AGENT-BASED MODELING IN INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS by Aaron B. Frank A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of George Mason University in Partial Fulfillment of The Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Computational Social Science Committee: ___________________________________________ Chair of Committee ___________________________________________ ___________________________________________ ___________________________________________ ___________________________________________ ___________________________________________ Director of Graduate Studies ___________________________________________ Director, Krasnow Institute for Advanced Study Date: _____________________________________ Fall Semester 2012 George Mason University Fairfax, VA Agent-Based Modeling in Intelligence Analysis A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at George Mason University By Aaron Benjamin Frank Master of Arts Georgetown University, 1999 Bachelor of Arts Boston University, 1997 Director: Robert Axtell, Department Chair Computational Social Science Fall Semester 2012 George Mason University Fairfax, VA Copyright © 2012, Aaron B. Frank All Rights Reserved ii Dedication For Desmond Saunders-Newton, an exceptional mentor and friend whose influence is felt every day. iii Acknowledgments I am deeply indebted to many people who offered their assistance, advice, experience and encouragement over many years. I would like to thank my chair, Robert Axtell, and my committee, Steven Bankes, Matthew Hendrey, Timothy Hoyt and Hilton Root for their patience in enduring and guiding me through multiple changes in scope, structure and topics. Likewise, James Olds and the Krasnow Institute for Advanced Study provided a supportive home from which to conduct my research and see this project through to completion. During my research I was fortunate enough to interview several members of the intelligence community and policy makers who shared the benefits of their wisdom and helped keep my research focused on matters that were relevant to praxis: James Bruce, Joseph Eash, Leon Fuerth, John Hanley, Barry Leven, Carmen Medina, Paul Pillar and Jennifer Sims are all deserving of more thanks than I can provide. I would also like to thank the numerous scholars and practitioners whose time and correspondence, often quite extensive, enriched my research, provided an opportunity for discussing ideas, and offered important refinements to my thinking. Likewise, my peers and colleagues at Booz Allen Hamilton, National Defense University, BAE Systems, LMI, George Mason University, Icosystem, the Santa Fe Institute and elsewhere were all exceptionally generous. Amongst them, I owe David Cedel and Maciej Latek a special debt of gratitude for their technical assistance and support, while Elisa Bienenstock, Adam Korobow, Joseph Mait, Harold Scott and Wayne Zandbergen provided just enough prodding to keep me focused on finishing. I would also like to thank Karen Underwood and Colleen Spears for their assistance in getting me across the finish line. The ideas of this project were planted many years ago and cultivated by four mentors who consistently pushed me to think about intelligence analysis and opportunities to improve its practice. My father, Forrest Frank, Art Hulnick, Barry Leven, and Desmond Saunders-Newton each provided encouragement and insights that allowed me to look past the limitations of my own experience and studies by reaping the benefits of theirs. Finally, I need to thank my wife, mother, and grandmother for their endless support and creation of an environment that allowed me to pursue my studies for as long as I needed, and probably longer. Amy Frank, Ilene Friedman, and Bea Friedman made this possible. iv Table of Contents Page List of Tables .................................................................................................................... vii List of Figures .................................................................................................................. viii Abstract ................................................................................................................................x Chapter 1 : Introduction .......................................................................................................1 What is Agent-Based Modeling? .................................................................................... 1 Agent-Based Modeling and Intelligence Analysis ......................................................... 3 Mapping the Argument ................................................................................................... 5 Chapter 2 : Models, Simulation, and Agent-Based Modeling ...........................................17 What are Models? ......................................................................................................... 17 Models, Simulations, and Games ................................................................................. 25 Bounded Rationality ..................................................................................................... 30 The Limits of Mental Models ....................................................................................... 33 Types of Formal Models ............................................................................................... 40 The Uses of Models ...................................................................................................... 57 Agent-Based Modeling ................................................................................................. 78 The Benefits of Agent-Based Modeling ....................................................................... 88 Chapter 3 : Intelligence Analysis and Tradecraft ..............................................................90 The Three-Level Problem of Intelligence Analysis ...................................................... 91 Producer/Consumer Relations ...................................................................................... 94 Structured Analytic Techniques and Analytic Tradecraft .......................................... 130 Structured Analytic Techniques and the Manual Method .......................................... 161 The Challenge of Strategic Intelligence ...................................................................... 185 From Structured Analytic Techniques to Model-Centric Tradecraft .......................... 195 Chapter 4 : Intelligence and the Philosophy of Science ..................................................199 Intelligence and the Philosophy of Science ................................................................ 200 What is Science? ......................................................................................................... 221 Science, Time, Induction, and Intelligence ................................................................. 256 Intelligence Challenges to Science ............................................................................. 268 A Microscience for Intelligence Analysis .................................................................. 277 Chapter 5 : The Schelling Segregation Model .................................................................284 Thomas Schelling’s Segregation Model ..................................................................... 284 Schelling Segregation Model as an Analytic Tool ..................................................... 294 Extending the Core Segregation Model ...................................................................... 312 Chapter 6 : Developing Theories and Hypotheses ...........................................................314 Coercion and Community Formation ......................................................................... 314 v Enforcer Agents .......................................................................................................... 315 Out-Group Experiments .............................................................................................. 321 In-Group Enforcement ................................................................................................ 329 Summary ..................................................................................................................... 338 Chapter 7 : Coordination between Collection and Analysis ............................................343 Agent-Based Modeling and Intelligence Collection ................................................... 345 Collection Capabilities ................................................................................................ 347 Collection Demonstration ........................................................................................... 354 Summary ..................................................................................................................... 387 Chapter 8 : Structure and Agency ....................................................................................389 Modifications for Microscience Experimentation ...................................................... 389 Experimenting with Agency and Structure ................................................................. 393 Analysis of Simulation Results ................................................................................... 398 Summary ..................................................................................................................... 417 Chapter 9 : Conclusions ...................................................................................................421