The Economics of Petroleum Exploration and Development in Viet Nam By H. Luong Lien A thesis submitted to The University of New South Wales in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Engineering December, 1998 School of Petroleum Engineering The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, AUSTRALIA ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS My sincerest thanks go to Mr. Guy Allinson and Associated Professor Sheik Rahman from the School of Petroleum Engineering, University of New South Wales, for their supervision and supports. Without their encouragement, support, flexibility and guidance, this thesis could never have become reality. My special thanks to Mr. Guy Allinson for making time for me despite his busy schedules. Guy gave me my first break by agreeing to supervise my research and giving me directions. Guy also gave me the opportunity to work at Petroconsultants and Cairn Energy. I thank him for his invaluable guidance and feedback, and his patient reading of my write-ups. I am also indebted to Petroconsultants Australasia in Sydney for permission to use their library and other data belong to the company. I wish to thank Mark Elliston from Petroconsultants Australasia for his advises and helps in building the cashflow models. Many thanks to Jenny, Rebecca and Kim from Petroconsultants Australasia for their assistance in helping me finding the data and information incorporated in this thesis. I would like to thank all the people that I met in PetroVietnam last year for their willingness to help me understand various aspects of the petroleum industry in Viet Nam. I thank my parents for their love and supports through the years, and for encouraging me to stay in Australia two more years to take this Master research course. They are my motivation when I lost interests in studying. I thank my Khanh for his love and patience and for always being there for me through good times and bad. Warmest thanks to my house-mates Uyen, Binh, Due, Tuan for their friendship. They were my second family when I was miles away from home. ABSTRACT When international oil companies make investment decisions to explore for and develop petroleum resources in a particular country, they need to examine many aspects of that country to assess the opportunities and risks associated with the new market. The main objective of this thesis is to provide a detailed assessment of various factors affecting the economics of petroleum exploration and development in Viet Nam from the investors’ point of view. The thesis includes information and analyses on geography, business environment, infrastructure, and the energy market in Viet Nam. The country’s petroleum exploration performance and field developments are also discussed in detail. Exploration and development costs are estimated for different areas of Viet Nam. The structure and components of Vietnamese fiscal regime are examined and analysed to gain a better understanding of the current forms of petroleum arrangement in Viet Nam. Most importantly, the economic and sensitivity analyses are carried out to demonstrate the profitability of exploring for and developing representative oil and gas discoveries in different physical and geological conditions. In addition, fiscal analyses are conducted to assess the economic effects of the government take on marginal projects. Contents Page 1 The economics of petroleum exploration and development in Vietnam Contents Acknowledgments Abstract Chapter 1. Introduction Page 1.1 Chapter 2. Summary and conclusions Page 2.1 Chapter 3. Geography 3.1 Petroleum activities Page 3.1 3.2 Climate Page 3.4 3.3 Topography Page 3.8 3.4 Vegetation Page 3.10 3.5 Bathymetry Page 3.10 3.6 Sea conditions Page 3.11 3.7 Population Page 3.12 Chapter 4. Infrastructure 4.1 The economy Page 4.1 4.2 The oil and gas industry Page 4.2 4.3 The labour market Page 4.3 4.4 Roads Page 4.3 4.5 Railways Page 4.4 4.6 Inland waterways Page 4.4 4.7 Ports and shipping Page 4.7 4.8 Airports Page 4.10 4.9 Electricity distribution Page 4.10 4.10 Telecommunications Page 4.11 4.11 Financial services Page 4.12 4.12 Pipelines Page 4.13 4.13 Shipping and shipbuilding Page 4.15 4.14 LPG facilities Page 4.15 4.15 Liquids distribution Page 4.17 4.16 Refineries Page 4.18 4.17 Petrochemical plants Page 