyright Greater London Authority January 2008 Published by Greater London Authority City Hall The Queen’s Walk London SE1 2AA www.london.gov.uk enquiries 020 7983 4000 minicom 020 7983 4458 ISBN: 978-1-84781-116-5 Cover photograph © Fergus Noone This publication is printed on recycled paper For more information about this publication, please contact: GLA Economics telephone 020 7983 4922 email [email protected] GLA Economics provides expert advice and analysis on London’s economy and the economic issues facing the capital. Data and analysis from GLA Economics form a basis for the policy and investment decisions facing the Mayor of London and the GLA group. The unit is funded by the Greater London Authority, Transport for London and the London Development Agency. GLA Economics uses a wide range of information and data sourced from third party suppliers within its analysis and reports. GLA Economics cannot be held responsible for the accuracy or timeliness of this information and data. GLA Economics, the GLA, LDA and TfL will not be liable for any losses suffered or liabilities incurred by a party as a result of that party relying in any way on the information contained in this report. Comparinglocations:GroupingwardsinLondon,theSouthEastandEastofEngland ReportHighlights Thisreportanalysesthechangesinareaandemploymentcharacteristicsofwards inLondon,theSouthEastandpartsoftheEastgovernmentofficeregionsoverthe period1991to2004.Thewardsareclassifiedintofiveareagroupsandthree employmentgroups. Intermsofareacharacteristics,weseeincreasesinbothpopulationandemployment densities,butthereisalessevenincreaseinemploymentdensitywheresubstantial increasesoccurinLondonandinandaroundotherurbancentreswithnoorlittle changeinmanyrurallocations. Anothervariableexperiencingsomechangesistheproportionofethnicminorities whereweobserveincreasesacrosstheregion,withwardsbothinandoutsideof Londonseeingasmallbutevenlyspreadincrease. Intermsofemploymentcharacteristics,employmentinRetail&LeisureandBusiness SupportServicesseesthefastestgrowth;asaresult,wardsclassifiedasCommercial dominatethelandscapeandthenumberofwardsclassifiedasIndustrialorPublic Servicesfalls. Deprivationlevelsfallacrosstheboardbutthesourcesofdeprivationinwardsin LondonandthoseoutsideofLondonarefoundtobedifferent.InLondon,thesources ofdeprivationarehousing,crimeandthelivingenvironment,whileeducationand healthemergeasthemainsourcesofdeprivationinwardsoutsideofLondon. WardsthatareclassifiedasCommercialandthoseinareaswithhigherpopulationand employmentdensitiesbenefitedfromfastergrowthinemploymentovertheperiod. Furthermore,thesourceofemploymentgrowthinlessdenseandIndustrialis employmentinRetail&LeisureandBusinessServices. Finally,employmentgrowthwasveryslow,orevennegative,inwardsclassifiedas PublicSector.Thisreflectsgovernmentexpenditureinthemostdeprivedareas. GLAEconomics i Comparinglocations:GroupingwardsinLondon,theSouthEastandEastofEngland Contents ExecutiveSummary ...........................................................................................................1 1.Introduction .................................................................................................................5 2.Methodology................................................................................................................6 3.TheData.......................................................................................................................6 4.GroupResults.............................................................................................................16 5.Conclusions.................................................................................................................29 AppendixI:TechnicalBackground ....................................................................................30 AppendixII:IndustrialGrouping........................................................................................32 AppendixIII:IndustrialVariableMaps ..............................................................................35 AppendixIV:GroupMaps................................................................................................46 AppendixV:DegreesofMembership ...............................................................................54 ii GLAEconomics WorkingPaper28:Comparinglocations:GroupingwardsinLondon,theSouthEastandEastofEngland ExecutiveSummary Introduction Thepurposeofthisanalysisistoidentifywardswhichhavesufficientsimilaritytobe identifiedasagroup.Inparticular,wewanttoseetheextenttowhichthereisanoverlap betweenplacesinLondonandothersurroundingregions.Welookattheemploymentand demographicstructureofwardsinLondon,theSouthEastandpartoftheEastgovernment