THE WORLD BANK A Decade of Action in Transport An Evaluation of World Bank Assistance to the Transport Sector, 1995–2005 THE WORLD BANK GROUP WORKING FOR A WORLD FREE OF POVERTY The World Bank Group consists of five institutions—the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the International Development Association (IDA), the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), and the International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID). Its mission is to fight poverty for lasting results and to help people help themselves and their envi- ronment by providing resources, sharing knowledge, building capacity, and forging partnerships in the public and private sectors. THE INDEPENDENT EVALUATION GROUP ENHANCING DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS THROUGH EXCELLENCE AND INDEPENDENCE IN EVALUATION The Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) is an independent, three-part unit within the World Bank Group. IEG-World Bank is charged with evaluating the activities of the IBRD (The World Bank) and IDA, IEG-IFC focuses on assessment of IFC’s work toward private sector development, and IEG-MIGA evaluates the contributions of MIGA guarantee projects and services. IEG reports directly to the Bank’s Board of Directors through the Director-General, Evaluation. The goals of evaluation are to learn from experience, to provide an objective basis for assessing the results of the Bank Group’s work, and to provide accountability in the achievement of its objectives. It also improves Bank Group work by identifying and disseminating the lessons learned from experience and by framing recommendations drawn from evaluation findings. WORLD BANK INDEPENDENT EVALUATION GROUP A Decade of Action in Transport An Evaluation of World Bank Assistance to the Transport Sector, 1995–2005 2007 The World Bank http://www.worldbank.org/ieg Washington, D.C. ©2007 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: [email protected] All rights reserved 123410090807 This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. Cover photo credits: Upper left, Vietnamese road maintenance workers, courtesy of Hernan Levy; lower left, New Delhi traffic congestion, © Reuters 2002; upper right, nonmotorized transport, Mali, by Curt Carnemark, World Bank Photo Library; lower right, Quay crane on new docks, Sri Lanka, by Dominic Sansoni, World Bank Photo Library. ISBN-13: 978-0-8213-7003-2 ISBN-10: 0-8213-7003-0 e-ISBN-13: 978-0-8213-7004-9 e-ISBN-10: 0-8213-7004-9 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7003-2 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data have been applied for. World Bank InfoShop Independent Evaluation Group E-mail: [email protected] Knowledge Programs and Evaluation Capacity Telephone: 202-458-5454 Development (IEGKE) Facsimile: 202-522-1500 E-mail: [email protected] Telephone: 202-458-4497 Facsimile: 202-522-3125 Printed on Recycled Paper Contents vii Abbreviations ix Acknowledgments xi Foreword xiii Executive Summary xix Management Response to IEG Recommendations xxiii Chairperson’s Summary: Committee on Development Effectiveness (CODE) xxvii Statement of the External Advisory Panel 3 1 Study Rationale, Objectives, and Organization 3 Role and Nature of Transport 5 Evaluation Rationale, Objectives, and Organization 5 Evaluation Method 9 2 Global Trends, Bank Strategy, and Sector Outcomes 9 Global Transport: Trends and Issues 11 Foundations and Relevance of the Bank’s Current Transport Strategy 13 Update of Sector Priorities 14 Sector Outcomes 19 3 Bank Support to the Transport Sector 19 Trends in Bank Lending to Transport 22 Overall Project Performance 23 Modal Comparisons 27 Regional Lending Trends 29 Nonlending Assistance 37 4 Promoting Private Sector Involvement 37 International Trends in Privatization 39 Bank Performance in Encouraging Private Sector Involvement 43 Overall Transport Performance 47 5 Road Maintenance, Institutional Development, and Environmental Protection 47 