4.19 4.18 Power generation from gas Page 4.21 Author: Huong Luong Lien December 1998 Contents Page 2 Chapter 5. The energy market 5.1 Crude oil Page 5.2 5.1.1 Crude oil reserves and production Page 5.2 5.1.2 Crude oil quality Page 5.3 5.1.3 Crude oil price Page 5.4 5.2 Petroleum products Page 5.5 5.2.1 Petroleum product supply Page 5.5 5.2.2 Petroleum product demand Page 5.5 5.2.3 Petroleum product quality Page 5.7 5.3 Natural gas Page 5.8 5.3.1 Natural gas supply Page 5.8 5.3.2 Natural gas demand Page 5.10 5.3.3 Natural gas price Page 5.11 5.4 Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) Page 5.12 5.4.1 LPG supply Page 5.12 5.4.2 LPG demand Page 5.14 5.4.3 LPG price Page 5.15 5.5 Coal Page 5.16 5.5.1 Coal supply Page 5.16 5.5.2 Coal demand Page 5.17 5.6 Electricity Page 5.18 5.6.1 Electricity supply Page 5.18 5.6.2 Electricity demand Page 5.21 5.6.3 Electricity price Page 5.22 Chapter 6. Exploration performance 6.1 Definitions Page 6.1 6.2 Exploratory drilling Page 6.3 6.3 Exploration history Page 6.14 6.4 Reserves Page 6.21 6.5 Geophysical surveys Page 6.24 6.6 Malaysia - Viet Nam Commercial Arrangement Area Page 6.28 Author: Huong Luong Lien December 1998 Contents Page 3 Chapter 7. Existing and future field developments 7.1 General field characteristics Page 7.1 7.2 General field development styles Page 7.2 7.3 The Bach Ho offshore oil field Page 7.3 7.4 The Rong offshore oil field Page 7.8 7.5 The Dai Hung offshore oil field Page 7.10 7.6 The offshore oil field at Malaysia - Viet Nam Commercial Arrangement Area Page 7.13 7.7 Some future field developments Page 7.17 7.7.1 Rang Dong offshore oil field Page 7.17 7.7.2 Ruby offshore oil field and other discoveries in Block 01 Page 7.21 7.7.3 Lan Tay/Lan Do offshore gas discoveries Page 7.25 7.7.4 Hai Thach offshore gas & condensate discovery Page 7.26 Chapter 8. Exploration and development costs 8.1 Exploration cost estimates Page 8.2 8.2 Offshore field development cost estimates Page 8.4 8.2.1 Fixed platform oil field development cost estimates Page 8.7 8.2.2 Fixed platform gas field development cost estimates Page 8.10 8.2.3 FPSO tanker oil field development cost estimates Page 8.13 8.3 Onshore field development cost estimates Page 8.15 8.3.1 Onshore oil field development cost estimates Page 8.15 8.3.2 Onshore gas field development cost estimates Page 8.17 Chapter 9. Fiscal Regime 9.1 Structure of Vietnamese PSCs Page 9.1 9.2 Illustration of workings of Vietnamese PSCs Page 9.5 9.3 Components of Vietnamese PSCs Page 9.7 9.3.1 Royalty Page 9.7 9.3.2 Cost recovery Page 9.8 9.3.3 Income tax Page 9.11 9.3.4 Profit sharing Page 9.11 9.3.5 Transfer tax Page 9.12 9.3.6 Export duty Page 9.12 9.3.7 Bonuses and Fees Page 9.13 9.3.8 State Participation Page 9.14 9.4 Recent development in Vietnamese fiscal regime Page 9.15 9.5 Worked example of a Vietnamese PSC Page 9.16 Author: Huong Luong Lien December 1998 Contents Page 4 Chapter 10. Fiscal analyses 10.1 Government Take Page 10.1 10.2 Impact of individual fiscal components Page 10.3 10.3 Fiscal comparison Page 10.8 10.4 Reserves made uneconomic because of Government Take Page 10.9 Chapter 11. Economics 11.1 Objectives Page 11.1 11.2 Cases analysed Page 11.1 11.3 Approach Page 11.2 11.4 Net Present Value per barrel or per million cubic feet graphs Page 11.3 11.5 Minimum prospect reserves graphs Page 11.5 11.6 Economic assumptions Page 11.7 11.7 Market assumptions Page 11.8 11.8 Development assumptions Page 11.8 11.9 Onshore north Viet Nam - oil exploration and field development economics Page 11.12 11.10 Onshore north Viet Nam - gas exploration and field development economics Page 11.17 11.11 Offshore shallow water north Viet Nam - oil exploration and field development economics Page 11.22 11.12 Offshore shallow water north Viet Nam - gas exploration and field development economics Page 11.27 11.13 Offshore shallow water south Viet Nam - oil exploration and field development economics Page 11.32 11.14 Offshore shallow water south Viet Nam - gas exploration and field development economics Page 11.37 11.15 Offshore deep water south Viet Nam - oil exploration and field development economics Page 11.42 Appendix A - Reserves Definitions Page A. 1 Appendix B - Conversion factors Page B. 1 Appendix C - Abbreviations Page C. 1 References Page R.