officeregions.Geographicalanalysisisusuallybasedonadministrativeboundariesasthese providethebasisofmanyofficialdatasources.However,wardboundariesaredefinedtotry andensurethatthesamenumberofelectorsisrepresentedineachwardandthese boundariesdonotnecessarilyrepresentanythingusefulabouttheeconomyandsocietyin whichwelive.However,aswardsarethesmallestpossibleavailablegeographicaldataset, weusetheseastheunitofmeasurementandexamineitscharacteristics. Thetechniqueweadoptisamodernextensionofclusteranalysiscalledfuzzyclustering.In thistechnique,wedonotneedtomakeassumptionsandpre-definelocations;instead,we usethedatatodeterminegroupingsofareasthataresimilartoeachotherwithrespectto employmentanddemographiccharacteristics. ChangesinGroupMemberships,1991to2004 Weusedataontheemploymentanddemographicstructureof2723wardsinLondon,the SouthEastandpartsoftheEastofEnglandtocreategroupings.Theresultisapowerful classificationsystemmadeupofthreeemploymentgroupsandfiveareagroupswhichare alsocombinedtoform15employment-areacategories.Wegroupthewardsbasedondata fromtwotimeperiods-1991and2004.Welookathowboththecharacteristicsandthe wardmembershipsofthegroupshavechangedoverthisperiod.Thisallowsustogetagood indicationforhowthestudyareahaschangedthroughtime. TheemploymentgroupingresultsinthreegroupswhichweentitlethePublicSector, CommercialandIndustrialgroups,duetorelativedominationofthesesectorsofemployment ineachcase.Eachwardhassomedegreeofmembershipofeachofthegroupsandis assignedtothegroupinwhichithasthehighestmembership.Theareagroupingresultsin fivegroupswithgroup1containingwardswhichonaveragearelargerandtheleastdense andgroup5thesmallestanddensest.Tableoneprovidesadescriptionofeachofthearea groupswithanexampleofaLondonwardbelongingtothatgroup.Eachwardhassome degreeofmembershipofeachofthegroups. GLAEconomics 1 WorkingPaper28:Comparinglocations:GroupingwardsinLondon,theSouthEastandEastofEngland Table1:Descriptionofareabasedgroups-examplestakenfrom2004results AreaGroup Description Wardsinthisgrouphave,onaverage,anareaof39sq.km.,apopulationdensityof193 1 peoplepersq.km.,employmentdensityof203peoplepersq.km.,anageof41yearsand 3percentunemployment-anexampleisDarwinintheLondonBoroughofBromley Wardsinthisgrouphave,onaverage,anareaof8sq.km.,apopulationdensityof1,174 peoplepersq.km.,employmentdensityof634peoplepersq.km.,anageof41yearsand 2 3percentunemployment-anexampleisEastSheenintheLondonBoroughofRichmond uponThames Wardsinthisgrouphave,onaverage,anareaof4sq.km.,apopulationdensityof2,925 3 peoplepersq.km.,employmentdensityof1,434peoplepersq.km.,anageof38years and3percentunemployment-anexampleisEdgwareintheLondonBoroughofBarnet Wardsinthisgrouphave,onaverage,anareaof3sq.km.,apopulationdensityof4,891 4 peoplepersq.km.,employmentdensityof1,984peoplepersq.km.,anageof36years and5percentunemployment-anexampleisHighgateintheLondonBoroughofCamden Wardsinthisgrouphave,onaverage,anareaof1sq.km.,apopulationdensityof10,518 people per sq. km., employment density of 4,831 people per sq. km., an age of 34 years 5 and9percentunemployment-anexampleisWhitechapelintheLondonBoroughof TowerHamlets Intermsofareadata,changeshappenslowly.Thedemographiccharacteristicsofthewards havechangedlessthantheemploymentpatternhas.Nonethelesstherehasbeensometrend toaconcentrationofdensityinLondon,especiallyinnerLondon,withsomespreadingof suburbsintorurallocations. Foremploymentdata,changesaremuchmoreapparent,withafallinthemembershipof bothPublicSectorandIndustrialgroups.Thistrendisconfirmedwhenweconsideroverall employmentintheindustrialandpublicservicessectorsintheregionsconsidered;thefirst fallingnearlyfivepercentoverallwhilethelatterincreasesonlyfourteenpercentoverthe period,approximatelyathirdofthegrowthseeninservice-basedemployment.Furthermore, theemploymentresultsseemtocapturethetrendofserviceconsolidationinthepublic sector,withwardsbelongingtothePublicSectorgroupbecomingbetterdefinedassuch despitethefallinthenumberofwardsbelongingtothatgroup.Thegeographicalpatternof employmentismuchmoremixedthanthatoftheresidentialattributes. Cross-ClassificationofGroups Hereweconsiderthecrossclassificationofwardstoemploymentandareagroups.For examplein2004,thereare152wardswhichhavethehighestmembershipsofthe Commercialemploymentgroupandtheleastdenseareagroup1andonly30wardswhich havethehighestmembershipoftheIndustrialemploymentgroupandthesmallestarea group5;tabletwoshowsthecrossclassificationofwardsin2004. 2 GLAEconomics WorkingPaper28:Comparinglocations:GroupingwardsinLondon,theSouthEastandEastofEngland Table2:Cross-ClassificationofGroups,2004 PublicSector Commercial Industrial Total Group1 69 152 215 436 Group2 224 288 267 779 Group3 241 267 204 712 Group4 186 219 139 544 Group5 91 131 30