Maintaining the Assets 51 The Importance of Good Governance 54 Protecting the Environment 59 6 Transport and Poverty 59 Rural Transport and Poverty 61 Urban Transport and Poverty 63 African Transport and Poverty A DECADE OF ACTION IN TRANSPORT 69 7 Internal Bank Performance Factors 69 Project Preparation 69 Project Supervision 70 Lending Instruments 70 Results Measurement 72 Transport Sector Staffing 75 8 Findings, Lessons, and Recommendations 75 Findings and Lessons 80 Recommendations 83 Appendixes 85 A: Study Logic and Statistics 115 B: Background Paper Summaries 141 C: MIGA Support for Transport Projects 147 D: IFC’s Experience in the Transport Sector 155 E: Bank Transport Staff Interview Results 161 F: Stakeholder Interviews 163 G: Bank Documents and Transport Sector Board Activities 165 Endnotes 171 Bibliography Boxes 30 3.1 Sub-Saharan Africa Transport Policy Program 41 4.1 Mobilizing Private Finance for Road Development in China 50 5.1 Performance-Based Contracting of Road Maintenance in Argentina 55 5.2 Lessons on Reducing Urban Pollution 60 6.1 Improving Road Access in Rural Lesotho and Ghana 62 6.2 Bangabhandu Jamuna River Bridge, Bangladesh—How Transport Infrastructure Can Stimulate Development 65 6.3 The World Bank Group Africa Action Plan 66 6.4 Lesotho Road Rehabilitation Project—Limited Capacity Impedes Reform Figures xv ES.1 Private Sector Investment in the Transport Sector 13 2.1 Trends in IBRD/IDA Lending by Major Sector Groups, 1991–2004 15 2.2 Private Sector Investment in Transport Projects in Developing Countries, 1990–2005 20 3.1 Trends in IBRD/IDA Commitments for Transport, Fiscal 1995–2005 20 3.2 Trends in Average Project Size, Transport Sector Projects versus All Other Projects, Fiscal 1995–2005 27 3.3 Trends in IBRD/IDA Commitments for Transport by Region 28 3.4 IEG Ratings for Outcome, Sustainability, and Institutional Development (Approval Year Fiscal 1995–2006) Tables 21 3.1 IBRD/IDA Commitments for Transport ($ billions): Share of Top 5 and Top 10 Countries, Fiscal 1995–2000 and Fiscal 2001–06 22 3.2 IEG Ratings of Overall Project Outcome, Institutional Development, and Sustainability by Exit Year, Fiscal 1992–2006 iv CONTENTS 23 3.3 IBRD/IDA Commitments for Transport ($ billions): Distribution by Transport Mode, Fiscal 1995–2000 and Fiscal 2001–06 24 3.4 Transport Sector Board Projects, Fiscal 1995–2006: Analysis of Performance by Physical Infrastructure Objectives 31 3.5 Count of Research Papers, Sector Reports, Publications, and Notes/ Newsletters: Transport Sector versus Other Sectors, 1995–2005 31 3.6 Economic and Sector Work Strategy Documents by Region, 1995–2005 40 4.1 Analysis of Performance by Private Sector Development Objectives, Transport Sector Board Projects, Fiscal 1995–2006 54 5.1 Analysis of Performance by Institutional Development Objectives, Transport Sector Board Projects, Fiscal 1995–2006 64 6.1 Distribution of Urban Projects and Components, Closed and Active (1995–2005) 72 7.1 Average Economic Rate of Return of Transport Projects, Approval Years 1995–2005 v ABBREVIATIONS AAA Analytical and advisory assistance BOT Build, operate, and transfer project CAE Country Assistance Evaluation CAS Country Assistance Strategy CREMA Contratos de Recuperación y Mantenimiento (Argentina) DBFO Design, build, finance, and operate project EIB European Investment Bank ERR Economic rate of return ESSD Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development (Network) ESW Economic and sector work EU European Union GDP Gross domestic product HDM-4 Highway Development and Management System IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization ICR Implementation Completion Report IDA International Development Association IEG Independent Evaluation Group IFC International Finance Corporation IFI International financial institution IMF International Monetary Fund IR Indian Railways JNP Jawaharlal Nehru Port km Kilometers LICUS Low-income countries under stress MDG Millennium Development Goal MIGA