ALAMEDA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION COMMISSION ALAMEDA COUNTYWIDE TRANSPORTATION MODEL PLAN BAY AREA 2040 UPDATE Draft Documentation Report January, 2019 Alameda Countywide Travel Model Project #: 19752 January 10, 2019 Page i TABLE OF CONTENTS Alameda Countywide Transportation Model .......................................................................... i Plan Bay Area 2040 Update.................................................................................................................................. i Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... i List of Tables ............................................................................................................................. iii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................. v Summary ................................................................................................................................. vii Key Features ......................................................................................................................................................... vii Key Updates .......................................................................................................................................................... ix Selected Consistency Results ............................................................................................................................. ix 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Objectives and Requirements of the Model Update ....................................................................... 1 1.1. Summary of Key Features ............................................................................................................................ 2 1.2. Summary of Key Updates ............................................................................................................................ 5 2. Study Area and Transportation Analysis Zones ................................................................ 8 2.1. Alameda County TAZs .................................................................................................................................. 8 2.2. Other Bay Area TAZs ................................................................................................................................... 16 2.3. San JOaquin County TAZs .......................................................................................................................... 17 2.4. External Gateways ...................................................................................................................................... 18 3. Transportation Networks ................................................................................................... 21 3.1. Road Network .............................................................................................................................................. 21 3.2. Transit Networks ........................................................................................................................................... 32 3.3. Bicycle Network ........................................................................................................................................... 34 3.4. Future Transportation Network Updates ................................................................................................. 34 4. Socioeconomic Data ....................................................................................................... 38 4.1. Input Databases .......................................................................................................................................... 38 4.2. Alameda County Socioeconomic Data ................................................................................................ 39 4.3. Other Bay Area Socioeconomic Data .................................................................................................... 42 4.4. Socioeconomic Inputs for San Joaquin County .................................................................................... 42 4.5. Special Generators ..................................................................................................................................... 42 4.6. External Gateways ...................................................................................................................................... 44 5. Model Process ................................................................................................................... 45 5.1. Workers per Household and Auto Ownership Models ......................................................................... 46 Kittelson & Associates, Inc. Oakland, California Alameda Countywide Travel Model Project #: 19752 January 10, 2019 Page ii 5.2. Trip Generation ............................................................................................................................................ 47 5.3. Trip Distribution ............................................................................................................................................. 49 5.4. Mode Choice ............................................................................................................................................... 50 5.5. Time of Day ................................................................................................................................................... 51 5.6. Trip Assignment ............................................................................................................................................ 51 5.7. Feedback ..................................................................................................................................................... 55 6. Model Validation .............................................................................................................. 56 6.1. Validation Data ........................................................................................................................................... 56 6.2. Road Screenline Validation ....................................................................................................................... 57 6.3. Transit Validation ......................................................................................................................................... 66 6.4. Bicycle Validation ....................................................................................................................................... 67 7. Model Forecasts................................................................................................................ 69 7.1. Forecast Results............................................................................................................................................ 69 8. Model Consistency ........................................................................................................... 84 8.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 84 8.2. Product 1 ....................................................................................................................................................... 85 8.3. ProductS 2 and 3 ......................................................................................................................................... 89 8.4. Product 4 ....................................................................................................................................................... 93 8.5. Product 5 ....................................................................................................................................................... 93 8.6. Product 6 ....................................................................................................................................................... 94 8.7. Product 7 ....................................................................................................................................................... 94 8.8. Product 8 ....................................................................................................................................................... 94 8.9. Products 9 and 10 ....................................................................................................................................... 97 8.10. Product 11 .................................................................................................................................................. 97 8.11. Products 12 and 13 ................................................................................................................................. 103 Appendix A: Plan Bay Area 2040 Project List ..................................................................... 107 Appendix B: Calibration of Model Components................................................................ 108 Calibration Data ............................................................................................................................................... 108 Workers per Household and Auto Ownership Models ..............................................................................